http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-raci...ight-nov-1-tab


Hmm, well according to Mike Welsch, Girolamo's was the fastest work, but he was strongly urged near the end. It sounded like he was most impressed with Regal Ransom and Midshipman...........I would send Girolamo to the Cigar Mile as it doesn't appear he's handling the track all that well; he's usually a fantastic work horse.

Spent time with Migliore after he was finished today... Was thrilled with how Regal Ransom went and describes Gayego, who he has to restrain, as the proverbally "happy horse" right now who always wants to do more.

Thanks for the bonus weekend comments Steve.

Just found out that I got some free tix for the Saturday Breeder's Cup.

Hope to stop by and say hi.

Awesome... Word is tickets will be very WIDELY available for anyone thinking about attending. Look forward to seeing you... Big group of DTers and ATR listeners Cup bound this year!

I'll be back and forth from the track and paddock Saturday as it looks like I'll be part of SiriusXM's 'Down the Stretch' coverage with Bill Finley, Dave Johnson and Chris McCarron from 10am-7pm EST.

I think Gayego might be a good play in the Sprint - thanks for the info! Do you know who rode Girolamo in his workout? I wonder how important workouts are. Last year, Music Note wasn't working that well coming into the BC and she ran a very fine race in the Distaff............Do we read too much into workouts?

TODAY'S CUP WORKS


SANTA ANITA

TURF - 4f
California Flag :48.00 H 1
Cowboy Cal :48.00 H 1
Dad's Crazy :48.60 H 3

TURF - 5f
Becky's Kitten 1:00.00 H 3
Cannonball :59.40 H 1

MAIN - 4f
Allicansayis Wow :47.20 H 4
Einstein (BRZ) :47.80 H 6
Eldaafer :48.00 H 7
Join in the Dance :47.00 H 3
Lethal Heat :46.60 H 1
Negligee :46.80 H 2

MAIN - 5f
Always a Princess :58.40 H 1
Blind Luck 1:01.20 H 37
Crown of Thorns :59.80 H 16
Gayego 1:00.80 H 30
Girolamo :59.20 H 7
Noble's Promise :59.20 H 7
On Fire 1:00.60 H 25
Pulsion 1:02.60 H 53
Pyro 1:03.40 H 57
Regal Ransom :59.20 H 7

MAIN - 6f
Midshipman 1:13.00 H 3



HOLLYWOOD
Tenga Cat :48.80 B 20
Whatsthescript (IRE) 1:11.80 H 1



CHURCHILL
Pure Clan :37.60 B 6

Congrats. That sounds like a coup. Did anyone notice Summer Bird worked BETWEEN RACES last week?

From what I've heard it sounds like the entire world is on this horse. Take whatever odds you expected and divide by four.

King:
Are you basing this prediction off of Zenyatta's figures, and if so which ones are you using? Or are you more of a visual/trip based handicapper and see Zenyatta as the kind of horse that hasnt ever been full out and has plenty left in the tank each time?

I dont get the strong conviction that this horse will win the Classic. I dont see how any of her other efforts scream out that she is a horse that will beat this talented group in an "easy" sort of effort. I'm not a huge fan of hers nor am I a basher, but to me, she looks like an extremey good horse who has been facing very mediocre to weak competition, and never running a bad race which is very unusual in this game.

But in my opinion, this field is enormously talented. You have some good horses (Zenyatta, Richards Kid, Colonel John) who excel on this surface, and you have some really good horses (Summer Bird and Quality Road) who are in very good form and whose abilities may just cancel out the poly advantage. Then you have talented horses that seemingly never run bad races and can run over any surface (Einstein and Gio Ponti). Finally you have the euro wildcard like Rip Van Winkle, who probably will be overbet because of last year's result, but still figures dangerous. Toss in two closers who on their best days can make things very interesting if their is a pace collapse (Mine that Bird and Awesome Gem).

If Zenyatta wins, it will be the 2nd best story of the year behind Rachel's entire campaign, but it will also be a much better field than any of the ones Rachel beat by a mile.

I wont be as bold to say she cant win, but I dont really see it and her odds will make her an automatic throwout for me anyways.

Exactly what are you seeing about her to make this kind of prediction?

The day I use figures to tell me more than what my eyes see is the day I quit this game. From a figure standpoint, she doesn't come close. From what I've seen on the track, she looks the most likely to win. There are questions about so many of the others, who will take to the track, who will best be helped by the pace, etc, but there are none about her. I don't think Richard's Kid or Colonel John are close to her in ability. Nobody knows if Rip will like the surface. Ice entering Summer Bird in the Turf tells me that he doesn't like what he's seeing on the surface. I've never thought Quality Road wanted to run this far. Mine That Bird didn't look like he liked it when he ran on it and Awesome Gem just doesn't like to win races period. Gio Ponti and Einstein are the two horses to worry about in my opinion (of course Rip if he takes the track) and I'm just not convinced that they are better than her. I think the only thing that can keep this from being a romp would be Rip taking the track.

