Any Given Saturday gets my offical Derby endorsement
 

Only because I'm a self-important wreck of a person do I feel obligated to trumpet my Ky Derby pick out once I've concluded who it will be.

This is the first time in a while that I've watched all the preps before concluding whom I want to bet on. That's because I really despise this crop from a talent standpoint. Here's a look back at all my other internet board Derby endorsements from this decade...

2000: Fusaichi Pegasus (1st)
2001: Invisible Ink (2nd)
2002: Perfect Drift (3rd)
2003: Empire Maker (2nd)
2004: Rock Hard Ten (Didn't run)
2005: Giacomo (1st)
2006: Discreet Cat (Didn't run)

Any Given Saturday is this years lucky winner of my endorsement. Perhaps they will use that on his stallion catalog when he is retired. As for why.....

I understand this is not a horse of great talent...and one thing that isn't being talked about, is the incredible lack of heart this horse has. THREE TIMES he's had a top horse in his crop almost put away in a Graded Stake race, and in all three occasions, he let him off the hook.

* In the KY Jockey Club at age 2, he passed Tiz Wonderful, and had as much as a half length lead on him, with outside position, in the stretch. He lost.

* In the Tampa Derby, Street Sense skated up the rail on him, but this horse had more run left, and had NO BUSINESS not putting away that horse.

* In the Wood Memorial, off-the-far turn, he had Nobiz Like Shobiz, and stuck a head in front briefly...however, he just came off the steel and put up no fight through the stretch.

In a 20 horse field, at a 10 furlong distance, in a race which almost always features a fast early pace---being a faint-hearted grinding type of horse is a FAR greater advantage than it is under more tradition racing circumstances.

That's why I had no problems taking horses like Invisible Ink, Perfect Drift, Empire Maker, and Giacomo. While Barbaro won easily last year, a horse of NO ABILITY whatsoever named Steppenwolfer, was able to run 3rd in a race where he didn't get near as much setup as he would have in other Derby's.

Horses like Fusaichi Pegasus, Rock Hard Ten, and Discreet Cat just appeared to be irresistable talents to me...horses who I felt were cut out to be seriously great horses---which is why I took them inspite of the fact they don't exactly fit the profile of horse I'm biased too.

Any Given Saturday is the absolute right horse to bet in the Derby. I expect him to sit a mid-pack trip and be right there at the wire. If he doesn't win, I'm confident I know who the five or six right horses are to use with him in the exacta.

DrugS,
Just out of curiosity, do you think post position will matter much with him?
What if he draws 1, 19, or 20? Do you like him enough to still go with him from one of those posts?

As you know...I also had fine money acb on Inky and also had Jazil and Steppenwolfer in my first 4 last year.

Not to mention Benardini and Jazil winning the next two legs.




So I do speak with some authority when I say these 2 things:





2......I am not taking him...under any cicrumstances........also good.

Someone stole my first thing.

LOL, could your day get any worse by knowing these were my plays too and coming from me that isn't saying much! :D

Oh my God.





Could you seek another site....ma'amski?

I'm kidding....fine work.

Oh...do you squamish?

I will bet him from any post.

In a 10 furlong race--with such a long run into the turn, and a horse with his grinding style---post postion means very little.

I don't know for sure that AGS is the most likely winner in the race...perhaps Curlin might be....but he's a great price, has the right style, and I will be quite surprised if he isn't on the board....

I like him as well, at least at this point, and think he is a cinch to finish ahead of Curlin ( which may only guarantee him 14th ).

And why does Curlin have to run so badly?

Isn't he a prime candidate for the 'bounce' theorists?

I think he could win if the rest of the field were alpacas.

And Andy sure isn't one of those....

I think in his case it has more to do with the whole under-seasoned horse, for a shady trainer....

The Derby is a race that makes too many people try and be too clever. While the best horse doesn't always win....and in some cases...like with Holy Bull...they even run in the tank....but, Curlin is "the best horse"...and the best horse should rarely be so easily dismissed...imo anyway.

I love derby post position theorists.



This already looks like a race that could get stolen by some filthy sneak.

But I will reveal no more at this time.

If anything wins wire-to-wire, it would probably be Hard Spun....and with Mario Pino up, who's never seen a horse he didn't want to rate into submission, I doubt he'll be on the early lead.

I am far from convinced that Curlin is the " best horse ".

No you aren't.

If he isn't...who is?

Do you mind?



Saying it can make it happen.

Or didn't you know that?

I have like three weeks to figure that out....right?

with horses that are going so far..your pick is a close 4th in mine..