5/3 (CD) 139th KY OAKS: Flashy Gray KO'd with foot bruise
 

1. Beholder (Mandella)
2. Rose to Gold (Santoro)
3. Unlimited Budget (Pletcher)
4. Dreaming of Julia (Pletcher)
5. Close Hatches (Mott)
6. Flashy Gray (Mott)
7. Princess of Sylmar (Pletcher)
8. Midnight Lucky (Baffert)
9. Silsita (Pletcher)
10. Seaneen Girl (Flint)
11. Pure Fun (McPeek)

Manuka Honey not going..

That opens things up for last.

Emollient to the Black-Eyed Susan..

Major contender for me. Very disappointed.

Is this suppose to tell us that close hatches is doing pretty well? or more or less trying to keep them apart?

It's more about Mott hearing that PG1985 liked her.

Stop. You have been on her since Saratoga. I just think she's a nice horse. If Julia doesn't repeat that Gulfstream race Emollient had a chance just like 4-5 others do.

Name the last horse that was trained by Pletcher who repeated a winter Florida performance and lived to tell about it.

A better idea would be for DrugS to create a list for Pletcher trainee's that have ran significantly higher BSF/TG Sheet figs at GP and never replicated them.

Some of these owned by E Robshams and friends come to mind,Quality Road, etc.

Fred I'm against Julia. If they have that 2 day pick 3 I'll be using Unlimited Budget, Close Hatches and Midnight Lucky. I'll wait until tomorrow to decide about Pure Clan. Budget being my A. I really like her.

I doubt anyone beats DoJ but I do like this filly a lot.

(I know they weren't spectacular fields but I think she'll go off at huge odds and will be sneaky good). :)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cZu7lm205Oo

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0T3pQgFSve4

I'm sure they took that into consideration.

Looking at PPs for Oaks contenders....Nothing but 1s and 2s for just about every horse at every call. 10w going into the first turn?!:eek:

I'm of the opinion that the fastest horse should and typically does win a race but it's hard to ignore the pace scenario here. It is possible that everyone tries to rate and a horse like Beholder is able to get a rather easy lead....

If the race were to collapse is Unlimited Budget the most likely beneficiary? That's my initial thought.

Wouldn't Pure Fun be the one to pick them up if it does collapse?

Paul

One would think, but I'm afraid she McPeeked.

She has run a very unconventional campaign this year but is certainly talented. She should get a dream set up and will be a huge price. Maybe she isn't the same horse she was at two but I am intrigued.

Paul

I agree. Her campaign with the two poly races will definitely clutter her form. I don't really understand the logic behind her placement this year, but it could have been McPeek fell behind schedule this winter at GP. I laughed when he was touting her in DRF for the Lexington...

Because of the pace senerio I think she will take more action than would normally be justified, at least in the multirace sequences.

I get that the pace dynamics could collapse the race, but I have a hard time envisioning Beholder, Dreaming of Julia, Midnight Lucky and Unlimited Budget ALL sh*tting the bed in this race and giving Pure Fun a chance to steal it.

This is going to be a fun race.

Unless everyone else grabs Beholder doesn't have a prayer in the Oaks. She has got soft trip after soft trip and beat absolutely nothing since the Breeders Cup.

Not following this logic. I was against her in the BC because I thought she was simply a sprinter. She has proven otherwise. If she gets the lead and it's hard to make up ground that day at CD she has a shot.

I'm not saying that she will win but I'm certainly not tossing her.

Can you explain your theory a little more?

Why would one assume that it would be to close? There's about 4 other big speeds. Good luck to her, if she wins she is much better than I thought she was. She's literally my second throw out right after Julia.

You may very well be right in tossing those two. You may also be tossing the Exacta. We'll find out soon enough.

Midnight Lucky Fastest 3 Year Old Period!
 

I think she goes 1:47.12 and wins pressing a :46.1 pace just off Beholder,Draws off and sets new track record!
Dreaming of Julia and Beholder fight it out for second money while Close Hatches,Unlimited Budget and Silsita are left 7 lengths back wondering why the winner didn't run the next day!:eek:

One of these speeds will relax and have a big shot, but I'm going to go deep on closers in the verticals. Looks like a fantastic betting race.

1 Silsita 20-1
2 Midnight Lucky 4-1
3 Beholder 7-2
4 Unlimited Budget 7-2
5 Seaneen Girl 20-1
6 Princess of Sylmar 20-1
7 Pure Fun 30-1
8 Dreaming of Julia 3-1
9 Rose to Gold 15-1
10 Flashy Gray 15-1
11 Close Hatches 6-1

Did they bring in the morning line maker from Gulfstream for this race?

9-2 on Midnight Lucky

When do you think the pp's will be out for the Oaks?

Seems about right to me - going back to at least 1980, no filly has won this race without starting as a 2yr old. Admittedly, i don't know how many have tried, so this could mean absolutely nothing, but her and Close Hatches both lack 2yr old experience.

Good call on her price. I thought the morning line maker might bring her down a little because of the projected race dynamics.

That draw is brutal for Close Hatches. Will have to gun to avoid 5W first turn. Taking her off my top line

I like her a little and it doesn't really bother me--I don't think she's really a speed horse and this makes it more likely that she'll find herself off the pace.

Why gun with all the speed?? Why not revert to the running style showed when breaking her maiden.

This is what I am hoping for!

totally agree with all the speed drawn inside i think it sets up perfect for a stalking trip...maybe a little wide early but she is by no means a need the lead type

Flashy Grey an Oaks SCR..
 

Foot bruise..