ml odds for colonial cup
 

9th (5:40)
Colonial Turf Cup S.
Distance: 1 3/16 Miles Surface: Outer turf Open Age: 3 Year Olds Stakes
Purse $1,000,000.
Prg.# PP Horse Jockey Trainer Wt. Claim $ Equip. Med. ML
Hunting Print SCRATCHED 0 0
Sir Classic Chris SCRATCHED 0 0
Proudinsky (GER) SCRATCHED 0 0
1 1 Showing Up Velasquez C Tagg Barclay 120 0 L 6-1
2 2 Stream Cat Leparoux J R Biancone Patrick L 120 0 7-2
3 3 International Cat Tejera E A Abreu Reynaldo 116 0 L 30-1
4 4 Outperformance Castellano J J Violette Richard A Jr 118 0 L 10-1
5 5 Roman Dynasty Luzzi M J Pletcher Todd A 116 0 L 8-1
6 6 Prime Diamond Dominguez R A Sciacca Gary 116 0 L 30-1
7 7 Lewis Michael Guidry M Catalano Wayne M 116 0 L 15-1
8 8 Rock Lobster Rocco J S Jr Dickinson Michael W 116 0 L 15-1
9 9 Unbridled Behavior Guidry M Bailes W Robert 116 0 L 20-1
10 10 Can't Beat It Castro E Wolfson Martin D 116 0 L 20-1
11 11 Yate's Black Cat Douglas R R Romans Dale 116 0 L 15-1
12 12 Chin High Kaenel K Pessin Neil L 120 0 L 20-1
13 13 Go Between Gomez G K Mott William I 118 0 L 4-1
14 14 Kip Deville Kaenel K Dutrow Richard E Jr 116 0 L 9-2


Exacta, Trifecta & 10 Cent Superfecta, 1st Half Daily Double, 2nd Leg Pick Three

6-1 on Showing Up. Is this guy smoking something? I would love to see it, but I am thinking 7-2 at best.

6-1 morning line is fair considering he's never raced on the turf.. but you're right, he'll never go off at odds that high.

He is the only horse the average person has even heard of. People always bet Kentucky Derby horses, especially when they carry the same silks as Barbaro. I also know of someone making a very large bet on him, so unless the pools are really big, which I doubt, he is likely to be 3-1 or shorter.

Here are my odds....

1 1 Showing Up Velasquez C Tagg Barclay 120 0 L 2-1
2 2 Stream Cat Leparoux J R Biancone Patrick L 120 0 5-2
3 3 International Cat Tejera E A Abreu Reynaldo 116 0 L 50-1
4 4 Outperformance Castellano J J Violette Richard A Jr 118 0 L 15-1
5 5 Roman Dynasty Luzzi M J Pletcher Todd A 116 0 L 12-1
6 6 Prime Diamond Dominguez R A Sciacca Gary 116 0 L 75-1
7 7 Lewis Michael Guidry M Catalano Wayne M 116 0 L 12-1
8 8 Rock Lobster Rocco J S Jr Dickinson Michael W 116 0 L 8-1
9 9 Unbridled Behavior Guidry M Bailes W Robert 116 0 L 30-1
10 10 Can't Beat It Castro E Wolfson Martin D 116 0 L 20-1
11 11 Yate's Black Cat Douglas R R Romans Dale 116 0 L 10-1
12 12 Chin High Kaenel K Pessin Neil L 120 0 L 30-1
13 13 Go Between Gomez G K Mott William I 118 0 L 4-1
14 14 Kip Deville Kaenel K Dutrow Richard E Jr 116 0 L 6-1

Showing Up's odds will drop like a rock from 6/1. People are going to see the "KyDerby(G1)2000k" and "6th" in his past performances and be all over him. This race is absolutely wide open!!!

That looks more like what we will see. I think Stream Cat, Showing Up and Motts horse are likely to all be around 3-1. You do have the luxury of putting in 75-1 and 50-1 shots, something the guy who set the ML really can't do without upsetting owners/trainers. I think Rock Lobster should be the 4th choice and KD the 5th, but they will overbet Dutrow.

I'll take the french connection.

I think the Barbaro connection will get a ton of money on him too. The Jacksons are going to the race and you know Barbaro and the Jacksons will be all over the local tv and newspapers. I hope their horse runs a big one for them, although I know for a fact they were rooting a little more for Barbaro in the derby. I guess a homebred always gets a little extra rooting from the owners, although they knew all spring that Barbaro was the better of the two.

I think Showing Up wins this for fun, but I'm also looking at Roman Dynasty.

