Did Mario Pino cause Hard Spuns loss??
 

Slow break, and pulling him back, rating, instead of gunning him?

Or you going to call it his one time clunker?

I certainly don't think Pino "caused the loss." No jock could have won that race with that horse. Was it a "one time clunker." Maybe. Or maybe he was simply highly overrated. We'll know more after his next start.

I don't think 4 wide, then 5 wide helped any.

Thought I read connections felt he was not handling the track which is a common excuse but can obviously be true. If so my question is why bring him back for the Rebel if that is indeed the plan?

I'm pretty sure Pino was riding to instructions.

Because he was handling the track just fine....and that is a wildly over-used excuse.

Agreed. That was what I was getting at.

Larry Jones said "he was out there on the deepest part of the racetrack the entire race. I went over the charts of the weekend races, and it was obvious there was a real inside speed bias". However, could he explain why Officer Rocket went wide down the stretch OUTSIDE of Hard Spun and blew past him while gaining ground???

Well, thats the big question. Either Hard Spun threw in a clunker and it has nothing to do with the track and jockey or Officer Rocket is a definite horse to watch this Spring. Would lean to option #1

Well, I certainly wouldn't agree with you! I believe O.R. is a much better horse than Hard Spun. We'll see in March.:D

I think you are reading what I am saying the wrong way. Saying that since the point of the thread was that Pino cost him the race, I feel it was neither the track or the jock.

By that same token I do not believe Officer Rocket will be a force this Spring on TC trail. Now if you are talking about what horse I would prefer in the Rebel, I still would lean to Hard Spun just based on the fact that while I do not believe track or jock had much effect, I still think one clunker is not enough to give up on himn and he will prove to be a better horse if both stay sound down the line

Lets say Pino guns him from the gate and he sweeps around the field and takes the lead on the backstretch. How strong would he have been down the lane? He would have still got beaten. This horse slows down dramtically in the later stages of his routes.

The answer to the original question is neither. It wasn't a clunker and the ride didn't cost him the win.

Heck, you might say that he improved because his beyer came back at 95, same as his first route despite having a more difficult trip.

Jones did say that unless they change something with the track that he very well might go somehwere else. I don't know what exactly he expects them to change but not coming back for the Rebel is definitely an option.

His 2 turn debut was nothing but perfect, taking off like a rocket. He also trained lights out on this track, so I think larry is fishing. His speed is his racing style, and Pino took him out of it. Never had a chance rating him. He would have had a better shot gunning, and using his talent, not hiding it.

Considering how comically slow the pace was---Pino wouldn't have had to gun him to make the lead.

And another poster mentioned Officer Rocket---he saved every inch of ground in that race

Okay, so you say he was taken out of his favorite running style, his talent was hidden, etc. Why then was the Beyer the same as the previous race? Shouldn't all of these negative factors have showed up in his speed rating?

Okay, but since Pino didn't gun him, shouldn't we have witnessed some awesome burst of speed from him on the backstrech and turn. I still don't get how if this is such a big derby prospect that with that MILD bit of trip trouble that he had in the Southwest, he still ends up slowing and getting passed in the stretch run of a one mile race.

I don't put to much faith on Beyer figs. They don't win races, and get betters thinking wrong.

He was four wide on the first turn and at the half-mile pole, he was five wide.

That will take allot out of any horse.

I didn't see the trip as being that bad. To me it looked very ordinary given the post. He showed me very little in that race.

Good luck with him, you'll need it.

It's only an observation, and a discussion, not Derby pick.

Yeah he sure seemed to hate the track when he was breezing 36s and 47s on it.

Are you referring to Hard Spun? If so again I agree. Dont think it had anything to do with the track. However lets be realistic. Other poster said they felt Officer Rocket would be a better proposition this Spring. I would strongly disagree

Dude, How about you start a thread on how you think Hard Spun is a bigger threat than Officer Rocket! It seems to be that your the only one having a hard time following your own thread! And yes, I whole-heartedly feel that Officer Rocket will turn out to be a much better horse than the un-proven Hard Spun!

umm Dude. My initial response if you read back a bit was that I read Larry Jones saying that he did not handle the track. It was you who started the whole debate. I simple said it was one of two things. Either Hard Spun did not handle track or Officer Rocket is that good of a horse and said I was leaning to option 1. you made it into a debate. Dude

ride was ok, horse ran the same as he usually does, at least beyer number wise

I should have had a different subject.
It should have said, did Mario play any role in the bad performance of HS. This horse never rated in his explosive 2 turn race. His speed gave him the perfect ground saving win.

