DRF|Rachel schools in Fair Grounds paddock

Yet the multitude of munchkins will make her a very short ( one or two), to five choice, and us sharks are circulating anticipating a solid score, with little expenditure, on the overhyped, but freakishly talented short priced filly. NONE of them asking themselves, what ALL trainers would ........Why should I crank my comebacker for 200,000 large when there are five zillion, and some Jacksonism's on the line a month later.

Asmussen, after RA schooled in FG paddock:

“Her gallops have been very strong,’’ Asmussen said. “She’s not 100 percent fit for this race. We’re aware of that. She’s had six works in six months. But she’s a very physical horse. She is Rachel. I am very concerned about her fitness level.’’

Here are Asmussen's stats with layoff horses since 2004:

96-for-643 (14.9% wins) $1.22 ROI - basically you lose 2.5 times more than the takeout - or 39% on every dollar bet.. and 643 races is a big sample.


Here are Asmussen's stats with layoff routers since 2004:

17-for-159 (10.7% wins) $0.65 ROI - you're losing 67.5% on every dollar bet. An unbelievable amount.


It's pretty obvious that Asmussen has very little talent with getting horses ready off of a layoff ... I guess just look at the silly choice of workmate he choose for RA's last work - and the curious comment he made about expecting her to go 1:12 .. she'd have needed like a 21 flat final quarter to do that.

The real bright spot for RA though - is that I believe these Asmussen layoff stats become undermined in her case because Asmussen is also downright terrible 2nd off the layoff and downright terrible 3rd off of the layoff.

He's an ultimate 'strike while the irons hot' kind of trainer .. but when his horses get hurt or go sour and need time .. you can almost forget them. In RA's case - there was no injury and was no going sour.

One of the most talented and special 2yo's I've ever seen was Tiz Wonderful. The piss poor job Asmussen did with him when he brought him back from injury the following year was the stuff of legend.

Really? I thought Discreet Cat left them all in the dust?

Looking at these type of stats is meaningless.. For it to have meaning refine it to look at stakes calibur types. Out of the sample of 643 how many were animals that had won or placed in Graded stakes? Do I really care how Asmussen does getting laimos that suck back to the races?

0-for-14 when they return in Graded Stakes.

8-for-95 with a $0.72 ROI when they return in all stakes.

3-for-34 with a $0.44 ROI in 2010 with all 4+ month layoffs.

0-for-11 with layoffs returning in route races in 2010.

Terrible every way you slice it.

That's strong data right there.

Go all-in against RA and try to score the mother lode???

Ugh, don't get me started on that again.

That was beyond being a piss poor job. That was criminal.

On the bright side, you can breed to him now for pretty reasonable, something I feel you probably won't be able to do in five years.

I strongly AGREE.

The real question is Asmussen's record with 2nd off a layoff?????????????

wife got her Rachel/Zenyatta cards in the mail today, I was pretty confused about why she was getting mail from herself :D

This race could turn out to really tarnish Zenyattas legacy, unfairly IMO.
I feel Zenyatta is simply better, she has won at the Classic distance, she has won on dirt and synthetics and she has defeated the boys. Not to mention she is also undefeated, something Rachel is not. Rachel has also never won at the Classic distance 1 1/4. IMO this can only turn out good if they face each other 3-4 times on different tracks, at different distances. I don't bet Oaklawn much, but the few times I have its been all speed, kinda like the day Conveyance won. Rachel clearly has the advantage over a surface like this, and even though we have not got to see her go 1 1/4 yet I think Zenyatta ultimately will prove to be better at that distance. Another thing many people cant seem to come to grips with is Synthetics... Its part of this game now, I for one hope it goes away forever and its all dirt, but its not and Steve A synthetic stats are horrible and I think everyone agrees whose running style fits those types of surfaces better. The point is, I know its easy to say it now, but I doubt Rachel would have been close to Z in the BCC and I think Zenyatta could have won any of Rachels "big wins" especially The Woodward.

These baffle me considering how good the guy is with first-timers.

Well I don't know what to say...

It's self explanatory I guess.

i'm an RA fan but she wants NO parts of zenyatta.

You have turned the corner. Comgrats

Why not?

Because Zenyatta toyed with donkeys and RA "only manged" to run about a 100 Beyer in a route race comeback for a trainer who is statistically close to being the worst trainer in the entire game off the layoff.

