Picking tracks
 

Quick question from a newbie: I've read that it may be best to concentrate your handicapping efforts on one or two tracks. There is no local track here, so I have to pick one out-of-state. How do you determine which tracks you want to focus on? What kind of criteria do you use to choose one track over another?

How much are you going to bet? If it is a decent amount, you have to avoid the smaller tracks. If you are betting $20 a race or less, I'd recommend starting at the smaller tracks. The money is easier, in my opinion.

Two ways of thinking. The 'classier tracks' GP, NY, SA have the best horses (partly because of bigger purses) who to me run more to form than the lower level claimers at the 'secondary tracks' however they also draw the sharpest players. It's just a matter of preference. But by concentrating on one or two circuits you have the advantage of learning training patterns and track bias' unique to that circuit as well as other particulars.

I live in the Chicago area yet prefer to play NY over Arlington or Hawthorne but my real game is Jai Alai. LOL

You prefer NY over Arlington? I find this amazing. For as much you have been to Arlington, I would think you know the nuances of Arlington as much as I do. I always do well at Arlington, just piss it away at Hollywood/Belmont/Saratoga/Del Mar/Calder throughout the day

(whatever Internet spell check guy)

Nuances?

I agree. I like Arlington, and tend to do pretty darn well there, and then get sucked into playing other tracks to kill my winnings.

Must learn better this year!

Mug,

I'd make that decision based on where there are jocks/trainers/horses who you already have determnined are your 'favorites' as a fan... If you like Johnny V, Prado, etc., Shug McGaughey and Barclay Tagg, you follow NYRA-Gulfstream... If you like Baffert and Garrett Gomez say, you follow California.. Along those lines. If you have a small base of fan interest already, you'll know right away "where" you want to focus your attention as a fledgling bettor...

everything will change this year, it is pointless to even try, only playing turf races here this year and maybe some all's on the poly in exotics, hoping they run some sequences with two turf races in them as those will be the only ones I am playing. They usually run the 7th and 9th on the lawn or the 5th and 7th so I should be ok

I know. I can't wait. From a betting perspective it's going to be incredible. I'm the total polar opposite of you on this one.

Can't wait to identify how the track is playing and what kinds of race styles are doing well. Prices everywhere.

You know my angle at Arl (involves a teller) so 'cappin is pointless. I do enjoy the park though as you know. LOL

if the track proves to be like Keenland it will be a dream as all the speed players (most) will get gobbled up in the stretch

What track can you get the most exposure from? I know all the tracks are out of state but on your cable system, is there a track that has a nightly or weekly recap show, with the days races and best races from the week on it? For instance in the NY area on fox sports NY, every night there is a recap show at about 5:30 with the days races on it. It's a great way to watch a lot of races in a short time and learn the levels, trainers, jocks etc.... If you have TVG they normally replay all the days races from the tracks that they cover in the morning. Or you could suscribe to a race replay site on line. I personally do not like watching races on the computer, but sometimes that is the only way.

so if you play more then two tracks thats to much. in my area i have fair grounds, louisiana downs, evangeline downs, delta downs not the best horses around but you can apply the same principles to them as sau belmont gulfstream and so on.

Well when you say play only 1 or 2 tracks-

Are you handicapping the night before, or right up to post time of a given race? I do all my handicapping (except for contests that bar this) 5 and 10 minutes before a given race's post time.But I also bet more than1 track. If I'm sitting at a table with 6 big screens with 6 different tracks, then more than likely at 1 point I'll bet at least a race froim each one.

But with that being said, I like the smaller tracks. I'm a longshot player, and I think you're more likely to hit bombs at those tracks than at NY, Florida, Cali, etc. I especially like the night tracks. Mountaineer, Chuck-town,Evangeline, etc etc etc. Because you get a lot of solid wide-open fields.

It's a losing scenario to try to bet every track running, unless you handicapped the night before and picked your spots. I am talking from expierence here. Every time you look up,"Hey 3 minutes until the 3rd at Tampa" then "5 minutes until Delaware's 5th". How much handicapping can you do in 4 minutes? Always miss something. Now I pick the two tracks I feel I do the best at. A NY track and either Gulfstream or Arlington.
You are right about the night tracks, but the only problem are some of those 4 furlong races and some of those 2 turn 6 furlong races.