Probably a good pick but I hope they overbet him because of Pletcher.

not sure who ill pick/bet but i have to root for the chitown connections of calabrese/catalano/ and the longtime kingpin in the chicago jocks room....the guid

didnt his bro just get fedral cork screwed...

who the guy in the paper with the same last name connected to the mob that they ran a story on in the tribune a couple of years ago? i think mr calabrese(the owner at the track) actually sued the paper for misinformation regarding that, no relation at all i believe. are you talking about something else maybe?

could be i saw it on the news yesterday..

Showing Up isn't going off at 6-1. The guy setting the line must have just looked at how he never ran over the turf. Even with a large field I see him at 8-5 when the gates open.

I cant believe you guys think that Showing Up wins this race. I do not like this horse at all in this spot. The horse has talent and a great upside, but I really feel he is going to be lucky to finish in the top 3. But we will see.

I will bet against him but I suspect he beats up on these horses. I talked to a guy in Ocala that knows some people in NY and most think he is better on the grass than he is on the dirt. One guy said he is "a freak" on the grass.

Yeah I have heard that as well. But I do not believe it. I prob wont even bet the race, but he will have to show me he is good on grass. I just dont think he is all that special.

Isn't Lewis Michael the horse who barely lost to Sunriver in the Peter Pan? And had done most of his winning on turf? I feel that this form is better than Showing Up's for this contest.

I have to agree 100% Ann. I just dont see Showing Up doing anything in this race.

So you will bet against Showing Up even though you suspect that he will beat up on the horses he is racing against. May I ask why? Is this your regular handicapping/wagering strategy?

I also find this next part fascinating.
You talked to "a guy" who knows "some people" and "most" think he is better on grass and "one guy" said he is a "freak" on the grass. This seems like a rather tenuous link for inside information deemed worthy of posting. I also find it odd that so many people would have such strong opinions about SU on the grass before he even has raced on the grass a single time. How do you earn the title of being a "freak" on the grass with no grass races?

I read the following and called my friend who bred a horse that Tagg now has in his barn and he told me that one of the "guys" at Belmont said he is tremendous on the turf. I plan on betting against him if he is a short price, but only because I question how far he can go. If he were 4-1 I would take a chance he could go the distance, but not at 8-5. My handicapping strategy is based strictly on value.

"He loved it,'' Robin Smullen, assistant to trainer Barclay Tagg said when asked how Showing Up handled the turf. "He just has a completely different stride on the turf than on dirt.''

Smullen said that exercise rider Simon Harris "said the horse doesn't pound the turf, whereas he pounds the dirt. He's got high action on dirt, he doesn't have any high action on turf.''

I think he is special, up to 8F. After that I just don't like him but he might be able to go the distance. He looked ok in the derby up to 9F and he needed more foundation. He might just be faster than these horses.

Okay then, I understand better your comments. I guess why do you have the distance question? I thought he looked pretty decent a 10f in the derby.

Screw Showing Up. Maybe he takes to the turf, but odds are he's gonna find traffic breaking from the rail with 13 horses outside of him. In a 14 horse field on the turf, the last thing I'm going to do is take a horse at 9/5 ... 4/1 maybe but no thanks at 9/5 especially when he hasnt ran on the damn surface yet. Maybe everyone's "anoymous buddies" will be right and he is a freak on the grass, but I'll bet against that. I havent capped the race yet, but I like the Pletcher horse, the Live Oak horse, the French connection, and Lewis Michael - he seems to have turned a corner. Not sure if this is a betting race for me or not, but the payoffs should be great!

I agree. I won't begin handicapping in earnest for a couple of days but with the size of the field I'm fully expecting to find some decent value and won't be taking any low odds on this one.

worth noting that Showing Up's sire, the son of Mr. Prospector, Strategic Mission ran almost all his races on turf. His first 2 were dismal on dirt, then was switched to turf for his next 22 starts... You don't see a son of Mr. Prospector with turf credentials very often but Strategic Mission's are huge.

Showing Up could very well be a monster on the turf. And Strategic Mission could become a huge turf sire.

No horse in this field be below 3-1 odds.

for your viewing pleasure

http://www.drf.com/drfDownloadPastPe...DATE=24&RACE=9

Strategic Mission was a really good turf horse. I saw him finish second to Altibr when Altibr broke the course record at Keeneland for the mile in the Shadwell Turf Mile. Sadly, Altibr died a couple years ago. I have to go with Showing Up in this one too because of he impressed me in the derby and he should like the turf and I like Tagg horses on the turf.

such a shame about Altibr. it was minor surgery too. are there any othe Mr Ptospectors that sire turf stars?

It was a shame. I really liked that horse. Love those mile turf races.

Yes he is the son of Strategic Mission. Strategic Mission actually stands in NY.