I'm sure they wish they had more time .. but RA obviously has a big chance in the Apple Blossom if they don't chicken out and stall for more time.

Way to keep the hope alive Dougie!

hey, hopes about all they have...lol

I got the Zen beyer about 90 to 92, what do you have. Clearly RA ran the superior race.

As I have written previously, a loss at FG takes the pressure off of RA's camp should they decide to skip the Apple Blossom and train her up into the La Troienne. They can now save face and skip the Hot Springs race. I think Jackson has this fear that RA would be 90% for the Blossom, lose to Zenyatta, and then Zenyatta would never again leave SoCal. If RA shows up in the Stephen Foster, Woodward, and BC Classic, then Z will have to engage her at some point along the road.

So you think the Zenyatta camp fears RA? :zz:

The Zenyatta camp fears the whole east coast, judging by her PPs

I'm not sure they would ship to NM to face Pepper's Pride Kev..

If the last two years are any basis, I think they fear leaving Southern California. I would love to see RA, Z, Summer Bird, and Quality Road all show up in the Stephen Foster at the top of their games.

Certainly Moss has tired of beating up on basically the same horses in SoCal. Doesn't he want his prized mare competing against males on the East Coast? Lady's Secret did it. Personal Ensign did it. RA did it. Wait a second, I just mentioned the last three females who were Horse of the Year.

So when Z doesn't show up at the Apple Blossom I guess we'll know that they are ducking RA...

Looking at personal ensign she definitely feared taking on males on the west coast!

As I'm sure you know, the BC was at Santa Anita the last two years. Since obviously its taken hold with many in the racing business as the end-all to every racing season and that to run outside CA is to not run on synthetics, one can hardly blame Zenyatta's connections for not shipping. I doubt fear was involved in her campaigning last year.

As far as Moss or her fan base being tired of her beating on the same old rivals, I think today's race reveals a somewhat disappointing possibility. Zenyatta faced the worst field of her career today, but because of a less than stellar trip, she made things quite exciting.

Is it possible that these "one hand tied behind my back" efforts will be enough to keep the public satisfied that she's an all-timer?

The reasonable route is often not the most challenging or exciting path. I want to see Zenyatta stray from her comfort zone. If Moss has the best horse in North America, then he should prove it beyond all reasonable doubt by racing her against top males on a conventional dirt surface at least once this year. If Zenyatta runs in the BC again, it will be interesting to see whether she shows up in the Distaff or the Classic.

Why face males on dirt? I thought RA already showed she is better than any of them. If you can't beat little Z, how you gonna beat big Z? Too bad Sherriff retired LIS, you could have shot for the moon and tried to beat his second string.

No, you missed the West Coast-based Azeri, who never ran against the boys when she was HOY.

They fear Colonel Klink :D

Asmussen taking the bullet for this result
 

Not sure how you run a short horse especially if it is the reigning HOY but that's what we got folks from team Asmussen yesterday. I for one am not convinced that what I saw yesterday was a short horse or a horse that may not get back to the level of performance we saw last year.

Rachel was just plain average at best yesterday and at 1-9 and should have easily defeated this bunch if she was short, missing one leg, etc.... Forget the Apple Blossom fans,,,you need to wonder now if you saw Rachel for the last time yesterday.


Scat OUT

from bloodhorse:

There was some doubt from Rachel Alexandra’s camp after the race as to whether she would still be pointed toward the Apple Blossom.
"We'll have to be cautious. We want to do what's right for the mare," Asmussen said. "The filly's lacking fitness. It was my job to have her there, and I didn't do it.
“How tired she is off of that will be established in the coming days. She’s not where I thought she was and if I had thought she’d get beat she wouldn’t run. You take her back, you evaluate her, you see how her mood is, her diet, how she goes back to the racetrack, how she breezes. No crystal ball could see that far ahead."

I always forget about Azeri. Probably because I was never a big fan of her.

Maybe she was a bit short yesterday, but it might turn out that Zardana isn't a plug either. She might be a horse that just wants to run on the dirt. But some credit should be given to her and her connections, even if Shirreffs just sent her their to be a fly in the ointment.

You forgot that, yet you remember Personal Ensign being HOY? (She was not.) Interesting revisionist history.