You're absolutely right. But it's the one race where everyone says "**** it" if they got the graded earnings. Let's just hope they shelf him until July if he doesn't do well. (in regard to Trinniberg)

Isn't He Clever was transferred to Asmussen.

The article on BH taps into the mindset a bit. It's the Derby... hard to say no when you have a shot. He knows he has a fast sprinter, and he's going to try and see how far he goes.

I think I would have a hard time passing the race too.

From the article...

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-raci...kely-for-derby

I hear ya, I really do, but lets be honest for a second. The horse has never been farther than 7 furlongs. He has no shot and will be lucky to not finish 20th.

I get all of the chance in a lifetime stuff. I'm more of a big picture guy. Maybe I'm being unrealistic because I'm not an owner, but it just seems like a move that does not have the horses best interest in mind.

Right, I totally agree. Unfortunately, every year there are horses in the race where the connections don't have the best interest of the horse in mind. But like you said, it's easy for us to play Monday QB when we don't own the horse.

It's because it's the one race where every owner feels if they got a chance to run in it, they do. I'd like to think that most owners when presented with other opportunities would come to their senses and not subject their horses to this race when they don't have a chance in hell. But this race makes everyone think crazy. And the way the race has been wide-open in recent years with longshots winning, its tough to blame them for having a shred of hope. I'm pretty sure this year will finally buck that trend, but tough to blame any owner for not trying. As I said, hopefully his connections rest him until July if he gets his butt kicked.

But seriously DaHoss, of course you're right. I'm trying to think- beside Lost in the Fog off the top of my head, what 3 year-old contender that probably would've had enough graded money was taken off the trail because he wasn't good enough or probably couldn't go the distance? I mean taken off for reasons beside injury?

http://www.drf.com/news/2012-kentuck...possible-derby

Official article on Isn't he Clever. Owner J. Kirk Robison quoted as saying- “The Derby is still under consideration, but I’ve always said I would never enter the Derby if I didn’t think the horse would be competitive.”

But I don't think you transfer him to Asmussen and base him at Churchill to not run him if you got a chance. If there are no defections, he'll probably show up in the Preakness.

It's Sunday night and my brain is fried from a long week so I can't think right now.

The difference between this and your usual hopeless Derby entrant is the never going two turn thing, which is kind of important. Honestly, I never even thought Trinniberg was on the trail. And I can't remember the last Bay Shore winner being considered for the Derby, but I'm sure it's happened.

But I get your and Travis's point.

The thing that you touched upon already, that makes this "surprise" entry particularly annoying, is that the trainer dude had spewed all the "I'm going to do the right thing by the horse" BS (that people on here lauded him for) only a week ago, and, predictably, has now gone back on his proclamation. Just like Bob Baffert with The Factor and Pete Miller with Comma To The Top last year.

he is the owner and trainer right? If he's the owner, then yeah, why all the BS in the first place?

Probably because he is full of BS.

The Factor didn't enter the Derby last year. Maybe you're thinking of Conveyance from 2 years ago?

There was an article where he said that the defection of Secret Circle, and therefore less speed in the race (his words not mine) helped make the decision...

At least Conveyance had run respectably going two turns (one of which was a second place to Endorsement, my 2010 early Derby pick was on the shelf for 20 months following the 2010 Sunland Derby).

The rumors I've been hearing is that Trinniberg was just sold for over a million dollars ... Parboo to keep a percentage and stay on as trainer.

i saw that too. but does he really think that with SC out, he'll be alone out front? that completely ignores bodemeisters wire to wire win over SC last out for starters.

i just think it's a shame they're going to take a horse who has never gone 2 turns and let him try it for the first time in the ky derby.

He's naturally way faster than Bodemeister and Hansen ... not even close. Elite six furlong sprint speed VS route speed.

If the rumors I'm hearing (off the record from a jock agent) are true -- he's probably only running because a strong majority interest in him was just sold.

Any chance he was bought by Godolphin to use as a rabbit for Alpha?

Houston set the pace in 89, he was the last to run. Gulch in 87, Zabaleta pressed Groovy into last place in 86, Proud Appeal in 81.
Bold Forbes,Secretariat and Damascus (3rd as the favorite) were the most successful.

What difference does it make where they try it? Would trying a 9 furlong allowance at Calder and failing harm the horse any more than doing it in the Derby? Not that it matters, but has anyone looked at his fractions in the Bay Shore race compared to his earlier efforts?? He was not flying....at all, or even anything remotely close to it. I dont' think he'll do well, but I'll keep an open mind about it. His Bay Shore fractions were dawdling by his standards, it may have been just pure luck and racing in a crappy field. But you know I think they were always thinking Preakness with him, and there may have been some method to the madness and a purpose to his 47.5 opening half in the Bay Shore....yeah the horse can go 44/45, but for a horse heading to routing the Bay Shore seemed to be a step in the right direction. And I really don't think it matters where you start the process. He'll do it or he won't.

The Bay Shore was into a very stiff head-wind down the backstretch and no one pressed him.

The vast majority of speed horses with more than a few starts in them will relax nicely if no one wants to be near them early and they get loose.

When you get an environment like the Kentucky Derby, a massive crowd to stir the horses up, and a 20-horse field where riders need to use horses a little early for position ... it's not a good situation for a horse like this. It's not a good situation for the other speed, stalkers, and even mid-pack types who all will naturally use themselves up more than they would otherwise.

