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-   -   2012 Triple Crown Trail: 11 try to deny I'll Have Another (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=45691)

Mike 04-17-2012 04:13 PM
What's the purse distribution for the Jerome? 1st place, anyways.

Gate Dancer 04-17-2012 04:18 PM
THE JEROME
$200,000
(Grade II)
(Up to $34,000 NYSBFOA)
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS No nomination fee. $2,000 to pass the entry box. A supplemental nomination fee of $2,000 in addition to the entry fee may be made at any time prior to the closing of entries. All starters will receive a $1,500 rebate. The purse to be divided 60% to the winner, 20% to second, 10% to third, 5% to fourth, 3% to fifth and 2% divided equally among the remaining finishers.

Looks like:

1st= $120,000
2nd= $40,000
3rd= $20,000
4th= $5,000

tywizard 04-18-2012 08:39 AM
Any word on some of the entries for the undercard? I saw where shack was pointing toward the derby undercard. Any others that we know of?

cal828 04-18-2012 09:39 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by tjfla (Post 853114)
Ya its the same every year

Hansen will take money since he won the Juvy,he is white and they will do 5 stories on Dr.Crazy. TCI will take the Borel money,Mark Valeski will take the Rosie cash ,Bodemeister cause of Bob and his son plus heart attack and then there is the Went The Day Well who will take cash cause of the AK angle.

Only 1 question? Who will be this year's Wise Guy Horse???
Daddy Nose Best?

justindew 04-18-2012 10:52 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by cal828 (Post 853514)
Daddy Nose Best?
Agreed, unfortunately. I like him a lot.

Travis Stone 04-18-2012 11:40 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by cal828 (Post 853514)
Daddy Nose Best?
Quote:
Originally Posted by justindew (Post 853532)
Agreed, unfortunately. I like him a lot.
His Sunland Derby will get discounted because of the insane speed duel but it was a fast race on figures and he finished-up strong. The big negative at this point is how the runner-up didn't exactly flatter in the Arkansas Derby.

MaTH716 04-18-2012 11:49 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Travis Stone (Post 853541)
His Sunland Derby will get discounted because it's the Sunland Derby.
FTFY

tjfla 04-18-2012 12:47 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by cal828 (Post 853514)
Daddy Nose Best?
Ya same here,which sucks cause was hoping he would be the BOMB(25/1 or so) on the exotics

tjfla 04-18-2012 12:53 PM
Could get interesting with Sat Races

If Stirred Up wins the Jerome he is at 216,000 right behind Reveron

If Castaway wins the Lexington he is IN and if he comes in 2nd he is at 202,000 right behind Reveron,Morgan's Guerilla wins he is tied with Reveron at 220,000 but loses the Tie Breaker and News Pending wins he is at 200,000 which is behind Reveron

Doubtful that we get any defections beside Rousing Sermon which would make Reveron #20(unless Castaway wins,which would make El Padrino #20),if Secret Circle and Liaison both go

I wonder what Baffert would do if Stirred Up and Castaway are #21 and #22 with Secret Circle and Liaison only possible!!!!

justindew 04-18-2012 01:40 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by tjfla (Post 853574)
Ya same here,which sucks cause was hoping he would be the BOMB(25/1 or so) on the exotics
I feel like the trend in recent years has been for the odds climbing on the favorites, and dropping on everyone else. That's why I'm seeing a post time favorite in the 7-1 range, with horses like Daddy Nose Best, El Padrino, and Mark Valeski landing in the 20-1 to 25-1 range. Although I have a bad feeling we'll see something in the teens for Daddy Nose Best.

tjfla 04-18-2012 04:10 PM
No clue how reliable this source is but looks like Rousing Sermon is IN

http://voices.idahostatesman.com/201...kentucky_derby

Travis Stone 04-18-2012 04:36 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by justindew (Post 853607)
Although I have a bad feeling we'll see something in the teens for Daddy Nose Best.
The teens in this year's Derby could possibly be the 10th pick though.

cal828 04-18-2012 05:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by justindew (Post 853607)
I feel like the trend in recent years has been for the odds climbing on the favorites, and dropping on everyone else. That's why I'm seeing a post time favorite in the 7-1 range, with horses like Daddy Nose Best, El Padrino, and Mark Valeski landing in the 20-1 to 25-1 range. Although I have a bad feeling we'll see something in the teens for Daddy Nose Best.
Can't really see the post time favorite being as high as 7-1 in a year in which there has really been only one blow out win. I don't think the first time or occasional bettors and probably a good segment of seasoned handicappers will be able to get past the 9 and half length win and the 108 beyer.

tjfla 04-19-2012 12:06 PM
According to DRF.com

Secret Circle is out of the Derby-gonna get tests tho for something??