I think that what you've read is excellent, and probably first-hand from experience, advice. And I would take that advice. NY, Kentucky, or SoCal--all large circuits would be my first choice. And no, I don't think low-level claiming events are good for newbs. The lure of longshots is far too great, and you end up in the red from the git-go. It often takes a longtime, seasoned, astute handicapper with decades of experience to make money in those ranks.

The other thing I would be SURE to do in choosing my track--or two. Study charts-results of that track EVERYDAY. Print them out. Learn everything you can about its players, the jocks, the trainers, horses, etc. Watching race replays is good. Studying charts, when a newbie, can be more helpful though. Learn results on paper, then begin the business of learning how to watch races with the idea of learning what to watch for.

Math,
I did mis-speak a little bit. If it's like 2-3 minutes to post, I'm not gonna be in a rush to bet every track in front of me. But! I do look from 5-10 minutes to post. Why? You get a good indiciation of what the odds of the horse are gonna be. As opposed to morning line odds that can be way off and odds at 20 minutes to post that can fluctuate sverely in the minutes counting down to post.

Your point about missing all of the necessary info if you don't give yourself enough time to look is a good point, but my argument to that is- if I only have 5 minutes to look, it also forces me to make up my mind if I'm gonna bet the race. A lot of times, especially in wide-open races, I'll be in a conflict of who I wanna include in my bets. Who do I wanna put in? Who do I wanna leave out? If post time is coming up. It forces me to choose. This has been both a profitable and and costly decision for me. But that way I'm forced to choose instead of locking myself in a 20 minute headache trying to decide who I'm betting on.

Still, that is an enormous amount of information to compute in a 5-8 minute range. I would rather concentrate on less tracks and be able to compute the information more thoroughly, then do one of those rush job (which I have done many times) and then end up losing to an AE horse that I did not even know was in the race. I just think in a wide open race, I think you are being forced to make a hasty decision.

Maybe it's also how much you look at then. Without trying to dig myself in a hole here, I feel I can most of the time look at most/all of the relevant factors in a DRF, spening maybe 30 seconds on each horse. If it's a 12 horse field and there's like 5 minutes left, it probably means I'm not bettin it. But... seriously I do a skim job of all the horses first, putting an x by the ones I like, a question mark by the the ones I'm considering, and leaving it blank for the ones I don't like. Then I look at the corresponding odds, and give every horse a more thorough look.

Agree or disagree, my style works. I get paid plenty. I'm sure your style works too. Different strokes for different folks.

One thing that can't be deinied in my humble opinion is this -

Lots of money is bet at the second tier tracks from people that don't have a clue

I live 15 minutes from Beulah Park and am a regular their once a week, used to attend more:o Watch the money in these races (pools). You will see lots of cash hit a certain horse right when the race gets up, usually 19 or 18 mtp. I can promise you, having been a teller at this track and a "regular" for a while that what happens is the barn crew gets in the house and they unload. They will stroll to the window, throw down some $20's and chill with a beer.

That is why I enjoy betting Beulah, when I am in attendance. I love to watch the barn cats stroll to the window, play it off and then see the horses. I AM TELLING YOU - it is unreal how much you can make if ya just watch the horses in the post parade at one of these 2nd tracks. After I read an article by Donna Brothers last year about what to look for in a horse in the post parade, and applied it to my hometown track, I am on fire.

No offense to these hard working folks, but alot of the barn help at my home track don't fire on 8 cylinders, ya feel what I am saying. So, when they make their way to the windows, they are betting like their is no doubt their pony is the winner.

At Beulah, and I would assume several other 2nd tier tracks, it is ALL ABOUT the Trainer - Jock angle. Also, Beualh has a CRAZY TRACK BIAS 99% of the time that I have FINALLY figured out. A little before the first race you acan watch the track crew working the track and almost figure it out. Outside is good, rail is hot etc.. Love it. But, ya gotta be their to get it.

I'm well aware that closers were the way to go at Keeneland's inaugural meet on Polytrack. That might hold true in the upcoming spring meeting too. But as long as I've been following Keeneland, which has been about nine years, I've noticed that the spring meeting was the one which rail and/or front speed was dominate. The fall meeting usually was pretty fair.

I'd keep an open mind early in the meet since the "conventional wisdom" is speed is not good. The surface is new, and not much is known about it except that some third rate tracks in the UK have it and Michael Dickinson trains his horses over the surface.

