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-   -   2019 Derby Trail: Bourbon War brings Belmont field to 10 (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=65685)

Dahoss 05-13-2019 02:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cakes44 (Post 1126438)
I know if I was one of those trainers with a TBA next to my name, I'd be giving him a call. I'm not sure there's a better jock in the country.

Than Prat? He got outridden most of the winter by Rosario.

herkhorse 05-14-2019 05:45 AM

What happened to Sueno? Thought he was in.

RolloTomasi 05-14-2019 08:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by herkhorse (Post 1126459)
What happened to Sueno? Thought he was in.

Hasn't worked in over a month (since the Lexington).

Alabama Stakes 05-15-2019 10:33 AM

Everfast joins Preakness mix

richard burch 05-15-2019 10:32 PM

Derby Time ?
 
The winning time is listed as 2:03.02.

Is that MS time or CH time?



http://www.equibase.com/premium/char...9&cy=USA&rn=12

Merlinsky 05-15-2019 10:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes (Post 1126491)
Everfast joins Preakness mix

Well great. A Take Charge Indy colt from Calumet and Dale Romans? It'd be nice if he did well for all their sakes. I look forward to anything and everything Dale decides to utter between now and race day. It's rather a shame he's such a good trainer. He could be doing stand-up or at the very least tv commentary. Good luck, Dale!

moses 05-15-2019 11:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by richard burch (Post 1126535)
The winning time is listed as 2:03.02.

Is that MS time or CH time?



http://www.equibase.com/premium/char...9&cy=USA&rn=12

It’s listed as 2:03.93 - but anyway, it’s Maximum Security's time.

Kasept 05-16-2019 05:30 AM

5/18 (PIM): PREAKNESS STAKES

1. War of Will (Casse/Gaffalione) 4-1
2. Bourbon War (Hennig/I. Ortiz) 12-1
3. Warrior's Charge (Cox/Castellano) 12-1
4. Improbable (Baffert/Smith) 5-2
5. Owendale (Cox/Geroux) 10-1
6. Market King (Lukas/Court) 30-1
7. Alwaysmining (Rubley/Centeno) 8-1
8. Signalman (McPeek/B. Hernandez) 30-1
9. Bodexpress (A. Delgado/J. Velazquez) 20-1
10. Everfast (Romans/Rosario) 50-1
11. Laughing Fox (Asmussen/Santana) 20-1
12. Anothertwistafate (Wright/J. Ortiz) 6-1
13. Win Win Win (Trombetta/Pimental) 15-1

moses 05-17-2019 09:32 AM

It’s been brutally quiet here the past two days.

Anyone have any thoughts on Warrior’s Charge? I’m not crazy about the pedigree with Munnings as the sire...but his last race was a really nice race. I’ve got to think he’s at least got a chance to hit the board.

ninetoone 05-17-2019 09:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by moses (Post 1126562)
It’s been brutally quiet here the past two days.

Anyone have any thoughts on Warrior’s Charge? I’m not crazy about the pedigree with Munnings as the sire...but his last race was a really nice race. I’ve got to think he’s at least got a chance to hit the board.

Reminds me of Bernardini - perhaps more about Castellano and the couple of wins coming in than the running style - Bernardini had already showed signs of being able to come off the pace.

I would leave him off at your own risk!

The obvious questions are the pace scenario (who gets the lead tomorrow) and whether or not he can get the extra furlong....

casp0555 05-17-2019 10:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by moses (Post 1126562)
It’s been brutally quiet here the past two days.

Anyone have any thoughts on Warrior’s Charge? I’m not crazy about the pedigree with Munnings as the sire...but his last race was a really nice race. I’ve got to think he’s at least got a chance to hit the board.

if he could get the lead ala Oxbow he may be a player but I don't see a 48+ half in this race....Im thinking thats going to be Market King's plan. Im hoping that Anothertwist comes out of the gate gunning for position along with a few others and they keep it up on the backstretch. I'll probably lose but my primary players will be WOW, Bourbon War:{>:, and Owendale, Im off Improbable so again, I will probably lose.

Alabama Stakes 05-17-2019 10:35 AM

I think that Jose Ortiz is gonna send Anothertwistafate no matter what they tell him.

casp0555 05-17-2019 10:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes (Post 1126571)
I think that Jose Ortiz is gonna send Anothertwistafate no matter what they tell him.

Yep...I agree

moses 05-17-2019 10:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by casp0555 (Post 1126567)
if he could get the lead ala Oxbow he may be a player but I don't see a 48+ half in this race....Im thinking thats going to be Market King's plan. Im hoping that Anothertwist comes out of the gate gunning for position along with a few others and they keep it up on the backstretch. I'll probably lose but my primary players will be WOW, Bourbon War:{>:, and Owendale, Im off Improbable so again, I will probably lose.

