I hope it's an entertaining few months of politics.

I just saw Palin on tv, and her nipple was showing through her white blouse. I would have thought they(the Repubs) would want to stop this kind of stuff

They got Biden simply saying "She's good looking" on cnn.com like it's an obscene remark, and it does show, like you say, that Biden will have to be very careful not to seem condescending or chauvinistic

Perhaps she'll be the mother figure we need during this New Orleans Gustav Show they're putting on for us, though I don't think it will amount to much

Biden will be walking on eggshells (Jane..you ignorant slut)

I actually think she could be a very tricky match-up for Biden.

Biden is a better debater than Obama and is great at ruthlessly slicing and dicing people up all while maintaing a big smile.

Like Pants says, if he doesn't change his style he could very easily come off as "a bully who offends the soccer moms and ArlJim's of the world"

You get the same comparitive scoring in debates that you tend to get from people in rounds of boxing matches - if it's close, and not obvious who the winner is, the person coming into the contest overmatched will get the edge in scoring. I expect you'll hear Palin to be declared the winner as long as she can avoid saying something stupid.

Obama is now heavily favored to win this election. His odds have fallen below 50 cents on a dollar. McCain's odds have risen above 2-to-1.

Unless that margin begains to tighten - I would think Biden is going to be sent into that debate playing mr. nice guy to such an extreme that you'd think he was going out of his way to try and make Palin look good. I don't expect him to try and bait her into saying something stupid either.

As a strong favorite, they have nothing to gain and possibly something to lose by sending an attack dog with a smile out to savage her.

No they didn't.

The shift in betting odds offshore and the exchange markets indicate the opposite.

when you make a decision that causes you to go from a slightly less than 3/2 underdog to a slightly more than 2/1 underdog - you actually lessened your chances significantly.

What were the odds with Romney as VP?
The Republicans made the race closer.

Exchange markets?
What does that have to do with the price of Key Lime Pie?

I'm going to assume you are trolling me and not serious.

Still, I'll explain odds to you in horse racing terms. This was the result of a study that had a monster sample size of over 1.7 million starters.


Odds Group: ----- Starts: ------ Wins: ------ Win %:
.10 and .49 5,232 3,279 62.7%
.50 and .99 37,832 17,810 47.1%
1.00 and 1.99 127,878 42,384 33.1%
2.00 and 2.99 160,770 38,130 23.7%
3.00 and 3.99 146,444 26,658 18.2%
4.00 and 4.99 120,926 18,133 15.0%
5.00 and 5.99 99,186 12,451 12.6%
6.00 and 6.99 86,216 9,524 11.0%
7.00 and 7.99 75,891 7,330 9.7%
8.00 and 8.99 67,300 6,018 8.9%
9.00 and 9.99 60,439 4,692 7.8%
10.0 and 10.9 53,115 3,852 7.3%
11.0 and 11.9 47,781 3,127 6.5%
12.0 and 12.9 42,650 2,601 6.1%
13.0 and 13.9 37,929 2,097 5.5%
14.0 and 14.9 34,558 1,786 5.2%
15.0 and 19.9 131,289 5,699 4.3%
20.0 and 29.9 161,552 4,922 3.0%
30.0 and 39.9 94,676 1,696 1.8%
40.0 and 49.9 60,113 839 1.4%
50.0 and 59.9 40,150 391 1.0%
60.0 and 99.9 66,946 393 0.6%
100 & Greater 15,977 40 0.3%


As you can see - even money shots are always going to win at a higher percentage than 2/1 shots, 2/1 shots are always going to win at a higher percentage than 3/1 shots, 3/1 shots are always going to win at a higher clip than 4/1 shots and on and on.

Ok, so let's change Obama's name to Wait A While and pretend he's a horse. Let's change McCain's name to Black Mamba and pretend he's a horse. They are going to have a match race and the betting odds will reflect a big takeout reduction.

Wait A While with jockey Joe Bravo up is the early favorite. Black Mamba with a jockey TBA is the underdog at 7/5 odds.

Ok, Now, it is being announced that Shannon Uske has been named as the jockey for Black Mamba.

Subsequently, the odds tail up, Black Mamba is 8/5 after a few hours. 9/5 the next day, and finally drifts up to 2/1 odds.

