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-   -   Place Vs. Fave/Long Exacta Running Tab (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=10605)

randallscott35 03-09-2007 09:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Grits
RS, could you go back and edit the first days results? As everything reads right now, from two days, its a mess. ( I still maintain we would have gotten what we needed without Snipers figures, they are very confusing to the entire study.)

The columns would serve better, titled Exactas--Longshots, rather than our names. This would help anyone in following the study. No one cares who we are. LOL

We need a daily total for each column, with cumulative figures brought forward at the top of each new day's figures, rather than simply "RS's carryover" in green ink, with no figure posted regarding the exacta amount. The cumulative figures have got to be added as they are most important to the study. (Or if you like, place the cumulative figures under the daily totals at the end of the daily report.) Somewhere.

I changed the name aspect which I agree with since it doesn't matter who we are. The differential from day 1 is correct and I added the exacta column you asked for yesterday. The exacta amount will be posted every day as Exacta next to a race where it comes into play. There was no exacta you hit today, therefore you didn't see it. I will also add a cummulative with both sets going forward..Therefore, the exacta total was 14.00 going into today and the place was 73.40...These are good additions. RS Give me 10 minutes and it will be updated.

PS- The columns are a bit better now. This isn't excel you know. Haha

SniperSB23 03-09-2007 09:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Grits
RS, could you go back and edit the first days results? As everything reads right now, from two days, its a mess. ( I still maintain we would have gotten what we needed without Snipers figures, they are very confusing to the entire study.)

The columns would serve better, titled Exactas--Longshots, rather than our names. This would help anyone in following the study. No one cares who we are. LOL

We need a daily total for each column, with cumulative figures brought forward at the top of each new day's figures, rather than simply "RS's carryover" in green ink, with no figure posted regarding the exacta amount. The cumulative figures have got to be added as they are most important to the study. (Or if you like, place the cumulative figures under the daily totals at the end of the daily report.) Somewhere.

Um, no. It would have proven absolutely nothing without "my figures". All you would have proven is that the exactas pay out better than the place bets when you neglect to include half of the best place payouts. I think we all already knew that.

Grits 03-09-2007 09:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by randallscott35
Grits, I honestly feel like I'm going in circles here. I can't make everybody happy. I changed the name aspect which I agree with since it doesn't matter who we are. The differential from day 1 is correct and I added the exacta column you asked for yesterday. The exacta amount will be posted every day as Exacta next to a race where it comes into play. There was no exacta you hit today, therefore you didn't see it. I will also add a cummulative with both sets going forward..Therefore, the exacta total was 14.00 going into today and the place was 73.40..This is the best I can do. I think it works, and looks good. And for what we need to do makes sense. RS Give me 10 minutes and it will be updated.

Good-to-go.

randallscott35 03-09-2007 09:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Grits
Good-to-go.

Great, I want to make you happy. Nothing like a woman scorned.

randallscott35 03-09-2007 10:02 PM

Couple of thoughts about what it might look like going forward.

The interesting thing to me is that looking at exacta probables today, that side can make up ground much faster. A 3-1 fave over a 25-1 shot will be a big payout...Plus the disadvantage for the place side is that the favorite's place pool will pretty much always be the largest thus diluting the place payout on the longshot...The problem for the exacta side is, even if the fave wins 30% of the time, that 30% must be followed by a longshot so the number of times that happens could be as few as 8% or lower. Will that be enough to make up the grinding profit of the place bets. We'll see but this will be fun....Tomorrow should bring at least 15 new entries as there are more races and fuller fields.

Grits 03-09-2007 10:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
My mentor always told me to always look out for number one. And try not to step in number two. Now those are words to live by.

This man's a teacher DaHoss, and he teaches me well. He leaves nothing unturned.

randallscott35 03-09-2007 10:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Grits
This man's a teacher DaHoss, and he teaches me well. He leaves nothing unturned.

Haha. For the record Grits, I'm a teacher as well.

--good one by the way Dahoss

blackthroatedwind 03-10-2007 07:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by randallscott35
Couple of thoughts about what it might look like going forward.

The interesting thing to me is that looking at exacta probables today, that side can make up ground much faster. A 3-1 fave over a 25-1 shot will be a big payout.


Pretty prescient comment considering what happened in today's 5th at Santa Anita. Is there something we need to know about you?