I don’t blame you. I’m mixed between tossing WOW or Improbable. Partly value based but also because I like quite a few of the new horses. I feel like WOW will get overbet on the assumption that he would have finished well if not for the foul - but I’m not so sure. Improbable is the most consistent of these horses so it’s hard for me to toss him...but he’s also running his 3rd race in 5 weeks and I wonder how much the Arkansas and Kentucky derby’s took out of him. Baffert himself does not seem overly confident in him.

I’m 100% with you on Bourbon War and Owendale. I absolutely love Owendale in this race and if he doesn’t hit the board then I won’t be cashing a ticket. All my horizontals are going to single him.

Alabama Stakes 05-17-2019 10:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ninetoone (Post 1126563)
Reminds me of Bernardini - perhaps more about Castellano and the couple of wins coming in than the running style - Bernardini had already showed signs of being able to come off the pace.

I would leave him off at your own risk!

The obvious questions are the pace scenario (who gets the lead tomorrow) and whether or not he can get the extra furlong....

Bernardini winning the Preakness was the weirdest experience in that we watched the race at Suffolk Downs downstairs. They showed the track feed. The pan shot that you see for every race is on all the TVs. It’s so loud you can’t hear a thing. We watch the race, bet the winner, and are ecstatic. We give my brother the tickets and roll out of there to beat the traffic since the track was jammed. Never even knew Barbaro broke down. RIP Barbaro

knickslions2 05-17-2019 10:58 AM

My two top ones for this race that I will have on tickets are Alwaysmining and Bourbon War. I wont have WOW on any tickets.

moses 05-17-2019 11:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes (Post 1126575)
Bernardini winning the Preakness was the weirdest experience in that we watched the race at Suffolk Downs downstairs. They showed the track feed. The pan shot that you see for every race is on all the TVs. It’s so loud you can’t hear a thing. We watch the race, bet the winner, and are ecstatic. We give my brother the tickets and roll out of there to beat the traffic since the track was jammed. Never even knew Barbaro broke down. RIP Barbaro

I had Bernardini that day too. For the win and in the exacta. I was 20 years old and I think that was the biggest ticket I had ever cashed at the time. I wish I had a bigger bankroll then - I think I only cashed for $200-something total on the race.

ninetoone 05-17-2019 11:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by moses (Post 1126581)
I had Bernardini that day too. For the win and in the exacta. I was 20 years old and I think that was the biggest ticket I had ever cashed at the time. I wish I had a bigger bankroll then - I think I only cashed for $200-something total on the race.

I remember having a hundred bucks on Bernardini to win, which was bittersweet, because I was a Barbaro fan and had bet him in the Derby. I know it looks like a redboard, but true. That was the year that the #8 won all three legs of the TC (and I didn't have Jazil in the Belmont).

moses 05-19-2019 10:05 AM

Anyone have thoughts on Owendale’s trip? I’m hearing and seeing a lot of people that think he lost too much ground going wide — but I didn’t think his trip was that bad. Maybe swung wide a little early but he’s got a running style where you want to get him clear.

Alabama Stakes 05-19-2019 10:24 AM

Plenty of peeps were ill that he missed second by an inch.....

moses 05-19-2019 10:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes (Post 1126790)
Plenty of peeps were ill that he missed second by an inch.....

Oh, I’m sure - and maybe it cost him 2nd but I couldn’t fault the ride too much. I had Owendale keyed in my trifecta so him finishing 2nd and 3rd didn’t matter to me. Problem was that I didn’t see Everfast as having a legit shot to finish anywhere near the money and he wasn’t on a single one of my tickets. Maybe that’s just confirmation for something I already knew - Robby Albarado is not a very good jockey and Rosario is.

Dahoss 05-19-2019 02:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by moses (Post 1126789)
Anyone have thoughts on Owendale’s trip? I’m hearing and seeing a lot of people that think he lost too much ground going wide — but I didn’t think his trip was that bad. Maybe swung wide a little early but he’s got a running style where you want to get him clear.

I wonder what would have happened had he been taken back closer to where Everfast was. He also got beaten to the inside by Signalman, but I feel like if Geroux was a little more aggressive he could have gotten to that spot. All in all, not a bad trip, but a little nuance and he’s 2nd.

casp0555 05-19-2019 03:18 PM

https://twitter.com/i/status/1129885812093534208

talk about a happy winner :tro: and look who is in the background, Steve and Tina!

ninetoone 05-19-2019 03:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by casp0555 (Post 1126797)
https://twitter.com/i/status/1129885812093534208

talk about a happy winner :tro: and look who is in the background, Steve and Tina!


Steve, the definition of "unfazed" in the video....hahahaha!