A romp? Wow.

The visually impressive stuff about her is mostly fluff to me as I won't believe for a second that she hasn't worked hard in some of her past victories. In fact, she's worked hard to beat terrible horses.

The fascinating things about Zenyatta is that she's seemingly immune to just having a bad day or an incredibly negative pace scenario. That being said, I think the task she's about to undertake is being woefully under-estimated. Facing males in a bulky field going a distance that's 1/8th farther than she's ever gone are all potential road-blocks. Are they significant? It's impossible to tell but to think that because she's had her ears pricked running by mediocrities is a quality that makes her the likeliest winner in a potential romp, to me will be proven an incorrect opinion.

NT

You'll notice that I never once have mentioned how hard she does or doesn't have to work in her races. I think that's a very overblown thing too. That's why I have always been against bringing horses back in "easy" races off of layoffs, as if it's a huge difference to run the 1:36 to beat grade three miles and the 1:35 that the grade one runnners will run. I also do realize that this will be by far her toughest assignment to date. By far. The fact that it's facing males means nothing to me though. Neither does the field size. The added distance is a question mark, although not a big one to me. The talent of the competition is all I'm concerned about. It has nothing to do with the horses she's faced in the past. It has nothing to do with her ears being pricked. It has everything to do with whenever the question is asked, there is always a positive answer and until I see otherwise, I have to believe it will be positive again and I think her best will prove to be too much for any of these (with the possible exception of Rip Van Winkle) to handle. If I'm wrong, it won't be a newsflash to anyone.

I think she has faced nothing but bad field after bad field. I just dont know how you can envision any kind of romp based off any race shes ever run. She would have to: 1) Improve significantly 2) Have the pace go very fast up front 3) Have all of the other closers not fire for this to be a romp.

Again, not saying she isnt at the very least a contender, and hardly the least likely winner, but I am just very surprised by your strong conviction and the words potential romp being used.

I think this is one of the most interesting Classics in a long time. I also dont see any sort of scenario that would make the pace favorable to the deep closers like Zenyatta. I think its won by a front runner or somebody with very good tactical speed like Einstein.

I can see why the King has the "romp" but it is very interesting, and I think that even the people that don't think she can win are a little afraid. I don't think she will win, but I do think she will love the distance, my questions is will Smith have the guts to take her inside. Every single race he has done that wide loping move, the pace should be solid with Quality Road and Regal Ransom I think Rip and Einstein will pressing possibly Girolamo. If the pace gets quick Zenyatta could be right there on the turn, and if Smith goes inside I could see here winning. Much to my wallets dismay.

yea I wouldnt trust that guy...he cant win in the breeders cup:rolleyes:

You need to stop, your betting Awesome Gem....

How does facing bad fields make a good horse any less of a good horse? I don't understand that logic. I don't think she has to improve significantly at all, I don't think she is at the mercy of the pace at all, and I don't think any of the other closers are better closers than her.

Mike Smith has been aces (12 winners) in the BC, tied with Pat Day for 2nd most I think, behind Jerry Bailey who has 15. But he's had some amazing help underneath him, a few of them like Skip Away, walkovers. Still, hes brought his best riding to the biggest day. Most of these were favorites or 2nd choice in the wagering....

Ajina (LC, 1997) 4/1
Azeri (LC, 2002) 9/5
Cherokee Run (S, 1994) 5/2
Inside Information (LC, 1995) 4/5
Lure (M, 1992) 5/1
Lure (M, 1993) 6/5
Skip Away (C, 1997) 9/5
Stardom Bound (JF, 2008) 3/2
Tikkanen (T, 1994) 16/1
Unbridled's Song (J, 1995) 5/1
Vindication (J, 2002) 4/1
Zenyatta (LC, 2008) 1/2

And you need to stop with the cliches and the imitations of public handicappers.

How can the horse possibly be an outsider when it has run clearly the best race of anyone in the field?

On top of having clearly the best race ... it might be as high as 5th or 6th choice in the betting.

If you argued that the horse was an underlay for underneath in exotic spots .. than I would certainly agree because of her running style and the factors you mention.

These types often either win easily as non-favorites ... or bomb. They have an absolutely spectacular ROI on the win end ... but they also completely bomb quite a bit.