In a 9-furlong alw route at Calder -- he'd be rating as relaxed as possible on a loose and unpressured lead.

I'm just looking for reasons to try to justify and that was the most logical one I could come up with was the Bay Shore was relaxed...even with the headwind it was still a half second slower than the Carter first half. For me, them talking Preakness was just as crazy and if you're gonna do the crazy the Derby is only .5 furlongs longer. I just don't think his entry is as big a deal as many are making it out to be. If they're serious they'll try to harness him somewhat and he's just another horse with speed.

His jockey Chilly Will is the worst gate rider at Presque Isle with a win percentage regularly over 5% ... he's actually a very competent and decent rider other than that.

If Trinniberg gets the Chilly Will special out of the gate and breaks in the air and about two or three lengths slow ... he will be running over the top of horses. That's the worst case scenario.

If they are going to run him -- don't mess around. Just make sure he breaks clean and don't fight him. He will carry his speed a whole lot further on a loose lead and no one in there right mind will go with him. Either way, he's going to finish dead last regardless of tactics. Optimizer will even plug by him before the 1/8th pole.

No, after The Factor won the 7f San Vicente, Bob Baffert was quoted in the DRF as saying "You won't see him going a mile and an eight anytime soon."

The next day (no exaggeration), Baffert said the colt's next start would be the Sunland Park Derby. He didn't run there, either, but the point was that he went back on what he said previously.

At least this Trinniberg guy waited 2 weeks.

Yeah, I do remember that and see what you're sayign now.

I actually think The Factor is way better off in a lot of 8.5f and 9f races than he is in these one-turn races. He folds when he gets pressure...and thrives on a loose lead.

The Factor was awesome in his Rebel win on a loose lead and blew the field away in the final furlong at 8.5f. They tried to rate him back in the Arkansas Derby and he bombed.

Trinniberg hasn't proven it yet -- but he's a true sprinter who won't route no matter the pace. The trainer is wildly better with sprinters than routers -- it's Scott Lake like statistically. Trinniberg has way more raw speed as well.

Wow. Get back to the Cleveland thread...please.

i think it makes a lot of difference. if i had a horse that i thought might go for 10f, i wouldn't have him only run up to 7f beforehand, and no further. i wouldn't only have run him in one turn racing with his first around two turns in a field with 19 other horses and him going 3 extra furlongs at the same time. typically you would work towards that with longer racing beforehand, wouldn't you?
if they only planned to go a mile at most, and now, two weeks out, he's going to try for another quarter-well, just how much training would have been needed to put more bottom into a horse that they can't manage now? he's got two weeks to prepare a horse to do a lot more than he's ever been prepared to do. and you're right, it's not so much where-but i certainly feel that 'when' has a lot to do with it.


in your later post, you suggested they would try to harness him somewhat. that would be a bigger mistake than running him in the derby. to try to take him out off his game...this horse will have no chance if they try to mess with his style. i saw where he worked 5f in 1:02, that tells me they're trying to get some speed out of him. huge mistake. it's too late to try to make a 10f silk purse out of what's a sprinting sow's ear. they should stick to the trial, and then try the preakness if they want to attempt to run off with a loose lead and hold on for the finish. but they shouldn't try to take away what natural speed he's got. he won't have enough than to get out front alone early, and he sure won't be there late.

I don't understand this comment. If you dont' like what I stated explain why....at least Calzone and danzig were able to do that. He ran a slower pace in the Bay Shore than his previous races, yeah, that's really crazy stuff there I said...stating fact. That's insane stuff stating fact like that.

The main thing I don't understand is why it would be ok to route him in the Preakness but not the Derby? I don't care that much they're running him. I guess DaHoss cares a lot.

thanks for your long reply--good stuff, but I still dont' understand this part...why would this be any different than what they're doing now?? running in the derby trial then the preakness, it's the exact same thing.

because the derby trial is a slightly longer trip than what he's run so far. it also gives them more time to get more stamina into him since the preakness is four weeks out, while the derby is only two. also, it's a bit shorter than the derby. instead of having a longer race than what he's run, with more training time, they're bypassing the frying pan altogether and throwing him right into the fire.
for many horses, the derby is their first at 10f, but it's not typically their first time around two turns. of course that has to happen sooner or later, i just think in trinnibergs case it's ill-advised at this point.

and my last part that you quoted-his strong suit is his early speed, it's what the trainer mentioned as to why now he wanted to go in the derby, that he felt t'berg would be alone on the lead. but then he has him work a slow 5f. if the early turn of foot is his strong suit, why would he want to take that one edge away? it's a concern for sure.

I'll Have Another...Is There Something Wrong
 

http://betfairhollywoodpark.com/racing-workouts

click on the April 19th workout and you'll see he is listed for the vet list

http://betfairhollywoodpark.com/horsemen-vets-list

Here though is no explanation....is it a mistake or something else going on?

Liaison IN - Martin Garcia named to ride - Baffert says he just hated SA surface... per Darren Rogers - Churchill Downs Comm Dept tweet

Three asterisks "denotes horse on list". I can't think of any other "list" other than a vet list.
Not only is there no explaination he is not listed. He is not alone.Of the triple asterisk horses only three from the previous day's workout are on the list. I'm only guessing that the vet list wasn't updated on the 20th.

I bet he'll hate CD too.

I laughed..



It is a little amusing that the decision seemed to be based on his 1.5 mile jog this morning...