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-   -   BC Stunner: 2 days, 3 new races.. (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=8594)

SniperSB23 01-17-2007 09:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
Absolutely he would have. He had won the 6.5 furlong Vosburgh by 6 1/2 lengths, in last-to-first fashion, in the supersonic final time of 1:14 3/5ths. In the words of Tom Durkin after the wire that day: "Just 1/5th off the track record in the 66th Vosburgh Stakes.....Ghostzapper...a sprinting force!" Instead of passing the BC Sprint...Frankel would have run him in the BC Dirt Mile after the Vosburgh. Which, he would have won.
Ghostzapper was a half sibling to confirmed sprinter City Zip...and Frankel waited until August of his 4-year-old season to stretch him out. Here are some quotes.

Before his 4yo debut in the 7 furlong Tom Fool "Trainer Bobby Frankel opted to skip the Breeders' Cup Sprint because he believed Ghostzapper's closing style would work against him at Santa Anita."

After his 4yo debut win in the Tom Fool "Frankel, who won the Tom Fool last year with Aldebaran, said Ghostzapper would be pointed to the $200,000 Alfred G. Vanderbilt at Saratoga on Aug. 14 as a prep for the Grade 1 Forego on Sept. 4, also at Saratoga. Frankel said he is inclined to try and stretch out Ghostzapper here in the fall.

"With the speed he showed [Sunday], going long you might be able to sit there with him and turn him loose in the stretch," Frankel said. "Everybody wants to pigeonhole him as a sprinter; we don't know. He's an easy horse to rate."

Here is what was published in the DRF on why Frankel pulled out of the SIX FURLONG Vanderbilt Stakes. "Instead, Frankel will now point Ghostzapper to the Grade 3, $200,000 Philip Iselin Handicap at Monmouth Park on Aug. 21.

Frankel wouldn't come out and say it, but part of what went into his decision is his dissatisfaction with the weight assignments for the race. Ghostzapper was assigned 122 pounds, compared with 120 for Speightstown."

How can you be so sure that Ghostzapper would have run in the Classic, as a 4-year-old, if they had a Breeders Cup Dirt Mile. While the purse of the Classic is much greater---a Breeders Cup win, at the important commercial stallion distance of a mile on dirt, isn't exacly something to scoff at. Most Breeders Cup Classic meant horses, aren't looking to run in six furlong races in Mid-August.




Bernardini probably (maybe almost certainly) beats Invasor this year if all of the cheap speed that was in that race (Brother Derek, Lawyer Ron etc.) opted for the dirt mile instead. With a slower pace, he wouldn't have been gunned as early as he was by Castallano. Giacomo, would of also not run as well.

A horse like Concern, would have never won the Classic without the intense pace setup he got.

I also happen to think fast-paced championship races are much more exciting to watch than the slower-paced tactical versions we are now more likely to see.

I just don't see that many owners not trying their horse in the Classic if they think he has a shot and way too many of them think there horse is better than it is. I actually think it is more likely that too many Milers run in the Classic on their connections delusional dreams that they can win the Classic. I agree that had GZ not gone in the Iselin that the Mile would have been likely. Once he went in that race he was going to the Classic though. So I guess the only question is whether a BC Dirt Mile would have changed their decision from the Iselin to the Vanderbilt.

I think Invasor wins the race either way. He could have sat a lot closer if there was less pace, he's been the type of horse that can alter his style to fit the pace scenario. I don't think he needed the pace to beat Bernardini. I also think that if there is a perceived lack of pace in the Classic then we will absolutely see some frontrunners considering the Mile decide to go to the Classic and see if they can wire the field since the Mile pace scenario will likely be unfavorable to them.

Linny 01-17-2007 09:21 AM

Would you rather run against Sun King and Lawyer Ron for $1m or Invasor and Premium Tap for $3m. If you have Bernardini, you go for the Classic, if you have a lesser G1 winner or a non G1 winner or have any doubts about your horse being a G1 quality 10f horse, you skip to the Dirt Mile.

SniperSB23 01-17-2007 09:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Linny
Would you rather run against Sun King and Lawyer Ron for $1m or Invasor and Premium Tap for $3m. If you have Bernardini, you go for the Classic, if you have a lesser G1 winner or a non G1 winner or have any doubts about your horse being a G1 quality 10f horse, you skip to the Dirt Mile.

And Discreet Cat? The problem is horses like Lawyer Ron should have never been in the BC Classic to begin with. Too many connections of horses are convinced their horses are way better than they are and I doubt many of them are going to be convinced that their horse doesn't have a shot in the Classic so should go in the Dirt Mile.

Danzig 01-17-2007 09:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SniperSB23
And Discreet Cat? The problem is horses like Lawyer Ron should have never been in the BC Classic to begin with. Too many connections of horses are convinced their horses are way better than they are and I doubt many of them are going to be convinced that their horse doesn't have a shot in the Classic so should go in the Dirt Mile.

lawyer ron is a multiple grade winner, and graded placed. he belonged.

volponi and arcangues probably didn't belong either...