He prolly has that same liver disease as Mo last year,you know the one which symptoms include inability to get 1 1/4:D

Danzig 04-19-2012 12:21 PM
tough morning for the baffert barn. wonder what precautionary tests they're doing on secret circle? supposedly no surgery needed.... that coupled with the princess arabella retirement news-an odd morning.

Kasept 04-19-2012 12:35 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by tjfla (Post 853852)
According to DRF.com

Secret Circle is out of the Derby-gonna get tests tho for something??

He prolly has that same liver disease as Mo last year,you know the one which symptoms include inability to get 1 1/4:D
With all due respect, that's an ill-advised editorialization. (And I'm being kind). Not running Secret Circle in the Derby is a praise-worthy decision, not one to be derided.

tjfla 04-19-2012 12:40 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kasept (Post 853865)
With all due respect, that's an ill-advised editorialization. (And I'm being kind). Not running Secret Circle in the Derby is a praise-worthy decision, not one to be derided.
No I totally agree with u,I was just making a joke of the "tests" part is all.

I wish they would just say he can't get the distance so we are gonna rest him for the summer sprints is all. Instead we get he is out of the derby and we are gonna run tests??

asudevil 04-19-2012 12:44 PM
Bone Chip....

tjfla 04-19-2012 12:48 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by tjfla (Post 853852)
According to DRF.com

Secret Circle is out of the Derby-gonna get tests tho for something??

He prolly has that same liver disease as Mo last year,you know the one which symptoms include inability to get 1 1/4:D
My Apologizes!! He is Out for 3-4 months with a legit injury

Indian Charlie 04-19-2012 01:32 PM
Yeah, and Mo was not legitimately compromised.

pmayjr 04-19-2012 01:35 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Travis Stone (Post 853541)
His Sunland Derby will get discounted because of the insane speed duel but it was a fast race on figures and he finished-up strong. The big negative at this point is how the runner-up didn't exactly flatter in the Arkansas Derby.
Agreed. I had high hopes for Isn't he Clever last weekend, because I thought he ran a monster race at Sunland. If he somehow makes the Derby i'll stick with him on deep exotic tickets.

GenuineRisk 04-19-2012 01:56 PM
Secret Circle out
 
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-raci...e-out-of-derby

NTamm1215 04-21-2012 09:18 AM
Marty McGee tweets that Reveron exited his workout with a hairline fracture and is out of the Derby. If Castaway gets nothing today, this puts Isn't He Clever in the mix.

AND...Welsch says Parboo is currently planning to run Trinniberg in the Derby.

Kasept 04-21-2012 09:23 AM
Welsch reports Parboo will run Trinniberg..

Travis Stone 04-21-2012 09:31 AM
Significant news. The entire look/feel/shape of the race just completely changed.

Travis Stone 04-21-2012 09:35 AM
The tweet is below. The bold part I found a bit funny...

Quote:
Shivananda Parboo reports he currently plans to run his Trinniberg in the Kentucky Derby and says he may not even be on the lead.

Dahoss 04-21-2012 09:44 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kasept (Post 853003)
TRINNIBERG LIKELY TO BYPASS DERBY; DERBY TRIAL NEW TARGET

MIAMI GARDENS, Fla. (April 15, 2012) – With the final round of major prep races for the Kentucky Derby completed on Saturday, the Calder-based multiple graded stakes winner Trinniberg sits in 17th place in the latest graded-stakes earnings list. But even with his spot in the Derby starting gate seemingly assured, owner Shivananda Parbhoo has indicated that his colt is likely to pass the race.

“Right now I’m 85 percent not going to the Derby,” Parbhoo said on Sunday morning. “But I could reach 100 percent pretty soon. The way the horse is feeling right now, he’s doing so well, I don’t want to run him over his head. He’s a nice three-year-old with so many options the rest of the year. I don’t want to ruin him.”

While those mid-to-late season options could include such races as the Grade 2 Woody Stephens at Belmont Park on June 9 and the Grade 1 King’s Bishop at Saratoga August 25, the next option for the recent Grade 3 Bay Shore winner could be the $200,000 Grade 3 Derby Trial at Churchill Downs, run at the distance of one mile on April 28.

“We’ll work him some time between the 18th and the 20th, and then we’ll look at the Derby Trial as the next logical spot,” Parbhoo said. “I think the one-mile distance of that race is perfect for him. And it’s a way to stretch him out a bit, without asking too much of him.”

Following a possible start in the Derby Trial, Parbhoo hinted that Trinniberg could still make a Triple Crown appearance in Baltimore, contesting the Grade 1 Preakness Stakes on May 19. But even that option appears to be fading somewhat from the owner’s mind.

