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The Indomitable DrugS 02-04-2007 12:02 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SniperSB23
I'm starting to understand trip handicapping, it means finding excuses for the horses you like and finding reasons to diminish the performance of horses you don't like. It is a handicapper's dream since it never makes them wrong.
In that case...you really don't understand it at all....and have a lot to learn.

blackthroatedwind 02-04-2007 12:06 AM
Sniper
 
While I know you are just having fun here, which is obviously totally cool, I will say ( for what it's worth ) that I have spent a lot of time discussing the races and watching replays with DrugS and I have a huge amount of respect for his opinion.

He's a pathetic excuse for a human being, and really only of actual value during an unexpected flood, but he can handicap circles around 99% of the horseplaying population.

The Bid 02-04-2007 12:08 AM
BTW,

In your opinion how many does Invasor win by with no trouble. How many Lengths do you think that mild check and heel clip cost him.

blackthroatedwind 02-04-2007 12:10 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Bid
BTW,

In your opinion how many does Invasor win by with no trouble. How many Lengths do you think that mild check and heel clip cost him.
The trouble cost him somewhere in the area of a length, maybe less and maybe a little more, but I think he more than made up for that with the rest of his trip.

To be perfectly honest I think if you switched his trip with Hesanoldsalt's the result would have been closer than it was.

The Indomitable DrugS 02-04-2007 12:12 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
He's a pathetic excuse for a human being.
Yeah, but I make up for that with my dashingly good looks!

blackthroatedwind 02-04-2007 12:14 AM
By the way, I'm an Invasor fan, and have been one since what I thought was a very underrated win in the Pimlico Special. People tended to discount that victory because it came over Wanderin Boy but to me he acted as his own rabbit that day, keeping a loose speed honest against his own best talents, and then taking a breather late on the turn before rerallying to run that one down. You cannot do that unless you possess unusual talent. I have liked him in every one of his starts and am on record as saying that he deserved as much respect as Bernardini going into the Classic.

blackthroatedwind 02-04-2007 12:14 AM
Sniper
 
Oh yeah, and one other thing, DrugS does all that while overcoming the handicap of being hideously ugly.

Sightseek 02-04-2007 12:20 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
I just watched the race a few more times.....


Invasor had an overall good trip and arguably an easier one than the second finisher. He also won by a few lengths in hand and was clearly the best horse but this " troubled trip " is being massively overrated around here. So he snuck inside and was briefly stymied and had to wait for room.....big deal. Hesanoldsalt was sawed off at the start when the horse outside of him came over ( the horse inside of him took the worst of this ) and entered the first turn at least five wide and was never inside the 3 1/2 to 4 path and then rallied 5 wide on the second turn. I don't want to make too much of the wides but the Gulfstream rail was surely good today ( probably not a HUGE advantage ) and perhaps the best part of the track. I am in no way suggesting Hesanoldsalt is the horse Invasor is, but merely pointing out his trip, and I do not believe it was easier than saving all the ground, on both turns, while being relatively briefly steadied off behind horses.

To me one of the most common mistakes people make in watching races is overrating trouble. Trouble is worst early when it costs horses valuable position while expending the same energy as the better position would have cost them. Saving ground, and having a sweet trip, while encountering a little traffic, is far from a bad trip and in fact an all-around good one.

Just my opinion.
Come on, this is Zito's horse...don't you think you are being a little biased here? If Invasor's trip wasn't as bad as you say it is, why the knock on Jara earlier in the thread? Being boxed in AND stumbling/clipping heels is a bit worse in my opinion than a 'little traffic'.

blackthroatedwind 02-04-2007 12:24 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sightseek
Come on, this is Zito's horse...don't you think you are being a little biased here? If Invasor's trip wasn't as bad as you say it is, why the knock on Jara earlier in the thread? Being boxed in AND stumbling/clipping heels is a bit worse in my opinion than a 'little traffic'.
The trips are what they are and I think if you watch the race a couple more times you will see that I in no way overexagerated Hesanoldsalt's trip. I am not way suggesting he is close to the horse Invasor is but merely suggesting that his trip was less than perfect in contrasting ways to Invasor's.

I knock Jara because I believe that a major responsibility of a rider is, when riding superior horses in races, to take no unnecessary chances. I applaud riders that take risks, like Jara's today, when they ride an inferior horse and need to get lucky to win, or even end up close, but I do not believe every horse should be ridden the same.

pmayjr 02-04-2007 12:35 AM
Sorry if this has already been mentioned, but didn't when Invasor clipped heels and almost go down kinda remind y'all of Afleet Alex in the Preakness a little bit? What a horse!

blackthroatedwind 02-04-2007 12:48 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by pmayjr
didn't when Invasor clipped heels and almost go down kinda remind y'all of Afleet Alex in the Preakness a little bit?

Not even remotely. He stumbled very briefly and hardly " almost went down ".

I suggest a viewing of the replay....pan and head-on as you are offering a massively distorted view of what actually took place.

Quite frankly I see tougher trips on a regular day to day basis. Trips are about taking everything that happens in a race into account, both individually and as a whole, and not about necessarily focusing on one specific incident. The bottom line is the brief trouble Invasor encountered did not massively supercede all the good things that happened to him in the race.

brianwspencer 02-04-2007 12:51 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
By the way, I'm an Invasor fan, and have been one since what I thought was a very underrated win in the Pimlico Special.... I have liked him in every one of his starts and am on record as saying that he deserved as much respect as Bernardini going into the Classic.
amen

[b]
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

In the BC Classic....he got his trip and setup...but he beat a very tough field.
As far as the Classic goes, he showed an entirely new dimension in his American races -- coming from as far off the pace as he did. It was as much a factor of the other speed signed on as anything, but let's not pretend that he just waltzed along near the pace like he had prior. This coming from well off the pace thing is something you only see in his last two races. So I respectfully contend that he didn't get "his trip" in the Classic. A good trip for certain, but not the one we were accustomed to.

