CONTEST: The 'Top 5' Thread -- Trifecta Box
 

As discussed today on ATR, with serious preparations complete, attention turns to individual decision-making regarding contenders and bet structures. As was the case last year when tabbing Paddy O'Prado, I had to declare a selection a week ago for the XpressBet Derby Wagering Guide. I'm 'married' to Shackleford as my top choice for Saturday, and am very comfortable with building my plays around him.

Earlier today I worked to rank the 20 into groups of 5, and the group on top feel to me most likely to feature a winner and board hitters. Archarcharch (#2) and Toby's Corner (#3) were with Shackleford on my XpressBet Top 4, but here I have moved Dialed In to #4 replacing Pants On Fire. Animal Kingdom's Saturday work flagged him as an outstanding bottom wrung trifecta/superfecta candidate.

Please share your Top 5 candidates... We'll have a 5 horse exacta and trifecta box contest that I'll set up post-draw!

DERBY -- FINAL RANKINGS

1. Shackleford
2. Soldat
3. Dialed In
4. Midnight Interlude
5. Mucho Macho Man
--------------------------
6. Animal Kingdom
7. Archarcharch
8. Pants On Fire
9. Twinspired
10. Brilliant Speed
--------------------------
11. Nehro
12. Master of Hounds
13. Stay Thirsty
14. Uncle Mo
15. Santiva
--------------------------
16. Twice the Appeal
17. Watch Me Go
18. Comma to the Top
19. Decisive Moment
20. Derby Kitten

1. Uncle Mo
2. Archarcharch
3. Animal Kingdom
4. Dialed In
5. Master of Hounds

Archarcharch
Toby's Corner
Dialed In
Shackleford
Pants on Fire

Soldat
Stay Thirsty
Twinspired
Archarcharch
Decisive Moment

Right now, with a dry,fast track:

1) Dialed In
2) Shackleford
3)Animal Kingdom
4) Nehro
5) Arch Arch Arch

Here goes....

1. Mucho Macho Man
2. Toby's Corner Archarcharch
3. Twinspired
4. Animal Kingdom
5. Pants On Fire

1. Midnight Interlude
2. Dialed In
3. Uncle Mo
4. Stay Thirsty
5. Master of Hounds

Steve, What are your thoughts on Shackleford's work a couple days ago?

Long way to go still, but at this point I'm with Byk on the Shackleford bandwagon and am leaning toward making a Shackleford/Mo exacta box my largest wager on the race.

1. Shackleford
2. Uncle Mo
3. Archarcharch
4. Dialed In
5. Mucho Macho Man

Toby's Corner
Archarcharch
Uncle Mo
Animal Kingdom
Mucho Macho Man

It was an impressive effort visually, though many note that any worker under Tammy will go quick. I hope it wasn't too fast in the way a fast work can trigger a horse over the top. There are some detractors nitpicking the work for a couple reasons including him leaning on the right reign slightly late (Gary Young), and breathing with a bit of a raspiness (Mig and Caton Brader). But when asked, Dale and Tammy both told me independantly Saturday night that neither contention was accurate.

He certainly seems to have come out of it well, and galloped strongy again this morning.

1: Soldat
2: Archarcharch
3: Dialed In
4: Santiva
5: Decisive Moment

1. Archarcharch
2. Dialed In
3. Master of Hounds
4. Shackleford
5. Pants on Fire

(Edited to follow Steve's very clear rules....)

1. Animal Kingdom
2. Dialed In
3. Shackleford
4. Toby's Corner
5. Santiva

I need Archarcharch for a nice score in the futures. But, with seemingly everyone liking him, he's doomed.

Maybe I spoke too soon.

1. Archarcharch
2. Animal Kingdom
3. Soldat
4. Dialed In
5. Brilliant Speed

Paul

1. Archarcharch
2. Dialed In
3. Mucho Macho Man
4. Nehro
5. Brilliant Speed

1) Uncle Mo
2) Shackleford
3) Dialed In
4) Toby's Corner
5) Aminal Kingdom

1. Toby's Corner
2. Mucho Macho Man
3. Archarcharch
4. Brilliant Speed
5. Twice The Appeal

Dialed In
Twinspired
Archarcharch
Decisive Moment
Stay Thirsty

1. Archarcharch
2. Soldat
3. Uncle Mo
4. Dialed In
5. Santiva

You?

1- Nehro
2- Animal Kingdom
3- Soldat
4- Shackleford
5- Dialed In

1.Dialed In
2.Master of Hounds
3.Uncle Mo
4.Stay Thirsty
5. Pants on Fire

thanks
Ron

I find it amazing that so many differ on Archarcharch & Nehro.

Seems like people either really like one or the other but, rarely like both.

Toby's Corner
Soldat
Stay Thirsty
Decisive Moment
Dialed In

Mucho Macho Man
Uncle Mo
Dialed In
ArchArchArch
Nehro

Uncle mo
Dailed In
Mucho Macho
Santiva
Brilliant Speed


I think Uncle Mo wins by 4 lengths

Nehro
Archarcharch
MMM
Dialed In
Brilliant Speed (if wet)

Watch Nehro's work today and you'll be off him, he looked like garbage, stiff. 3 races in 6 weeks. Major underlay IMO

1.Arch
2.Uncle mo
3.MMM
4.Shacklford
5.Brilliant speed

Tobys Corner
ArchArchArch
Muho Macho man
Shakelford
Stay thirsty

Soldat
Midnight Interlude
Uncle Mo
ArchArchArch
Master of Hounds

1. Uncle Mo
2. Mucho Macho Man
3. Archarcharch
4. Dialed In
5. Midnight Interlude

soldat

mucho macho

archarcharch

comma to the top

twice the appeal

ArchArchArch
Shackleford
MuchoMachoMan
Animal Kingdom
Tobys Corner(out)
Santiva

1.Animal Kingdom
2.Dialed In
3.Santiva
4.Brilliant Speed
5.Shackleford


BOL Chuck

1- Nehro
2- Dialed In
3- Mucho Macho Man
4- Midnight Interlude
5- Pants On Fire

I'm debating whether it says something about the field or the horse that what seems to be the "it" horse (Shackleford) was an auto-toss 68-1 shot son of Forestry less than a month ago. Now, he's dappled as a motherf-er.