Nobiz holds lead while Hard Spun drops
 

It's been a busy week at The Racing Dispatch as we get ready to launch a new feature within the next day (maybe hours). Meanwhile, votes are in and Nobiz Like Shobiz holds his lead in the poll while Hard Spun, who ran below expectations in Monday's Southwest, dropped considerably.

Results: http://www.racingdispatch.com/poll.php?year=2007&week=5

Inspite of the 107 Beyer, for a trainer who's won the Kentucky Derby 3 times, and will no doubt try to make the race with this horse at all costs, I see that Flying First Class didn't get a single top 20 vote from one person.

While, I don't personally like his Derby chances, it is a little funny to see him missing from the "others recieving votes" --- and seeing names like Pegasus Wind and Our Sacred Honor on there!

perhaps he missed the cut off? when did the votes for Travis' poll have to be in?

And how about Chace City? He got 5 votes.. and unfortunately, he's dead.

Well, his race was run a few hours before Hard Spun's loss....

And Hard Spun seems to have taken a hit in the rankings...which suggests the new voting occured after Monday.

Good point.

Which is why a good many of these people who are voting should not be.

Well, it does only take one person putting Chase City in 16th place for him to have those five points.

I guess I hadn't thought it through...which I guess, is why they didn't ask for my vote:o

I'm inclined to think the Chase City is an error on the voters part, I'll email them and find out. I don't check each and every vote, as we have a great panel and they know what's up and up.

As for Lukas' horse... he's no where near my top 20, until he wins a race that puts him in the mix. How is he on graded earnings?

I don't like him at all as a Derby horse myself.

However, he is the fastest 3yo in the country on Beyer figures---and when you take into account that his raw naked figure was 18 points faster than the Southwest Stakes winner---unless there was something funky in the wind data, he will quite likely also have run a MONSTER figure on the sheets...because they don't split route and sprint variants.

I would assume that the gap between the Lukas maiden and the Southwest winner, which is 7 points on Beyers, would be a little wider on sheet style figs.

Of course, no one took Medaglia D' Oro that serious, when he won an Oaklawn MSW race, also at six furlongs, in Feb of his 3yo season, by 4 lengths with a 101 Beyer.

And while it's true MDO could only manage a 4th place finish in the Ky Derby, he also had an abysmal trip in that race.

The reason why I was surprised to see him make no ones top 20---is simply that there seems to be a pretty big talent deficiancy in this crop....and unlike quite a few in the top 20...at least this horse has a little talent. And when you factor in that his trainer has won the race three times, and will do everything in his power to get him into the race...I really expected someone to throw him on.

Not a bad argument actually, and this line is the reason why.

DWL has actually won the race four times, I shorted him one.

I think Lukas' horse has a world of potential. Although he did have things go his own way, who knows how good the second horse was. If the second horse comes back to run well, Lukas is in good shape. Soundly defeated him. He looked visually impressive too. I can't tout him over a proven horse yet though into a top 20 - but he's won I'm watching with interest.

It's pretty instinctive for people to take that stance. Even among the betting public. Not to beat a dead horse, but that's why the "proven" and "classy" Siphonic and USS Tinosa were 2/5 and 3/1 respectively, in the betting, for the '02 San Felipe. While the more talanted upstart Medaglia D'Oro was better than 8/1.

It was the legendary college basketball coach John Wooden who loved to say "I'd take talent over experience any day." He might have made a pretty good horseplayer as well.

The problem I have with this crop of 3-year-olds, is that outside of ten or eleven of them, I just haven't seen much at all in the way of genuine talent. And precious few of them have both serious talent, experience, and would figure to be effective at 10 furlongs.

Perhaps others have higher opinions of this crop right now. As much as I despise Lukas, and think this horse is probably another Cal Bred sprinter who he will ruin fast, I'd have tossed him in somewhere between 15-to-20, simply on the basis that he has run the fastest figure of any 3yo this year, and hasn't yet proven he's "not good enough."

Considering most people don't share my complete disdain for Lukas and his horses, that's why I was a little bit surprised to see that he wasn't one of the 73 horses to recieve a point in the scoring.

I feel the same way and keep hoping for a late bloomer(s)...

I understand you touting the quality of your voters. The including of Chace City by any of them takes away from the creditability of the whole bunch. Im sure Steve feels that this is not something that helps his credibility even tho he wasnt the on that did this.