King Glorious 02-04-2007 03:10 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
I just watched the race a few more times.....


Invasor had an overall good trip and arguably an easier one than the second finisher. He also won by a few lengths in hand and was clearly the best horse but this " troubled trip " is being massively overrated around here. So he snuck inside and was briefly stymied and had to wait for room.....big deal. Hesanoldsalt was sawed off at the start when the horse outside of him came over ( the horse inside of him took the worst of this ) and entered the first turn at least five wide and was never inside the 3 1/2 to 4 path and then rallied 5 wide on the second turn. I don't want to make too much of the wides but the Gulfstream rail was surely good today ( probably not a HUGE advantage ) and perhaps the best part of the track. I am in no way suggesting Hesanoldsalt is the horse Invasor is, but merely pointing out his trip, and I do not believe it was easier than saving all the ground, on both turns, while being relatively briefly steadied off behind horses.

To me one of the most common mistakes people make in watching races is overrating trouble. Trouble is worst early when it costs horses valuable position while expending the same energy as the better position would have cost them. Saving ground, and having a sweet trip, while encountering a little traffic, is far from a bad trip and in fact an all-around good one.

Just my opinion.
Couldn't have said it better myself. Invasor's trip was perfect up to the point where he had to wait a second. That cost him nothing more than a length or so in my opinion. He was the best horse in the race, was more set to run than I figured he would be, and won like he was supposed to.

King Glorious 02-04-2007 03:13 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
The trouble cost him somewhere in the area of a length, maybe less and maybe a little more, but I think he more than made up for that with the rest of his trip.

To be perfectly honest I think if you switched his trip with Hesanoldsalt's the result would have been closer than it was.
Agree. Also see where someone mentions Afleet Alex' Preakness. I don't know about u but I thought that stumble was overrated too. It happened so quickly that Alex never lost momentum. I was grilled for saying that I didn't think that incident cost him any more than a length or so that day.

cmorioles 02-04-2007 05:55 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
I looked over the final time of the days races again at GP today. I will take a stab at what the Beyer figures will be when they are published tomorrow.

Invasor- 108 (Donn Handicap)

Spin Master- 100 (Race #2 ALW winner)

Keyed Entry- 106 (Deputy Minister Handicap)

Curlin- 103 (Race #4 MSW winner)

Adore The Gold- 103 (Swale Stakes winner)

Nobiz Like Shobiz- 99 (Holy Bull Stakes winner)
Here are Beyers from Saturday at GP and SA.

Spin Master, 99
Keyed Entry, 105
Adore the Gold, 102
Sweet Return, 104
Giant Wrecker, 103
Naissance Royale, 98
Invasor, 109
Arsen Squad, 104
Ravel, 102
Curlin, 101
Nobiz Like Shobiz, 98

Kasept 02-04-2007 05:57 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cannon Shell
His 'turn of foot' was achieved in a race where they were crawling home. The last 3/8ths in 38 seconds, last 1/8th in 12.3. The very next race a 100-1 shot ran his last 3/8ths in 36.4 and his last 1/8th in 12.2 going the same distance.

In essence the other horses were stopping so badly he looked like he was closing fast, which he wasn't. He is a very good horse who overcame trouble to swamp a bunch of listed type horse. No more, no less.
Had stopped for a bite to eat on way home, and was reviewing the charts for the day. Was startled by the numbers I saw and pointed out above. I don't think it's possible to give a more succinct overview of what we saw in the Donn than that above by C.S.

Kasept 02-04-2007 06:27 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sightseek
Come on, this is Zito's horse...don't you think you are being a little biased here? If Invasor's trip wasn't as bad as you say it is, why the knock on Jara earlier in the thread? Being boxed in AND stumbling/clipping heels is a bit worse in my opinion than a 'little traffic'.
Jara wouldn't have been in position to BE boxed in or clip heels if he had taken the path of least resistence that Invasor has prefered in virtually all his North American starts/wins... And that is to float 3 or so paths off the inside and swing around the leaders and storm home.

And since you mention Zito, he said that he also thought 'Salt' had a shot just after the eighth pole. He said had one of the other horses approaching the leaders assumed the spot being vacated by one of the tiring pacesetters, Invasor may have found no room at all to get through. He laughingly acknowledged it would have been the only way to have come away with a win Saturday.

But he was THRILLED with the 2nd, as was owner Charlotte Weber (who had been very disappointed by Miesque's Approval 90 minutes earlier).

Dunbar 02-04-2007 07:15 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
I looked over the final time of the days races again at GP today. I will take a stab at what the Beyer figures will be when they are published tomorrow.

Invasor- 108 (Donn Handicap)

Spin Master- 100 (Race #2 ALW winner)

Keyed Entry- 106 (Deputy Minister Handicap)

Curlin- 103 (Race #4 MSW winner)

Adore The Gold- 103 (Swale Stakes winner)

Nobiz Like Shobiz- 99 (Holy Bull Stakes winner)
Nice work, DrugS! None off by more than 1 except for Curlin's which was off by 2.

--Dunbar

Danzig 02-04-2007 08:33 AM
as far as the time goes for the donn-invasor had to slow his momentum thru much of the turn and then had the clip, that slowed him a bit too.
of course we'll never know how it would have gone, if he'd have gotten a clean trip, but i know there wasn't just the bobble to overcome time-wise.


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