11/27-30 (CD): KDFW -- Pool 1
 

KENTUCKY DERBY FUTURE WAGER POOL 1

1. Almost Famous 20-1
2. Bobby’s Kitten 50-1
3. Bondholder 50-1
4. Cairo Prince 30-1
5. Cleburne 50-1
6. Commissioner 50-1

7. Coup de Grace 50-1
8. Financial Mogul 50-1
9. Havana 30-1
10. Honor Code 15-1
11. In Trouble 50-1
12. Kobe’s Back 50-1

13. Mexikoma 50-1
14. Misconnect 50-1
15. New Year’s Day 20-1
16. Noble Moon 50-1
17. Pablo Del Monte 50-1
18. Ride On Curlin 50-1

19. Rise Up 50-1
20. Shared Belief 30-1
21. Strong Mandate 30-1
22. Tamarando 50-1
23. Tap It Rich 30-1
24. ALL OTHER 3YOS 2-5

The dates for the four Kentucky Derby Future Wager pools leading up to Derby 140 are:

•KDFW Pool 1: Wednesday, Nov. 27-Saturday, Nov. 30 (4 days)
•KDFW Pool 2: Thursday, Feb. 6-Saturday, Feb. 8 (3 days)
•KDFW Pool 3: Thursday, Feb. 27-Saturday, March 1 (3 days)
•KDFW Pool 4: Thursday, March 27-Saturday, March 29 (3 days)

The date for the only Kentucky Oaks Future Wager pool is:

•KOFW Pool 1: Thursday, Feb. 27-Saturday, March 1 (3 days)

Mexikoma at 50-1. I will bet that

commissioner, tamarando

Handle so far?

Tamarando's dirt races are not good. I wouldn't touch him with a 10 ft pole.

After 2 days, the win pool handle is $115,509.
All Others is 1-1.
Shortest individual odds are New Year's Day at 14-1.
Longest odds are Financial Mogul at 346-1.

Here are all the odds:

1*Almost Famous 23
2*Bobby's Kitten 21
3*Bond Holder 30
4*Cairo Prince 25
5*Cleburne 86
6*Commissioner 23
7*Coup de Grace 38
8*Financial Mogul 346
9*Havana 20
10*Honor Code 15
11*In Trouble 36
12*Kobe's Back 192
13*Mexikoma 86
14*Misconnect 28
15*New Year's Day 14
16*Noble Moon 120
17*Pablo Del Monte 40
18*Ride On Curlin 29
19*Rise Up 67
20*Shared Belief 51
21*Strong Mandate 27
22*Tamarando 25
23*Tap It Rich 20
24*All Others 1-1

It looks like there is just $7768 in the exacta pool. They don't give the fig, but the "Exacta matrix" figs add up to 7768.

http://www.kentuckyderby.com/racing-...l-1-final-odds

--Dunbar

346-1 is worth 2 bucks

shared belief at 51/1 has value, though i have my doubts he'll make it to the race.

Why?

Not to be rude but aren't the odds he'll actually start in the race like 20,000 to 1?

I think the 2 best 2yr olds that have ran already run in NY tomorrow. I also think the Jerkens horse in the same race has a chance to be very serious.

was only looking at pedigree.

the odds this pool is a crapshoot at best are 1/9...so being that its more entertainment value more then anything gimme the biggest number on the board...odds of getting in the gate are pretty much the same...what I'm saying is this pool is a waste of money but if you insist upon betting it ya better at least go for something resembling some form of value

Sorry, but "resembling some form of value" makes no sense. A dart thrower would have no worse than a 16% loss rate. There are ways to find value, but auto-picking the longest shot on the board is not one of them. Nor are the odds of getting into the gate "pretty much the same".

--Dunbar

If one dart pays 38 bucks and another dart pays 750 I'm going to opt for the 750...you can't handicap this race 6 months in advance and other then a lotto play its unbettable...and if its simply lotto and entertainment why not opt for the big number? If I recall pool 1 last year featured some big numbers who were in the derby and who in fact ran well...these were the same horses that people were laughing about in pool 1....so last year everyone was clueless in January so people being clueless 2 months further out isn't far fetched..these horses aren't developed and the public has seen what 2-3 races?

anyone have the final odds? Wanna print them out so I can eat crow or serve up some crow come may

CD should be embarrassed that as of 6am the following morning they do not have final (or ANY) odds up for Pool 1 on its website. Is it so hard to immediately have the odds posted, just like for any other parimutual bet?!

