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-   -   Two at Toga (2023) (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=72557)

theguarantee 08-12-2023 11:19 AM

Best Bet: Race 11: #2 Waterville 7/2 - tried this one earlier in the meet expecting improvement and got it but just had too much work to do in the stretch. Likes the inner, is getting better and Rosario gets an extra 1/16th to hopefully get the job done today.

Best Value: Race 7 - #4 Love Appeals 6/1 - I was between Redefined and Love Appeals in here and think either or if not both will offer value. It’s possible that Love Reigns will just prove too good and I’ve been a big fan of hers but surely this couldn’t have been the plan. Redefines has some nice races to get back to and isn’t fair off her if improved and ready to go today. I ultimately decided I wanted to go with Love Appeals however. I thought her debut was excellent and portended big things to come. The second race things didn’t go right and she really excelled when cutting back to what I think she really wants to do - sprint. I thought she was tons the best down at Monmouth in a race I’m not sure they really wanted to run in but Flo took her a bit further back than needed in my opinion. Like the switch back to Manny today. Draws nice and he should be able to get her into a nice spot and she possesses some real kick in the lane when getting her trip.

Good luck.

moses 08-13-2023 07:18 AM

Richie’s princess won.

$176.00 wagered
$204.50 returned

I didn’t have a lot of time today.

First: Race 6 - #9 Lady Prospect 6/1
Second: Race 8 - #8 Whittington Park 5/1

theguarantee 08-13-2023 03:58 PM

Long day.

Race 8: #8 Whittington Park 8/1
Race 10: #5 No Nay Hudson 6/1

moses 08-13-2023 08:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by moses (Post 1174803)
Richie’s princess won.

$176.00 wagered
$204.50 returned

I didn’t have a lot of time today.

First: Race 6 - #9 Lady Prospect 6/1
Second: Race 8 - #8 Whittington Park 5/1

I sucked today. Hopefully Wednesday will be better.

$184.00 wagered
$204.50 returned

moses 08-16-2023 06:11 AM

Wednesday picks.

Race 3 - #6 Vitaemi, 9/2.

Race 8 - #7 Orange Freeze, 5/1.

moses 08-16-2023 10:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by moses (Post 1174827)
Wednesday picks.

Race 3 - #6 Vitaemi, 9/2.

Race 8 - #7 Orange Freeze, 5/1.

Vitaemi is scratched. I’m gonna take a big swing here instead.

Race 1 - #7 Bertrille, 20/1. I almost bet this one last time out when she finished last. I’m not overly impressed with the other horses in here and think her works have been solid enough, now has the debut out of the way and will hopefully break better.

theguarantee 08-16-2023 12:11 PM

Will get to updating numbers at some point today.

Best Bet: Race 8 - #1 Kosuke 6/1 -Interesting that Bond reaches for Jose here. While he hasn't had a ton of success finding the winners circle this meet his horses have been firing with 9/16 hitting the board. I don't think there's anyone I'm supposed to be particularly scared of in here and I was between her and Smokie Eyes. Guessing this one is more likely to give value given that Irad jumped on there and Clement made some comments about that one that seem positive... Kosuke however may still have the most upside of this group with only three starts to date. I wouldn't say Torres did anything wrong in the last but ill trust Jose to ration her speed a bit today which I think could be a weapon in todays field.

Best Value: Race 6 - #4 Cuz Ur Pretty 9/2 - Not in love with the rest of the card and its possible Portage is just a new horse/too much for these but if not I think this is the most likely winner. The fact that Saez takes a mount for Progno is worth noting and he's a perfect fit to get aggressive and try to bottom out this field on the front today.

Capote3 08-16-2023 01:09 PM

Anyone know what’s going on with Twinspires? I’m having withdrawals

theguarantee 08-16-2023 04:07 PM

mine has been saying the same all day. They had a message up this morning about a half hour update. Guess thats didn't happen. Luckily I'm not really using them of late, a bummer for their users though for sure.

theguarantee 08-16-2023 04:25 PM

Coppa Girl ran just OK paying $4.90 to place. know it all Audrey ran valiant setting a hot pace going too long, would look for on a cutback.

Le Dom Bro won at preposterously low odds.

CarL Spackler got the right trip and didn't exactly roll as I expected but was an impressive winner. Sweetest Princess had every chance and just flattened late.

Picks since then have been awful with the exception of Kosuke who Jose sent on a suicide mission today and might still have some ability.

theguarantee 08-16-2023 04:28 PM

Wagered: $200.00
Returned: $239.50

theguarantee 08-16-2023 04:55 PM

Clearly bet the wrong Bond horse today...

moses 08-17-2023 10:15 AM

$200.00 wagered
$210.20 returned

I’ll post picks in a bit.

moses 08-17-2023 10:37 AM

Thursday picks.

First bet: Race 3 - #3 Battle Scars, 8/1
Second bet: Race 7 - #11 Fancy Stax, 12/1

moses 08-17-2023 12:52 PM

8/1 on the 4 race 2 is pretty nice. Could wire.

moses 08-17-2023 12:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by moses (Post 1174858)
8/1 on the 4 race 2 is pretty nice. Could wire.

I wish I bet more on her.

theguarantee 08-17-2023 01:08 PM

^Nice call. I was going to bet her and forgot I rewound the feed. Doh

theguarantee 08-17-2023 01:10 PM

Best Bet: Race 3 - #6 Agent Creed
Best Value: Race 7 #7 Mirabella

moses 08-18-2023 12:11 PM

$208.00 wagered
$210.20 returned

Friday picks.

Race 7 - #4 Speed Bias 2/1
Race 10 - #13 Little Maddy Brown 12/1

theguarantee 08-18-2023 12:34 PM

208.00
239.50

Wondering if Jose Ortiz has decided to start riding Agent Creed yet or not. Mirabella was a pretty lackluster third although they all turned out to be running for second behind Chad's horse in there.

Best Bet:Race 9 - #2 Prisoner 7/2 -This horse has been a bit of a win machine and I like that he finally seems to be figuring out how to harness his speed a bit and maybe now finishing off races a little better as a result. Baker had a winner recently and hoping his barn is about to heat up.

Best Value: Race 8 -#10 Go Otto Go 10/1 - Not sure what type of price to expect but I liked his debut a lot. Breaking from the rail had to tap on the breaks and showed nice athleticism to get in position and kicked home nicely. The second race I thought was a decent field and not going to hold that speed and fade effort to against him. Looks a big chance in this field today to me.


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