Since I am on a roll, let me also add this. I am only 10 minutes away from Scioto Downs, the Harness capital of Columbus:D . Early money in the pools is a GOOD SIGN in the Harness world in my opinion. I speak from my heart on this, the majority of harness races I bet I don't hardly look at the PP's. I look at the Driver - Trainer combo and a quick scan at the tracks this horse has been racing at.


I bet this exacta last night on that hunch and did well at The Meadowlands

2007-02-24 18:05:00 Bet* Meadowlands 9 Exacta $1.00 5+7+9/1+5+6+7+9 $12.00 $80.30

I was asleep when it ran, and checked the results just now. Using that angle.

Just my 2 cents

Try to understand how the trainer thinks ie is he setting a horse up for a race or is he using it to get it race fit. focus in on horses that like certain tracks tight bends usually suit forward running horses ,long straights suit sitters.
Focus on good jockeys for that track the better the jock is running the better the ride he is offered, The best jocks usually end up with the best rides as they make more money that way,
Hope this helps:cool:

I think you need to identify your strengths and focus on tracks that offer alot of races that you feel comfortable handicapping successfully. Personally, I tend to do much better in Stakes and allowance races, especially on turf, so I follow NY, Calder/Gulfstream, and sometimes KY. Saratoga tends to be by far my most successful meet because all the horses are relatively good horses and they have alot of graded stakes. If you're better at claimers or other lower level races, you'd be better off following tracks like Mountaineer, Evangeline, or Sam Houston. Just decide what you like to bet and what you excel in and follow that track as closely as you can.

Mug, I think that 'stick to one or two tracks' sentiment refers more to focusing on one or two tracks when handicapping so you don't end up playing the next race that is on your monitors. Many people tend to play the 'next available race' and since there are races going off at several tracks all day long, they tend to only spend a minute or two handicapping the race and rushing up to the windows. That style of handicapping can put a dent in your wallet real quick.

Just as an example, I sometimes go to the track with a buddy of mine who excels at cards (I HATE playing cards). While I am settling in reading my form and handicapping a race, my buddy blindly rushes up to the window to make a bet at whatever track is about to go off - then plays the next race, and the next, and the next. He sometimes is down $100 before I've finished handicapping one race and placed my wager. He needs that 'quick play' fix to feed his gambling jones that he is used to when playing cards. We generally split 'my bets' (he knows I'm a decent handicapper, so he wants part of my action), but there hasn't been a single time when he has won more than me at the end of the day. I can have a great day, and he ends up even or ahead just a little. Horse racing should be a slower paced sort of gambling adventure. Take it slow. Don't be in a rush.

Don't just blindly rush to play whatever race is about to go off is the main point. Study a little, make a decision and place your wager.

My advice for any noob would go something like this:

Your first goal should be to learn how to read the Daily Racing Form, and understand all the information that is presented. That is your Bible, and it takes a little time to learn to read it and identify the subtleties.

I'd also suggest a little supplemental reading when you aren't at the track, and to that end I'd suggest Andrew Beyer. Start with his book 'Picking Winners', then move onto 'Beyer on Speed', and finally 'The Winning Horseplayer'. Some people really hate the guy, but he's sharp as hell and I actually understood the little 'exercises' he presented in his books. If you don't see his example at first, re-read it.

Start with his first book, 'Picking Winners' and read the others as I mentioned them, as he builds on previous examples and reading them out of order is only going to make a difficult assignment more difficult.

Also, us handicappers are pretty much starved to share our knowledge with potential newcomers. Don't be afraid to ask some old fart sitting by his lonesome about his thoughts on a race. If you win a decent amount, buy him a beer or throw down a bet for him on a horse in the next race. DON'T just take his advice and pocket all your winnings. Take the opportunity to build a bit of commaradarie and show some gratitude and maybe you'll gain a short term tutor. (Beyer relates a story about someone he once helped cash large and got 'stiffed' afterwards in one of his books).

For a noob, I'd also suggest playing the larger tracks - the So Cal circuit, the Kentucky circuit, the Florida circuit, the NY circuit. Texas also has some decent tracks to play (Sam Houston and Lone Star). Most of those states have a track I'd stay away from. I don't like playing Fairplex in So Cal, Turfway and KY Downs might require a little more understanding of lesser known jocks and trainers in Kentucky (although I actually love playing those two tracks), Aqueduct in NY is $#!%hole I avoid. Calder in FLA is maybe a pass for me most days. Play the larger circuits like Hollywood Park, Santa Anita and Del Mar in So Cal. Belmont or Saratoga in NY, Churchill or Keeneland in KY. Gulfstream is the premeire FLA track (usually only one major meet is going in any state).