Here are the Win Pool will-pays, thanks to DRF. (Good luck finding the exacta will-pays; I couldn't)

Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 1 Final Odds
(No., Horse, Closing odds, $2 win will-pay)
1. Almost Famous, 30-1, $62.80
2. Bobby’s Kitten, 28-1, $58.80
3. Bondholder, 40-1, $82.80
4. Cairo Prince, 26-1, $55.60
5. Cleburne, 62-1, $126
6. Commissioner, 33-1, $69.80
7. Coup de Grace, 48-1, $99.20
8. Financial Mogul, 225-1, $453.40
9. Havana, 26-1, $54.20
10. Honor Code, 10-1, $22.80
11. In Trouble, 53-1, $109.80
12. Kobe’s Back, 84-1, $171.20
13. Mexikoma, 40-1, $82.80
14. Misconnect, 43-1, $88.80
15. New Year’s Day, 15-1, $32.40
16. Noble Moon, 63-1, $129.40
17. Pablo Del Monte, 59-1, $121.60
18. Ride On Curlin, 57-1, $117.40
19. Rise Up, 50-1, $102.80
20. Shared Belief, 32-1, $66.20
21. Strong Mandate, 27-1, $57.60
22. Tamarando, 42-1, $86.20
23. Tap It Rich, 45-1, $52.20
24. Mutuel field (all other 2014 3-year-olds), 4-5, $3.60
Combined handle for Pool 1 was $273,174, with $238,078 bet to win and $35,096 in exactas.

--Dunbar

I thought the field would have been hit harder then 4-5

The will pay for Tap It Rich at 45/1 should be more than the posted amount...just sayin

Nice catch! Here's the link to the drf's list, which includes the error:

http://www.drf.com/news/kentucky-der...nd-choice-10-1

I wonder if this has anything to do with CD (still!) not showing the results yet? Pretty weird to think it's a typo. You'd think they'd have something in place that would automate the calcs in a way that would make it impossible to have a discrepancy between amount bet, odds, and will-pays. It's not that complicated!

But the discrepancy between the odds and will-pay for Tap It Rich make it look like someone is typing in the numbers!

--Dunbar

Cd did a pretty bad job with this..i stated earlier the planning that went into this seemed limited. Its like they decided the week before the pool opened to have it..i just don't get if you profit from betting into the pool why would you not hype it a little bit? Nobody knew it was happening..if you did know it was happening ya didn't know when it opened or closed and if by some miracle you fell into the above ya didn't even know what the odds were..pool handle reflects all this...hopefully they figure it out next year

Yep, completely agree. And, remarkably, they still do not have the final odds posted. At the website it stills says this:

"Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool #1 was November 27-30, 2013.

The Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 1 is now closed. Check back here soon for final odds information."

They must be using a different definition of "soon" from the one I'm used to.

And the DRF article hasn't corrected the odds on Tap It Rich, either.

--Dunbar

Win Pool odds are finally up at CD's KentuckyDerby.com website.

http://admin.kentuckyderby.com/sites...P1%20Final.pdf

The Tap It Rich odds were corrected to 25-1 to match the $52.20 payoff.

Still no sign of the Exacta will-pays, though. And some of you want them to expand beyond 24 betting interests? They seem to be having trouble handling 24.

--Dunbar

4/5 is excellent value on the field. I put the over/under on horses in the field out of this group at 3.5.

Im not sure about that. I think the top 3 from the Remsen are all really good and IMO none of them project to have distance issues. Also they are all trained by guys I have no doubts about at all. Havana is solid enough, though he is likely a miler. But he will be a bull in Gulfstream preps. Both Baffert horses from the Juvy project to improve. The winner is slow now, but well bred and I think will be good come April and May. I dont see anyone else, but theres gotta be really good horses who have not run yet.

Tap It Rich is likely to be very good. But right now 25-1 is a bad underlay.

Do you know how long it is till the Derby? If I had known it would be 4/5 I would've bet it....that doesn't mean it wins. Let's see how many of these make it into the gate...as a starting point.

xpressbet and twinspires were two adw's that carried the wager...you could follow the odds online at either site...the field was even money until just minutes before the pool closed.

Of course I know. And recently cant miss horses like Eskendereya and Quality Road could not even get in the gate. My point was that I think there are very strong 2yr olds listed 1-23 or whatever. I still think Strong Mandate is going to go to Oaklawn and end up being very good and I did not even mention him. I believe the Derby winner is listed in pool 1.

Still a long ways off and will see the handful at least a handful or two derby hopefuls kicked off the trail for reasons other then talent.

It would be interesting to find out if CD actually turned a profit on this pool? Unlike daily racing, they had to actively market this opportunity, such as it was. I'd be surprised if the company cleared $10k when it was all said and done.

Joey, what are your most likely derby winners as of today?

I might have bet it, too, but I was on a plane returning from Thanksgiving during the last several hours of betting.

--Dunbar

News years day off the trail...burn up your future tickets..still a loooooooong way off...