I have to respectfully say your wrong about horse ran the same as he usually does

even with your different subject, my answer is the same, no. Mario did not play any role in Hard Spuns bad performance because it wasn't a bad performance. It was a bad performance only in terms of the overblown expectations that existed before the race.

By any objective measure that I have looked at the performance was nearly the same as the last one.

What is it that makes you say that this is a wrong opinion? You said you don't rely on Beyers? Do you use other figures? How do you know it was a bad performance?

If you believe the figure that came back for that race is accurate---than, it was certainly the best performance of Hard Spun's life...as he obviously was best in that race, inspite of finishing 4th.

HS tripped a 101 speed fig in the Bris, no one close has done that, so yes, overall speed figs, not Beyer figs. The horse that won was the worst horse in the numbers games. If your horse is a runner, and not a rater, you don't try to rate your horse, it's a disaster in the making. This horse got off a step slow, and did not try to grab the rail with his speed. His 2 turn win at K, was sizzle time, not rate time.

I tend to agree....initially I was a big critic of the ride, to the point where I said Pino had ridden him for the last time...I will say it was combination of a couple of things one of which was the ride....the other and it was posted here was that Jones or Pino paid no attention to the rail bias in the races prior....he was never put into position to win.....now I have a hard time with the excuse of he didn't like the track because one of the reasons (beside a cough) that they didn't ship to the Risen Star was because of how much he loved the track. Now the last reason and I think the one none of the "fans" want to talk about is he's not that good......he's a nice horse, but he's not as good as the ink said he was......

His Bris number for the Southwest was a 98 which is statistically insignificant from his previous 101. The Beyer numbers were the same.

Also, HS had the one race with a 101. Why assume that was the norm and not his previous high of 95? Most people thought the 101 was a mere stepping stone and he would keep moving forward. Sometimes the aberration IS the 101 and the horse regresses to the previous levels. What happened is that he didn't improve his number and others did especially Teuflesberg.

What you fail to take into account is that these are developing three year olds. Just because no one had run a 101 number before doesn't mean that they won't move forward and do so now.

You are looking backward and saying that he regressed because of the way the PP's looked on that day, instead of looking at how the other horses ran.
If you look at HS's past performances before the Southwest and ignore his 101 figure, he looks quite average in that race.

Did Mario Pino cause Hard Spuns loss??
 

No.

Eric

Da Hoss, help us out with the Merasmag quote.....what does it mean?

The biggest reason Hard Spun lost is because he wasnt as fast as the 3 who ran ahead of him. Any pinhead would have given him the same trip, and any pinhead would have gotten the same result, not winning.

According to Randy Moss on Wire 2 Wire the trainer wanted the horse to rate and had been working hard in the morning on getting him to rate in this race. Unless you think Randy Moss doesn't know anything about the going ons at Oaklawn that pretty much absolves Pino.

Exactly.

And when you watch the race, and look at the fractions of both that race, and the others on the card at the same distance, it's pretty obvious to jump to that conclusion...without even hearing it reported by anyone.

Talkin' Horses with Dick Downey 1200 show today:

Interesting

Question: Eastpointe, MI
Dick, love The Profile, great info. I was wondering your thoughts on a McGee horse named Dubious Miss. He won only at six furlongs, but from 13 lengths back to first was impressive. Think he may stretch out? Also, your take on Hard Spun. Thanks, VL.
Answer:Downey: Dubious Miss, a colt with an odd name, has raced only that one time, and it happened in late October. He’s been working well lately, but a Derby run appears unlikely at this point, at least to me. He looks like he could go a mile no problem. I note that Dubious Miss is entered Saturday at Turfway in a $25,000 allowance race going one mile.

Hard Spun was literally hung out to dry in the Southwest. I’m not sure I buy the theory he didn’t like the track that day. He’d loved that track during two previous workouts. I think he lost the race when he didn’t get clear early. Frankly, I was surprised that didn’t happen. He’d shown great early speed in previous races, and this race was only a mile, albeit at two turns. Teuflesberg was allowed to set moderate fractions out front.