Grits 03-10-2007 07:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
Pretty prescient comment considering what happened in today's 5th at Santa Anita. Is there something we need to know about you?

You think that's good, look at the 4th at Aqueduct. Two dead-heated under the chalk. One of 'em's priceless. LOLOLOL

Gp worked too.

blackthroatedwind 03-10-2007 07:55 PM

On a rough look it seemed like the " contest " drew very close to even today.

It's a fun contest and, IMO, as good a learning experience as I have ever seen on a message board. There is no doubt in my mind that this is the kind of stuff that helps everybody be a better player. It's just what racing needs.

Grits 03-10-2007 08:00 PM

ANYTIME, and I do mean ANYTIME that I am included in the same sentence with EVENING ATTIRE, I will be just fine. Being off a little slow has sure worked well for that fine fella, and it will for me.

I've got today's figures but RS does the posting.

randallscott35 03-10-2007 09:15 PM

DAY THREE MARCH 10, 2007 Carryover PLACE BETTING +$144.00

Gulfstream: Race 4-- PL: 6.20 EX: 35.60
Gulfstream: Race 8-- PL: 16.20

Aqueduct: Race 4--PL: 9.80 EX: 43.80
Aqueduct: Race 8--PL: 11.40

Santa Anita:Race 5--PL: 17.20 EX: 109.20 (The Fave By A Mere 3k in the pool)
Santa Anita:Race 6--PL: 9.20

TOTALS SO FAR: EX- $202.60 PL $214.00
DIFFERENTIAL: PL +$11.40


Total Number of 10-1's or higher in spots 1 or 2: (19)
Total Exactas so far: 4

Total Races So Far: 82

An excellent day for the exactas(a.k.a. Grits).

Grits 03-10-2007 09:26 PM

That's a fine report RS, so neat and orderly, includes everything. Sweetheart you outdid yourself. Today, we're hangin' tight.

randallscott35 03-10-2007 09:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Grits
That's a fine report RS, so neat and orderly, includes everything. Sweetheart you outdid yourself. Today, we're hangin' tight.

Glad it met your approval. Quite a day for you. Helped a lot that very few longshots ended up on top today.

randallscott35 03-10-2007 09:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
Pretty prescient comment considering what happened in today's 5th at Santa Anita. Is there something we need to know about you?


:D ...Yeah, I wasn't very good in Algebra but I got A's in Prob/Stat b/c I was a gambler since I was 12 years old...In fact, when I took the class, all of the examples I had to create involved football betting and horse racing. My teacher who was mean, also a thalidomide baby I think, did get a kick out of it.

Grits 03-10-2007 10:14 PM

RS, with tomorrow's totals, let's begin to add the total number of races with the cumulative totals. It's easy at this point to go back three days; or else, when we get to the end of this thing, you'll be going back through an endless number of pages for counting to get the number of races involved.

randallscott35 03-10-2007 10:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Grits
RS, with tomorrow's totals, let's begin to add the total number of races with the cumulative totals. It's easy at this point to go back three days; or else, when we get to the end of this thing, you'll be going back through an endless number of pages for counting to get the number of races involved.

The total number of races overall....The number of instances are there in ( )...How does the number of races overall matter. I mean I'll do it if you want but I can't see how its worthwhile.

Grits 03-11-2007 08:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by randallscott35
The total number of races overall....The number of instances are there in ( )...How does the number of races overall matter. I mean I'll do it if you want but I can't see how its worthwhile.

RS, in all gathering of data, whether it is for horses, humans, rats, or grapefruit. You have base figures at end that form/draw the conclusions of that data.

How do you think studies are concluded in medicine?

By clinical trial on X number of patients. The number of ( )instances( ) are drawn among the patients participating in the trial. That number is listed in summary at the conclusion of said trial, regardless, whether it goes on for 6 weeks, 6 months, or 6 years.

An example of this would be . . . let's say, the clinical trial of VIAGRA. Now, all of the men in the study of this remarkable, life altering medication are listed in the trial.

X overall patients with ED participating in clinical trial

X patients given the drug--X given a placebo (dudes robbed, still)

X patients with no side effects (living large)

X patients with heart attacks

X patients suffering vision problems, ie, blindness

X poor dudes showing up at the ER with their 4 hour or more dilemma, lost regarding how to fix THAT.


***That's why a summary has details, it's all worthwhile. And I do hope those reading have a sense of humor--life would be dull without one.


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