Kasept 05-20-2019 07:23 AM

6/8 (BEL): BELMONT STAKES

War of Will (Casse)
Sir Winston (Casse)
Intrepid Heart (Pletcher)
Spinoff (Pletcher)
Master Fencer (Tsunoda)
Tacitus (Mott)
Everfast (Romans)
Owendale (Cox)
Tax (Gargan)
Global Campaign (Hough) ~ Dwyer; OH Derby

moses 05-20-2019 09:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept (Post 1126821)
6/8 (BEL): BELMONT STAKES

War of Will (Casse)
Sir Winston (Casse)
Intrepid Heart (Pletcher)
Spinoff (Pletcher)
Master Fencer (Tsunoda)
Tacitus (Mott)
Everfast (Romans)
Owendale (Cox)
Game Winner (Baffert)
Tax (Gargan)
Global Campaign (Hough) ~ Dwyer; OH Derby

With how things are going, I’m going to have to include Spinoff in my bets because I have no clue why he’s in the race.

cal828 05-20-2019 04:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by moses (Post 1126824)
With how things are going, I’m going to have to include Spinoff in my bets because I have no clue why he’s in the race.

One of the more colorful quotes I've heard about the Belmont is: "that horse couldn't get the distance on the back of a flatbed truck." I guess Pletcher thinks this one could get the distance without the services of the truck?

ElPrado 05-20-2019 05:11 PM

A horse trailer might help.

cakes44 05-20-2019 05:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cal828 (Post 1126844)
One of the more colorful quotes I've heard about the Belmont is: "that horse couldn't get the distance on the back of a flatbed truck." I guess Pletcher thinks this one could get the distance without the services of the truck?

Tough to toss Pletcher in the Belmont.

cal828 05-20-2019 06:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cakes44 (Post 1126847)
Tough to toss Pletcher in the Belmont.

I didn't say toss him, although it might sound like that. I was just offering a possible explanation for why Pletcher is entering him which is he obviously thinks he can get the distance.

richard burch 05-20-2019 09:44 PM

6/8 (BEL): BELMONT STAKES

War of Will (Casse)
Sir Winston (Casse)
Intrepid Heart (Pletcher)
Spinoff (Pletcher)
Master Fencer (Tsunoda)
Tacitus (Mott)
Everfast (Romans)
Owendale (Cox)
Game Winner (Baffert)......by (CANDY RIDE (ARG) - INDYAN GIVING, BY A.P. INDY )...AP Indy, who won the Peter Pan and the Belmont in 1992.
Tax (Gargan)
Global Campaign (Hough) ~ Dwyer; OH Derby....( CURLIN - GLOBE TROT, BY A.P. INDY )....and its a Filly in the Belmont! but Curlin was close.



Pedigree plays.

moses 05-21-2019 08:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cal828 (Post 1126844)
One of the more colorful quotes I've heard about the Belmont is: "that horse couldn't get the distance on the back of a flatbed truck." I guess Pletcher thinks this one could get the distance without the services of the truck?

Quote:

Originally Posted by cakes44 (Post 1126847)
Tough to toss Pletcher in the Belmont.

Quote:

Originally Posted by cal828 (Post 1126849)
I didn't say toss him, although it might sound like that. I was just offering a possible explanation for why Pletcher is entering him which is he obviously thinks he can get the distance.

I actually like Spinoff’s pedigree a bit for the Belmont...he just hasn’t run like he wants the distance.

RolloTomasi 05-21-2019 06:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by richard burch (Post 1126853)
6/8 (BEL): BELMONT STAKES
Game Winner (Baffert)......by (CANDY RIDE (ARG) - INDYAN GIVING, BY A.P. INDY )...AP Indy, who won the Peter Pan and the Belmont in 1992.
Tax (Gargan)
Global Campaign (Hough) ~ Dwyer; OH Derby....( CURLIN - GLOBE TROT, BY A.P. INDY )....and its a Filly in the Belmont! but Curlin was close.



Pedigree plays.

Pretty bold ignoring 2 sons of Tapit when playing pedigrees. One of those is Intrepid Heart, who is also a half to Belmont runner-up Commissioner and his broodmare sire is Belmont winner Touch Gold.

richard burch 05-21-2019 10:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi (Post 1126889)
Pretty bold ignoring 2 sons of Tapit when playing pedigrees. One of those is Intrepid Heart, who is also a half to Belmont runner-up Commissioner and his broodmare sire is Belmont winner Touch Gold.


Not ignoring them, there are others too who might have a pedigree angle. Was just looking for something off.

Rupert Pupkin 05-24-2019 02:41 PM

In case anyone missed it, Baffert said Game Winner will skip the Belmont.

Kasept 05-31-2019 05:08 PM

Bourbon War added to Belmont field..

Alabama Stakes 05-31-2019 05:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept (Post 1127230)
Bourbon War added to Belmont field..

Could be the bet of the year kind of like Creator

Hickory Hill Hoff 05-31-2019 09:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes (Post 1127231)
Could be the bet of the year kind of like Creator

not off that Preakness effort! :rolleyes:

ninetoone 06-01-2019 07:05 AM

BW starting to remind me of Dollar Bill....

Hickory Hill Hoff 06-01-2019 07:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ninetoone (Post 1127238)
BW starting to remind me of Dollar Bill....

exactly! :tro:


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