Kasept 01-17-2007 09:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by merasmag
of plagarism-LOL...or else it's a matter of great minds thinking alike---these guys here aren't into racing so i can't turn the speakers on to hear your show...and the witching hour is THE BEST time to do racing stuff, not to mention i have actual work to do during the day-GO BEARS!!!

Your work during the day isn't of great concern to me.. The wake of your befoulings at night are. Your visits are akin to the nocturnal mischief of raccoons and possums, and as such, I tire of coming here every morning to find the garage rummaged through and the garbage cans overturned...

Your edgy chortle above doesn't approach anything resembling a retraction or apology despite a clear presentation belying your insult. I'm waiting...

Coach Pants 01-17-2007 09:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept
Your work during the day isn't of great concern to me.. The wake of your befoulings at night are. Your visits are akin to the nocturnal mischief of raccoons and possums, and as such, I tire of coming here every morning to find the garage rummaged through and the garbage cans overturned...

Your edgy chortle above doesn't approach anything resembling a retraction or apology despite a clear presentation belying your insult. I'm waiting...

A raccoon!! Hahah!
Speaking of raccoons...I watched The Great Outdoors this weekend. Still as funny today as it was when I was a kid.

Linny 01-17-2007 09:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SniperSB23
And Discreet Cat? The problem is horses like Lawyer Ron should have never been in the BC Classic to begin with. Too many connections of horses are convinced their horses are way better than they are and I doubt many of them are going to be convinced that their horse doesn't have a shot in the Classic so should go in the Dirt Mile.

The problem is that if those horses don't belong in the Classic then they don't belong in the Dirt Mile either because they are supposed to BOTH be of the same caliber. Also, by giving those kind of horses an "out" you create dull Classics. I'm looking at the chart from '06. St Liam Flower Alley and Perfect Drift were 1-2-3. Take out the "chaff" from that running and you are lfet with those three, Borrego, maybe Sun King (who might have opted for the Dirt Mile if it existed) maybe Oratorio and Suave but who else? Super Frolic, Choctaw Nation, Starcraft, Sir Shackelton, Jack Sullivan? Were any of them really worthy?
Look at "07. After the top 3 finishers and Lava Man, were any of them truly legit G1, 10f horses? Most of the BC races (at least in retrospect) are "filler horses" who's connections thought it worth it to take a shot. They fill such races as the BC, the Derby etc because of the money and prestige. If they had a million dollar option where the level of competition was clearly easier AND they still get full Breeders' Cup credentials (horse and human) why not opt for it. It just another incentive (IMO) to not run against the very best.

blackthroatedwind 01-17-2007 10:00 AM

I think what some people are missing is that there aren't enough quality horses racing to fill the new races. It will simply cause both a dilution and lessening of quality.

Isn't it enough that the BC has cannabalized Grade 1 racing around the country......did they really also need to savage themselves?

SniperSB23 01-17-2007 10:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
I think what some people are missing is that there aren't enough quality horses racing to fill the new races. It will simply cause both a dilution and lessening of quality.

Isn't it enough that the BC has cannabalized Grade 1 racing around the country......did they really also need to savage themselves?

I listed these before but do you really think a race comprised of the horses on this list would have been that terrible of a G1? And I don't think any of the other races would have been overly compromised by the loss of the horses listed below.

Discreet Cat
Silver Train
Badge of Silver
Sun King
Brother Derek
Lawyer Ron
Sharp Humor
Siren Lure
Wanderin Boy
Super Frolic
Mass Media
Commentator
Lewis Michael
Sir Greeley
War Front
It's No Joke
Magna Graduate
Papi Chullo
Straight Line
Awesome Twist

brianwspencer 01-17-2007 10:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Linny
Look at "07. After the top 3 finishers and Lava Man, were any of them truly legit G1, 10f horses?

I would contend that David Junior was a legitimate 10f horse (and George Washington ran a big race), the dirt experiment just went awry...but that will continue to happen with Euro horses because some of them will handle it wonderfully (Giant's Causeway, Sahkee...), and others like David Junior won't handle it.

I don't think it means they don't belong per se.

blackthroatedwind 01-17-2007 10:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SniperSB23
I listed these before but do you really think a race comprised of the horses on this list would have been that terrible of a G1? And I don't think any of the other races would have been overly compromised by the loss of the horses listed below.

Discreet Cat
Silver Train
Badge of Silver
Sun King
Brother Derek
Lawyer Ron
Sharp Humor
Siren Lure
Wanderin Boy
Super Frolic
Mass Media
Commentator
Lewis Michael
Sir Greeley
War Front
It's No Joke
Magna Graduate
Papi Chullo
Straight Line
Awesome Twist

Pretty much....I do think it would have been a terrible Grade 1, especially considering what it would have done to two other Grade 1s being run that day.

There are some names on that list that barely belong out of claiming races.

SniperSB23 01-17-2007 10:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
Pretty much....I do think it would have been a terrible Grade 1, especially considering what it would have done to two other Grade 1s being run that day.

There are some names on that list that barely belong out of claiming races.

