and that is a flaw in tfm's logic. he derides bias on a dirt track, but isn't there a bias on poly? so, it seems the issue for him isn't a bias, he just prefers to bet poly. good for him-perhaps not good for everyone tho.

why do you act like dirt tracks are the only ones with bias? Did you play Del Mar at all last weekend? A horse couldn't win on the lead if they had a 100 yard head start.

105 Beyer for the Travers.

Discreetly Mine, 93.
Rightly So, 100.
Rapport, 103.
Dynaslew, 99.

So Discreetly Mine regressed 18pts gotcha.. Maybe that 111 is the product of 6.5f Spaland?

I don't think so. Surely the scintillating fractions, which were 180 degrees from his last race, were a big part of it. It does show the bias was absolutely brutal, the closers sucked big time, or both.

I had him running 103 pace, 109 speed last time. This time, if I agree with the 93, it will be 129 pace, 93 speed. Those are actually pretty similar overall, but rare to see the same horse change so much. I think it was the bias. It caused the jockeys to sell out for the front end

I agree - I don't think the final time is indicative necessarily of a huge regression. DM's much preferred running style is to stalk, but Todd had to call an audible and change tactics thanks to the track bias. Any horse would be cooked by those fractions, so his closing that slowly doesn't bother me. Had he run his usual stalking race, he wouldn't have been tiring like that. Steve Crist and Andy discussed this on Talking Horses. Everyone knew the race would come up slow in terms of final speed figures, but the pace guys would conclude that DM ran very well.

Unless the colt is dog tired, I hope Todd changes his mind and runs him once more before the BC

He will be hard pressed to win a 6f BC in my opinion, unless he had another prep and showed more ability.

He doesn't have enough ability?

In my opinion, he has not shown it yet. He'll be a big underlay in the BC.

Might have been posted elsewhere, but what was Uncle Mo's fig?

I couldn't find it because no other horse in the race had run yet either.

OK, any idea what the raw number was though?

Well, by the Beyer chart, it was faster than all the stakes. However, 5f races can vary wildly from the standard chart at Saratoga as well as many other tracks. Do a search of "Beyer Speed Chart" and you can look them up very quickly.


I just saw it posted somewhere else as a 102.

Early fig was a 102. But Beyer is consulting with PG1985 later to make sure it's correct.

He might want to consult with somebody on the Travers.

What did you get for the Travers?

Slow. Do some work.

I'm not sure yet, but it won't be near 105. 100 is pushing it in my opinion.

I think he's very good, but I guess we'll see come BC day.

Thanks.

It was the only route so whoever makes it, it is a guess. Looking at the pace of the race, a 105 is extremely unlikely. There are lots of ways to look at the race, and given the biased track I could see giving a 105 thinking the winner ran a new top staying on the rail.

Of course, it wouldn't be a new top if Beyer hadn't changed a 109 (something like that at least) three races back for the winner to a 101.

93 or 95. Sundial.

How do you come up with this?

The very scientific method of pulling it out of his ass.

No not him, I pull things out of my ass... He is much better then me, he got rid of the rat problem QUICK.

The track was not slow yesterday and 203 and change is not too hot...Its a guess like I thought Uncle Mo was 100 and not a 110 like everyone yesterday.

The top two had career route tops of 99 and 97, and now we are asked to believe they ran a 105 at 10f with an honest to fast pace?

Since most of Zenyatta's numbers are made up what difference does it make. Its a guess. Of course they love those triple digits for G1 races so I'm sure this will be no different.

Seems to fall right in line for First Dude.

I don't think he would be my starting point for making a number yesterday, but considering the pace I would have projected him for no more than 90 yesterday, which falls right in line with the race getting about 100.

10 week layoff for Discreetly Mine into the BC Sprint.. :rolleyes:

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-raci...-undergo-tests

They are also checking to see if Super Saver has any other problems besides I'mnotatChurchillitis.

Not thrilled about that with DM, but he has had several hard races in a row........Hopefully Todd will change his mind.

I am just bummed that Lezcano found a way to not win with this guy.

http://www.thoroughbredtimes.com/rac...ee-injury.aspx

This sucks because I really like this horse....well, at least he doesn't need surgery.