There are almost always late bloomers that have an impact. That's one big reason why I didn't hesitate to take "All Others" in the Future Wager.

Part of the fun for me now will be watching those 5-2 horses (actually 2.6-to-1 horses) move into and up the Racing Dispatch poll.

--Dunbar

Like Liquidity alot. But he does need to win one I think somewhere along the line here to make me a little more confident.

Still waiting CP West. Anyone have any info on him? Appears he might be too late getting started to make inpact in Derby. Too bad because I have liked him since maiden breaker last year

Some people will give just about any excuse not to like a horses chances in the derby. :eek:

To think that just two short years ago, we had a seasoned 2 year old in Afleet Alex as the Kentucky Derby favorite. I don't believe that the problem is lack to talent in this year's crop, but, rather, lack of experience in order to try to evaluate the crop. For me, Street Sense won going away over the Churchill Track so he's the only horse that I'm taking very seriously right now. After the Florida Derby, Wood Memorial, Arkansas Derby, and Santa Anita Derby, hopefully, praise God and other dieities, we might know a whole lot more.

Steve,

Are you going to post your ballot on here for us? Interested to see how last weekend affected your support of Hard Spun, who I see has zero first-place votes now.

Biz flew around that 1 mile, I thought it was to much. Lets see what Tagg does prior to possible next call.

One of the horses I'm probably most interested now at this point, Ravel will only be making one more start in the SA Derby before the Derby, which will be his 5th lifetime start. :eek: I hope Imawildandcrazyguy wins at this point, he made 5 starts just between Sept & November!

.....Flying First Class
 

Well hell, as of right now I LOVE his chances in this years crop!!!

They are now reconsidering that plan. He might go in the Santa Catalina or San Felipe. Still wouldn't shock me if he won the San Felipe to go straight to the Derby from there.

How do you figure?

We passed out lifetime PPs of all horses prior to nominations and he was in the file. So, he was receiving votes based upon that. To be honest, I didn't know he was dead either but he has since been removed from the database.

I certainly do not think this situation hinders the credibility of our panel as I know some of them post here and would agree. Thanks for checking out the site, we appreciate it, and keep reading!!

hey Travis...please tell Pat Cummings that this reader really enjoyed the piece on Curule:)

I will.. hadn't had a chance..

They had a write-up on Flying First Class up on DRF's website now.

Lukas seems very excited about having the now-rare chance to ruin another exciting prospect.


"I'm definitely not worried about this horse going two turns," Lukas said. "This is a big, long-striding horse that will run from here to the Rocky Mountains.

"He's got me getting up in the mornings."

:D
It almost wouldn't be a surprise if he actually made him run to the Rocky Mountains...

By the sounds of it Belgravia might be on lay-up for awhile...but there is another groovy son of Mr. Greeley...Ketchikan :)

who will not even be three on derby day...

He, Scat Daddy, Adore the Gold and Hard Spun will all be 'underage'.

In the EHorse betting exchange, Nobiz Like Shobiz is the favorite, and can be backed at odds of 10/1.

Only four horses are priced at odds of 25/1 or less. They are...

Nobiz Like Showbiz (10/1)
Ravel (13/1)
Street Sense (15/1)
Any Given Saturday (20/1)

Many horses are availabe at odds of better than 100/1

Notable among them include Adore the Gold, EZ Warrior, Birdbirdistheword, Buffalo Man, Day Pass, Drums of Thunder, Imawildandcrazyguy, Noble Court, Storm in May, and Vicarino among many others.

Stop stealing my sleeper Derby horse!

I'm surprised you dropped Hard Spun that far.

Thought I didn't post it on this board before the race, I strongly felt he would lose the Southwest and said so before the race---I really saw a lot of circumstancial things against him going into that race.

Honestly, the more times I watch his race on Monday, the more I seem to fall for it.

I think he'd easily beat that same field again in a fairly run race, and with his rider putting him in the race early on.

I guess the question was---how good was that field? Like you, I would also have him at #7 on my Derby list....but I would have had him in that same spot going into the race.

If I was more confident in the validitiy of the 100 Beyer figure the race got, I'd even be a tad bit tempted to move him up a spot.

Is there a Great Hunter (GB) or Great Hunter(IRE) because you seem to have a 2 Great Hunters in your top 20