Apparently we haven't been watching the same "G1" races in the past couple years. I've seen far worse than that pass for a G1 and actually think it would be well above average for a G1. Yeah, it might have crippled the Cigar Mile which is a valid argument but I don't think it would have a major effect on the BC and would make for a solid betting race.

blackthroatedwind 01-17-2007 10:30 AM

First of all your list would have taken EIGHT horses out of other BC races.


Secondly, five competed in a $200K Grade 2 or 3 race earlier in the day, so I can't imagine how you could even suggest they belong in a Grade 1 championship race.

Thirdly, of the remaining seven, one was hurt ( Commentator )or he would have belonged in the my first grouping, Mass Media had barely competed in 2006, Sharp Humor had made his first start off an injury in a race restricted to NY Breds two weeks earlier and Sir Greeley was too busy sucking up for second in a race that collapsed on that very day in NY ( and was also coming off a layoff ).

That leaves my friend Wanderin Boy, who I am biased about, and while he might have been reasonable, I can't defend his being one of the main contendors in ANY championship race....Silver Train who won the BC Sprint in the prior year and yet did not defend that title so one could say he belongs in my initial category, and Discreet Cat....who I already said belonged. however, one could also argue that there were other BC races for him and he chose to simply sit out.

SniperSB23 01-17-2007 10:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
First of all your list would have taken EIGHT horses out of other BC races.


Secondly, five competed in a $200K Grade 2 or 3 race earlier in the day, so I can't imagine how you could even suggest they belong in a Grade 1 championship race.

Thirdly, of the remaining seven, one was hurt ( Commentator )or he would have belonged in the my first grouping, Mass Media had barely competed in 2006, Sharp Humor had made his first start off an injury in a race restricted to NY Breds two weeks earlier and Sir Greeley was too busy sucking up for second in a race that collapsed on that very day in NY ( and was also coming off a layoff ).

That leaves my friend Wanderin Boy, who I am biased about, and while he might have been reasonable, I can't defend his being one of the main contendors in ANY championship race....Silver Train who won the BC Sprint in the prior year and yet did not defend that title so one could say he belongs in my initial category, and Discreet Cat....who I already said belonged. however, one could also argue that there were other BC races for him and he chose to simply sit out.

I guess I feel that losing those 8 horses from BC races would have had little to no effect on the BC program (and I'm well aware that BOS hit the board in his race) and that the addition of the Dirt Mile on the prior day would have made for two exciting days of racing which would have more than made up for the loss of those 8 horses. The funny thing is next time a Discreet Cat situation occurs like this year and the horse goes to the Dirt Mile everyone will blame the addition on the BC Dirt Mile when in reality the horse would have skipped the program if it were under the old scenario. Have they officially announced all of these races as G1 races? I wouldn't be opposed to them making the three additional races G2 although I doubt they would do that.

Linny 01-17-2007 10:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by brianwspencer
I would contend that David Junior was a legitimate 10f horse (and George Washington ran a big race), the dirt experiment just went awry...but that will continue to happen with Euro horses because some of them will handle it wonderfully (Giant's Causeway, Sahkee...), and others like David Junior won't handle it.

I don't think it means they don't belong per se.

I do think at a certain number of the Euros will still opt for the Classic. David Junior loves 10f but not dirt. Geo Washington did run well considering that he'd have been odds on in the Mile and the move to the Classic was a sporting attempt to duplicate the sensation of Giant's Causeway's game effort in defeat. There are a number of Euro's who prefer 10f to 12f and they may opt for the Classic over the turf.
Most of the weakening will be by US based owners.

blackthroatedwind 01-17-2007 10:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Linny
Geo Washington did run well considering that he'd have been odds on in the Mile and the move to the Classic was a sporting attempt to duplicate the sensation of Giant's Causeway's game effort in defeat.


I wouldn't classify it as a " sporting attempt " at all. It was a monetary decision based on his potential increased value with a first or second place finish. Even a victory in the BC mile would have done little to increase his value.

If anything, one could argue they robbed one race of a potentially exciting performer to barely enhance another due to personal greed.

Sightseek 01-17-2007 11:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
I wouldn't classify it as a " sporting attempt " at all. It was a monetary decision based on his potential increased value with a first or second place finish. Even a victory in the BC mile would have done little to increase his value.

If anything, one could argue they robbed one race of a potentially exciting performer to barely enhance another due to personal greed.

Not to mention a shot at the Sheiks.

brianwspencer 01-17-2007 11:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
I wouldn't classify it as a " sporting attempt " at all. It was a monetary decision based on his potential increased value with a first or second place finish. Even a victory in the BC mile would have done little to increase his value.

If anything, one could argue they robbed one race of a potentially exciting performer to barely enhance another due to personal greed.

I guess I just don't feel that George Washington had a whole lot to prove going a mile on the grass -- the connections obviously wanted to improve his value as a stallion, but at the same time it added intrigue to the event.

Adding the world's best miler to America's richest race wasn't such a bad thing for the race itself.

blackthroatedwind 01-17-2007 11:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sightseek
Not to mention a shot at the Sheiks.


Agreed...though one could argue that their malevolence was in some ways also sporting in this case.


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