9/30-10/1 (SA): Super Sat. (5 G1's), Unzip Me; John Henry (G2)
 

I was looking forward to Dia De Pago stretching out here. Any word?

In general these are ok fields and races, but man that zenyatta stakes is bad, grade 3 at best

Other then the Juvenile races i dont see any real BC contenders.

Sunday, 10/1
 

SUNDAY OVERNIGHT

most of the BC contenders are on the sidelines not running. Its great aint it

Not Dortmund?

Wrong trainer.

No offense to the trainers that trained Mubtaahij but they are not baffert, have to take a shot he runs his best race in this spot. Its not much a field beyond Cupid who was only ok. Against Breakin Lucky in this spot, there is no gun runner but this is a better group then he has faced and will be overbet off that last.

Dortmund may get a great setup on the lead, I could bet him at the right price (6/1 or so seems fair).

6-1. He is going to be like 3-1.

oh that would be good cause I would rather bet the first time baffert horse

He feels like the most likely winner to me. His Saratoga race from last summer certainly wins this.

meh, dortmund scratched so likely no value in race. god its hard to bet this game

all those races on opening weekend and Gary Stevens is not riding in one of them

He has a mount in the Chandelier, would have ridden Dortmund had he not come out and is on the first AE into the Unzip Me. And has 5 other non-stake calls Fri-Sun.

He has not ridden that much in general this year. I think part of that has been Prat's emergence with some of the barns that used Stevens and also Kent's strong season.

Really as hired guns go, which is what he is, there just isnt that much stock to go around.

thanks guys Im a diehard fan and realize this is probably the last few months of him riding.

I even noticed that Thomas Proctor is not using him, along with Mandella

Proctor has been using Van Dyke who also has really become a favorite of Glen Hill Farm, basically giving them first call and traveling to ride their horses.

I dont think Stevens is doing anything differenct. I dont think he works horses so that has to hurt as well, very few guys can not work horses and still get premium mounts.

Proctor isn't just giving Van Dyke calls. He basically took him in as a surrogate son 5-6 years ago and has given him a classic apprenticeship rearing.

Stevens absolutely works horses in the morning. It should be mentioned that he only returned from the hip replacement in March.

fair enough...I knew the relationship was very tight with Glen Hill but did not know it went back that far. I never heard a bad word about him, he definitely has had some tough breaks.

Very good card and even with defections the stake races are still interesting.

Ladys Secret stakes - this is not a good race with the sit outs. that being said of the morning line is correct I will bet Faithfully pretty good, her last was disappointing but she had a bit of a trip into no pace and this has to be her goal so baffert will have her cranked. I think there are a LOT of questions about the 6/5 fav.

Oak Leaf stakes- feels like there is real pace in here and I am going to bet this race to fall apart a bit thus hurting Moonshine Memories who I think may struggle a bit to go two turns. I am using the 5,7 and 8. I of course bet Piedi Bianchi in her last race at 18/1 so I am very excited to try here again at 5/2 :( I will try Terras Angle who was a very lucky winner of a bad turf race but may have some room to improve and dont think durt will hurt and is a fair price. I also will use Just a Smidge, who has to work out a trip from the outside but reminds me of other baffert horses who have rebounded in this race after so so runs in the Debutante, think it happened last year.

Norfolk - Think this is straight forward between the top 3 ml choices, 1, 4 and 8 with the 4 the horse to beat. I could bet the 8 if the price goes above 4/1.

Yellow Ribbon - this is a great example, to me at least, how much easier it is to handicap turf races out west compared to east. Not counting the cavern of talent between the races but in terms of figuring them out its much easier. There is real pace in this race, horses 1-5 all have pace in their best form. What does Avenge do, she is the fastest pace but will she go here and set what will be a real pace, cause Mike is going to go as well. It feels like it will set up for the 7 8 or 10. 10 looks like the best horse, 8 likes cut in the ground, and the 7 will be tested against older for the first time and doesnt win much. I will use all three and then see how they bet it if there is value somewhere.

Goodwood - Just use the Baffert horses, the race are not good enough. No real value in the race without Dortmund.

I like 3,7 in the Yellow Ribbon. I like Baffert and Baffert in the baby races. Plan on playing a nice pick 3.....
2x2x3 and possibly cover Avenge with the 3,7.

If Elate is not the favorite she will be right there for the Distaff. I dont think she has to beat much in that race and feels like a single in many of that days bets.

Hopefully that fake horse takes some money off that trip.

Pace was legit but still sticking to that Moonshine Memories is running beyond her best right now, that was a stagger fest late.

Dont see anyone beating that horse

Probably not.

The last time I remember a horse coming in that I thought was this talented to the BC was Vindication. I am sure there are others but thats the comparison I would make.

man that was a great interview with Reed Baker....just honest. Dont think he can win here but hey, glad he took the shot.

Uncle Mo

Can the runner up turn the tables on Bolt D'Oro? That wide every step pressing trip is never ideal. Especially career start #2, and 1st time stretching out.

No chance, its not like he was beaten a few lengths.