Playing the major meets will give you a basic familiarity with the top jocks, trainers, and even owners that will allow you to follow the bigger days of racing a little more knowledgeably than focusing on smaller tracks, and the friends that tag along on Derby day or Breeders Cup will be impressed with the knowledge you bring.

If that is a little more work than you are looking for, a few basic tips I'd give is bet to win, or play some cheap exotic bets like an exacta, daily double, trifecta or PK3. I really don't like place or show betting in most circumstances. The times I've hit on a decent 'across the board' (placing a win place and show bet on a horse) I'd have been much better off putting it all on that horse to win.

Also, I generally try to beat the favorite. I might take a shot with the favorite if I can get 2-1 odds or better, but to a complete novice going to the track on a lark I'd say focus on horses at about 4-1 to 10-1. Those horses will generally at least stand a decent chance of winning - as opposed to the 20-1 types that are usually longshots for a reason.

Really though, any track and any race has the potential to pay nicely, so the ultimate goal of winning can be achieved anywhere, anytime. Personally I think racing is a 'top-down' sort of learning curve. Learn on the big tracks to establish a baseline of knowledge, and then apply that knowledge at the smaller tracks when you are a little more savvy as a player.

One last note, if you are going after the 'big score' the 10 cent superfecta is available at many tracks, and it is your best friend. It can be played relatively cheaply, and there is a significant IRS advantage to playing it. In short, a $2 base SFC wager will be an IRS ticket with a payout of $602 or more (meaning you have to pay taxes on it). A $1 SFC wager will be an IRS ticket if it pays $601 or more. A 10 cent SFC bet will be an IRS ticket at $600.10 - but if you play that 10 cent ticket 10 times, you could conceivably cash up to $6001 without paying the tax man.

Beating the tax man is a lesson for another day though, and the SFC is a tough wager to cash on - so learn the basics first (although playing a small 10 cent ticket once in a while might pay off nicely, so don't be afraid to give it a go once you understand the basics).

Beating the tax man is a lesson for another day though, and the SFC is a tough wager to cash on - so learn the basics first (although playing a small 10 cent ticket once in a while might pay off nicely, so don't be afraid to give it a go once you understand the basics).[/quote]


VERY GOOD post Groundhog.

I especially liked the insight on the .10 wagers. I had read and thought about that before back in the ESPN board days, but it had left my potential playbook until you once more mentioned.

One addendum I will make......that we all know........as good American taxpayers.......is that all winnings should be declared as income. Whether the the withholding plateau is reached on the individual wager, or not.

I normally have at least a couple of signers each year.

But I also toss my losing tickets into a manilla envelope to offset the profit come tax filing time. I toss in my lottery losers, too!

I actually get a real kick going to the CPA and giving him the docs for my gambling winnings. It seems that's not all that common of an occurence.

Well, I've heard a lot of complaints about that 10 cent SFC wager being a 'piker bet', and some experienced players kinda turning their nose up at it and grumbling about getting shutout because some small timer was playing it.

It's a sweet deal though if you think about it. If you think your $1 SFC might pay $600-$6000, bet it in 10 cent increments and play it 10 times.

...but don't take all those 'would have been an IRS' tickets up to the teller all at once. They are obligated to combine them and tax you at the regular rate. Run them thru a self serve machine, or take them up to a teller one, two, three at a time - just don't go over $600 total in winners at a teller. Because really, you bet one for your wife, one for your friend, one for your grandma, one for the little boy that lives down the lane, etc. Right???

I don't think that is true, unless maybe you declare yourself as a professional gambler.

For the average fan going to the track once in a while (or even frequently) your non-IRS winnings are free and clear.

What you do need to do if you do have an IRS ticket is accumulate losing tickets that equal or exceed your winnings if you want to write off losing wagers (there is no shortage of losing tickets to be found at a track/OTB).

I'm no tax expert, but I don't think we are all expected to account for every winning and losing ticket we wagered.

Who keeps track of all that nonsense?

I just wanted to thank everybody for their input and advice. I have a better idea where to start, and in the meantime I'm going to keep reading the books. I ordered Picking Winners and Betting Thoroughbreds yesterday. Now I just have to pick the tracks I want to follow and study away . . .

Thanks again! :)

Go to the home of the sorest horses in America: Beulah Park.