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Antitrust32 06-03-2009 01:04 PM
I'm completely tossing Charitable Man... so I guess I hope he gets over bet.

Not going to do much with the race, thinking of a 3 horse $1 exacta and trifecta bet... Dunkirk, MTB & Flying Private (I know I may be crazy for this but I thought the horse showed some promise at Pimlico, should be able to get the distance and may be a price - could run third or maybe catch 2nd)


Also may put $20 on Dunkirk to win.

Thats about it.

the_fat_man 06-03-2009 01:09 PM
What I miss most about working on the backstretch is the opportunity to unload on those low price, little chance, sure things.:rolleyes:

slotdirt 06-03-2009 01:09 PM
I would be absolutely and completely shocked if Dunkirk won this race.

Antitrust32 06-03-2009 01:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by the_fat_man
What I miss most about working on the backstretch is the opportunity to unload on those low price, little chance, sure things.:rolleyes:

who do you like for the race fat man?

you think its good that I'm tossing Charity man, right?

NTamm1215 06-03-2009 01:15 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by slotdirt
I would be absolutely and completely shocked if Dunkirk won this race.
Not as shocked as I'd be if Summer Bird wins.

NT

Gander 06-03-2009 01:16 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by hockey2315
There's almost no chance that you're right - despite the amount of money the KMc barn usually bets.
You will be surprised at the amount of money Charitable man takes, and maybe I wont be right... but I will guarntee Charitable man will open as the favorite. The barn money will come early and in droves. I think he will off favored just like he did in the Peter Pan, a race where he figured to be 3rd choice behind IC And HB.

I dont really like his chances, despite the barn's confidence. I think he gets gunned down!

CSC 06-03-2009 01:37 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by NTamm1215
Not as shocked as I'd be if Summer Bird wins.

NT
I liked it more when we used to disagree on almost everything...:rolleyes:

hockey2315 06-03-2009 01:40 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gander
You will be surprised at the amount of money Charitable man takes, and maybe I wont be right... but I will guarntee Charitable man will open as the favorite. The barn money will come early and in droves. I think he will off favored just like he did in the Peter Pan, a race where he figured to be 3rd choice behind IC And HB.

I dont really like his chances, despite the barn's confidence. I think he gets gunned down!
You realize that they won't just be taking bets in NY, right?

Gander 06-03-2009 01:49 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by hockey2315
You realize that they won't just be taking bets in NY, right?
Yes, somebody told me that they arent restricting betting to just NY this year.

I dont think Mine that Bird has everybody convinced and many people hate taking 8/5 on a horse that they could have had for 55/1 five weeks ago.

hockey2315 06-03-2009 01:53 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gander
Yes, somebody told me that they arent restricting betting to just NY this year.

I dont think Mine that Bird has everybody convinced and many people hate taking 8/5 on a horse that they could have had for 55/1 five weeks ago.
He was 6-1 in the Preakness vs. a much tougher field and ran 2nd. . . I'm not crazy about him at such a low price, but he's definitely a deserving favorite and the most likely winner.

Gander 06-03-2009 01:59 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by hockey2315
He was 6-1 in the Preakness vs. a much tougher field and ran 2nd. . . I'm not crazy about him at such a low price, but he's definitely a deserving favorite and the most likely winner.
I would agree. He deserves to be favored and is a logical win candidiate. I wont be jumping aboard his train now, I'd rather rip my ticket up.
I like Dunkirk to win this race but will need every bit 7/2-4/1 to get really involved. Never been lucky in this race historically.

Could be a big 2 days for Pletcher. Hes got very logical horses in the 3 stakes on Friday and will have Munnings and I am sure a few others in Saturday's undercard.

hockey2315 06-03-2009 02:01 PM
I like Dunkirk too but I wish he had a bit more speed. . .

CSC 06-03-2009 02:02 PM
Mine that Bird is an awful bet on top in my opinion, does anyone believe his quick explosive move will be as effective on the Belmont's more gradual turns as it was at CD and Pim. If he runs well I think he will have to be closer to the pace and have more of a sustained run, I'm not even sure he is a good bottom exacta candidate...I'll use him in bets but really I'm not expecting much from him this Sat. If he proves me wrong I will be the first to admit it here.

Gander 06-03-2009 02:06 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by hockey2315
I like Dunkirk too but I wish he had a bit more speed. . .
Me too, but every time I look at a big race and it appears "paceless" it never ends up being so. I dont think the pace is going to be "Smarty like" but I think a few will go with Charitable Man making it a moderate pace. Never been a big fan of Dunkirk but hes the only one in here that makes sense to me at the price he will probably be. Should be a good race.

philcski 06-03-2009 02:19 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by letswastemoney
Hmmm...well you have a point. But isn't the Belmont traditionally different?

Sprinters/miler pedigrees can win the Kentucky Derby (Funny Cide, War Emblem, Smarty Jones, Big Brown), but they always seem to come up short in the Belmont to horses that were sired by more of a grinding type.

Tiznow was a grinding type of horse...AP Indy regularly won at classic distances and the Belmont...I don't remember what Jazil's sire did, but it seems that any Better Than Honour offspring will like a longer distance....Birdstone was by Grindstone who didn't win flashy, but he looked like the grinder type that could last forever....Sarava was by Wild Again who had won the BCC just like Tiznow.

But when you look at KD winners, like you said they don't necessarily come from long distance type families.

So maybe 10 furlongs is the limit for those sprinter/miler pedigree types, and 12 furlongs might be pushing it?
He was a damn good horse. In the exacta 14 out of 15 starts, running against an EXCELLENT crop (1988 3yo's), including wins in the Peter Pan, Dwyer, Super Derby, and 2nds in the BCC and Travers.

HaloWishingwell 06-03-2009 02:30 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Danzig
mine that bird got a shout out tonight after the detroit/pittsburgh game.
Did they throw an octopus with his name on it?

HaloWishingwell 06-03-2009 02:32 PM
I'll try another funeral visit with CHOCOLATE CANDY

miraja2 06-03-2009 03:29 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by NTamm1215
Not as shocked as I'd be if Summer Bird wins.

NT
I would think that Summer Bird might be a good horse to use underneath in exotics, except for the fact that his jock just might pull him up 3/4 of the way through the race if it doesn't look like he'll win.....so as not to humilate him.....or something.

NTamm1215 06-03-2009 03:51 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by miraja2
I would think that Summer Bird might be a good horse to use underneath in exotics, except for the fact that his jock just might pull him up 3/4 of the way through the race if it doesn't look like he'll win.....so as not to humilate him.....or something.
Or move him from 10th to 3rd down the backstretch to "get him in position."

KD has pulled that move twice in recent Grade I events. Ask Mr. Sidney and Hold Me Back how well it worked.

NT

Sightseek 06-06-2009 06:53 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CSC
Steve, this opinion was nagging away at me last night and I am curious if you would like to expand your thoughts on this.

Summer Bird to me made a rapid progression(beyer and competition wise) from his Mdn win to ARK derby in a very short time, I thought he had every reason to regress in the Derby. The Derby was a big race for him given he ran well despite not being on the best part of the track. I would expect his next race to be his best given he is still lightly raced, and one angle I love is the the Derby to Belmont angle, skipping the Preak. All in all he is a horse with talent, couple that with his stamina pedigree. He is very interesting, I just hope he doesn't become the buzz horse next week, thus RA's projected entry will most certainly be important to value bettors.
I hope you backed your long love of Summer Bird - well done.

I'm just wondering if NTamm is still in shock (see his post above) - I'm just kidding I didn't like the horse either. :D


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