She is amzaingly consistent and talented but it just seems logical to me that if she is all out to beat horses like Life is Sweet and Briecat, she may have a tough time getting up against very accomplished horses like this field has, and I am pretty confident she needs pace help. She may not need it against Briecat but she'll need it here. I just dont see this materializng. We'll see....done talking about this until we see the official entries because I am skeptical we even we'll get the chance to find out.

I wasn't saying that Connie and Michael is an outsider. I was saying that if you were asking a horse who's an outsider to step up and run big in a race like this off of one MSW race then the value would probably be there. Basically I was saying that there will be no value on Connie and Michael anywhere, at least to me, because the likelihood of her duplicating that effort is low. I think she's more likely to bomb.

NT

Guess it kinda depends on if you feel she was all out to beat those horses. I don't think she was. And even if she was a couple of starts back, she sure didn't look like it in her last.

Her last, I agree, from a visual standpoint, was an impressive paid public workout. It may have been the best race I have seen from her. I just take into account competition as a major factor and even you agree, this is by far her toughest test (thats a huge understatement).

And I do like Awesome Gem, but the way this race is shaping up, I dont think he's the kind of horse who can win without significant help up front. I doubt I will even use him.

Yeah, the value would be there if you mean big odds ... but so would a less than sensational race ... and such a horse would have no shot at big odds.


She is more likely than not to bomb .... but she is also more likely to win than her projected closing odds will indicate.

I have her as a possible big overlay to win and a possible huge underlay to finish underneath in exotics.

The opposite of how a horse like a Perfect Drift or Dynever was often a big underlay to win and an overlay to finish underneath.

Anyone that uses her in the 3rd or 4th slot in exotics is a fool. Anyone that denies her extreme once-a-year like debut talent is also being extremely foolish.

How many horses have won the BCJ or BCJF off just a debut race?

I believe none. Action This Day and Indian Blessing both had only two starts and that's the fewest any winners have had.

NT

I think UBS and Brocco both had two starts as well.

Interestingly and somewhat obviously enough, the last three Juv Fillies winners at SA won the Oak Leaf.

I have basically no opinion on this year's Juv Fillies as it is by far the race on Friday I'm looking forward to the least. Except that I think Connie and Michael won't win.

NT

I thought Blind Luck's last two races were strong...

One of Indian Blessings was a Grade 1.

How many have ever been entered?

Very, very, very few ... and none of them even had so much as a slim chance.

You can find a lot of 4th and 5th choices who simply have no chance. Very rarely do you find a 4th or 5th choice who only needs to run back to her last race to win.

Few trainers suck as much as Ken McPeak does with debuting sprinters. Few trainers have ever been as strong as Ken McPeak is with 2nd time starters going long.

Right.

http://www.drf.com/news/article/108617.html

King Glorious, given the work, would you send Girolamo to the Cigar Mile? It doesn't sound like he's that happy with the surface.....he usually works much better than this. Is it possible perhaps Godolphin wanted to put a stiff work into him because he's inexperienced?

What is with your fixation with him?

NT

I assume you mean Girolamao and not King Glorious? The colt is one of my favorite horses and he's got a lot of questions surrounding him. I respect the opinions of posters on the board and so I ask ?. I hope that's not a problem? I have a few other favorite horses, but I don't need to ask ? about them because they are fairly solid.

It was a question for debate, given the horse discussed.

Very few that I can remember have been entered, usually because they wouldn't draw in anyways because the gate would fill with horses who had graded stakes points. Now so few 2yo's have more than 3-4 starts before the BC it certainly allows a maiden winner to not only get in but have a reasonable shot.

As for her odds, I think she might be higher than 4th or 5th choice. Always a Princess, Beautician, Bickersons, Blind Luck, Devil May Care, Negligee, and She Be Wild will probably be lower odds than her (whether warranted or not.) I think if you like her, you will get 15-1 or 20-1. My guesses...
Blind Luck 7/2
Negligee 9/2
She Be Wild 6/1
Devil May Care 10/1
Always a Princess 12/1
Beautician 15/1
Bickersons 15/1
Connie and Michael 15/1
Biofuel 25/1
Zilva 30/1
Ms Vanenzza 30/1
Champagne D'Oro 100/1

You really think Beautician will be that high with the obvious trouble in last race and prior efforts?

Also, in reference to your McPeek stretchout comments, it looks like he's trying to enter my friend's horse off just a debut maiden win in the BCJ (or BCJT) since he scratched out of the Iroquois today.

While I'll root for him he doesn't have much of a chance and quite frankly I don't know if he'll even draw in, as he's last on the AE's list.

ap indy. betsy is a fan of his and follows his extended family.