“The Preakness could still be a goal, but a lot of that would depend on how he ran in the Derby Trial,” Parbhoo said. “If we decide to run (in the Derby Trial) and he was to win that race really easy, then we might look at the Preakness. But right now, my thinking is that I’d really like to keep him at seven furlongs to one mile.

“Believe me, I want to go to the Derby; the day we bought our first horse, our dream was the Derby,” Parbhoo continued. “But it’s not about me, it’s about the horse. I won’t ruin a really nice horse just to say I ran a horse in the Kentucky Derby.”
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kasept (Post 854345)
Welsch reports Parboo will run Trinniberg..
What a difference a few days makes. I understand getting Derby fever and being in the race will be huge for these connections.

But when you realize you are most likely hindering the horses future growth by running in an impossible spot, is it really worth it? Is it that exciting watching your horse lead the race for a half mile and then finish 20th beaten a pole?

Calzone Lord 04-21-2012 09:57 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by NTamm1215 (Post 854343)
If Castaway gets nothing today, this puts Isn't He Clever in the mix.
Not to a Lava Man like extent ... but Isn't He Clever's trainer is based at Sunland and Isn't He Clever's form is many, many lengths better at Sunland than anywhere else.

You can't trust him outside of Sunland until he runs just one decent race. He's run three pretty excellent races there and zero decent races everywhere else. They should stay put in New Mexico for now.

Mike 04-21-2012 10:21 AM
Castaway only has to finish 2nd now to get in.

RockHardTen1985 04-21-2012 11:31 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mike (Post 854357)
Castaway only has to finish 2nd now to get in.
Im Baffert biggest fan, Im 4 deep on some mults and Castaway is not on anything. I doubt he runs well today.

hoovesupsideyourhead 04-21-2012 12:17 PM
http://www.drf.com/news/2012-kentuck...njured-and-out

hes going for the derby..looks like bode will have some company.

justindew 04-21-2012 12:19 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by justindew (Post 851502)
Trinniberg is listed as 15% for the Derby, 85% for the Preakness. Which of course means 100% for the Derby and 75% for the Preakness as well.
Too easy.

tjfla 04-21-2012 12:24 PM
#21 Isn't He Clever

However if

Stirred Up Wins the Jerome he is #21

Castaway Wins the Lexington,El Padrino is #21/2nd means he is #21

Morgan's Guerilla Wins the Lexington he is #21

News Pending Wins the Lexington he is #21

Also Hansen and Bodemeister just moved down on alot of lists

justindew 04-21-2012 12:26 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by tjfla (Post 854387)
#21 Isn't He Clever

However if

Stirred Up Wins the Jerome he is #21

Castaway Wins the Lexington,El Padrino is #21/2nd means he is #21

Morgan's Guerilla Wins the Lexington he is #21

News Pending Wins the Lexington he is #21

Also Hansen and Bodemeister just moved down on alot of lists
What if Stirred Up and Castaway both win?

NTamm1215 04-21-2012 12:32 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by justindew (Post 854388)
What if Stirred Up and Castaway both win?
The universe will temporarily stop and Baffert in a horse suit will get into the field.

NTamm1215 04-21-2012 12:33 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Calzone Lord (Post 854353)
Not to a Lava Man like extent ... but Isn't He Clever's trainer is based at Sunland and Isn't He Clever's form is many, many lengths better at Sunland than anywhere else.

You can't trust him outside of Sunland until he runs just one decent race. He's run three pretty excellent races there and zero decent races everywhere else. They should stay put in New Mexico for now.
It has a lot to do with Henry Dominguez's terrible record outside of Arizona and New Mexico. He has now shipped Twelve Twenty Two out of NM twice in the last year and she has been pummeled on both occasions.

Isn't He Clever is a serious candidate to finish last if he makes the field.

RockHardTen1985 04-21-2012 01:18 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by NTamm1215 (Post 854391)
The universe will temporarily stop and Baffert in a horse suit will get into the field.
Even though I dislike Castaway, its not like that would be a shock if they both won. THey are 2-1 and 3-1 on the morning lines.

tjfla 04-21-2012 04:18 PM
Stays

#21 Isn't He Clever
#22 Optimizer

Danzig 04-21-2012 04:30 PM
too bad about reveron-don't know that he would have made the field, but seems a decent horse.

Kasept 04-21-2012 05:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Danzig (Post 854489)
too bad about reveron-don't know that he would have made the field, but seems a decent horse.
It's a very minor issue that was detected early. A fissure NOT a fracture. Off 6-8 weeks.


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