Now, did the naming of Shannon Uske to ride Black Mamba increase the chances of victory? Clearly not.

Now, if you think Black Mamba is just plain better than Wait A While regardless of jockey, you are thrilled because you've got yourself a better price.

McCain is obviously not trying to cash a bet. He took Palin because he thought she would give him the best chance to win. The offshore betting lines and exchange markets are a better overall indicator of probability than anything else.

McCain simply took a gamble and it has backfired on him. Had he been able to move from the 7/5-to-3/2 range into the even money-to-6/5 range with his VP pick - I would have called it a brilliant move on his part even though I personally don't like Palin at all.

holy sh*t doug

So what does all this mean with regards to the odds that little Caylee is still alive?

I'm still stunned that people here actually watch the vice presidential debate or think it will have any bearing on the race.

Doug....called me stupid and slow, but just how are offshore betting odds and exchanges markets indicative of how the American people are gonna vote come Nov?

If I could get over 2/1 that McCain/Palin will win come Nov, I'd be quite happy with it.

Yeah, they were all over Hillary in the ESPN preseason poll...oops sorry Doug...

I am trolling you?
I thought I posted an opinion and you rejected it based on
betting odds which I totally understand, but you did not
prove anything about the odds with Romney, which was
the candidate I had made the comparison with.

And again, the exchange markets...?
Relevance?

I think there are a large number of white democrats that won't vote for Obama for an undisclosed reason and overlooking this reason is giving the american people the benefit of the doubt. Don't be foolish.

Well, disclose this reason please

It ain't HC

and I think he's right

I think the word white has something to do with it.

Obama is going to get a whole lot of the "kids" voting
in record numbers.

www.ehorsex.com

Right now you can get over $3,000 worth of action on John McCain winning the presidentcy at 2/1 odds.

They are only offering you $1,300 worth of action on Obama winning and at odds of slightly less than 1/2 favortisim.

I think McCain is sucker bait at 2/1 - I'd hold out for a bigger price if I were you.

im guessing Hillary Clinton.

HC

Thanks for the link.

But help me out please. How are those two things indicative of how people are gonna vote? I guess Im not seeing the relevance here.

If I might.

I think he is assuming the betting public that would take on this sort of political wager will be a good indicator of how people are going to vote. I dont find this unreasonable.

I would like to learn about the exchange market theory though...

But what % of that money is being wagered by Americans? I would think there has to be a huge margin of error based on the amount of money coming in from overseas.

I would agree.
But they may be betting based on polls they feel are reliable at this point in the race.

The same as how the odds of a horse race are indicative of how the horses will finish.

The same as how the odds on a boxing match are indicative of how the outcome of the fight will be.

The same as how the money line of a football game is indicative of who will win the game.

Why exactly did the betting go the way it has since Palin was named McCain's VP choice? How the hell would I know. However, people who think that she has made this a much tighter race are out of their mind. That much is clear.

Im not trying to be a pain in the ass...but don't you think its harder to put faith in those type odds when the people that will be doing the voting (american citizens) have their money in the same "pool" as everyone else world? I could see if the offshore betting site had a seperate pool for american citizens and based their odds upon that. Those odds are reflective of how people worldwide feel who will win. Fortunately for us, people throughout the world don't vote to determine our president.

You dont know this at all.

Again, you dont have the odds if McCain chose Romney.
Is it possible McCain would take a dive no matter who he chose?
I say hell yes its possible.

Very interesting.
And this is what I was basically thinking.
Imo they are giving way too much credit to those people have lots of money actually
understanding what they are doing with it. They are gambling like any other market,
only this type of gambling is very volatile and might be ridden with thrill seekers.

I thought you were typing about the exchange rate of the dollar or something
on the other topic.
My bad.

I would expect the vast majority of the money wagered is being done so by Americans.

No, in my opinion it's not possible.

Had McCain selected Romney - as expected - I don't think the market and betting lines would have moved a penny.

The markets and lines have been actively trending towards Obama since the morning it was announced McCain took Palin.

What you don't know is why such a move.

Most likely it's just a sustained betting overreaction to an unexpected and seemingly bad choice.

If it keeps moving and moving and moving - at that point you would start to smell a rat.

Palin went to the University of Idaho in the 80's... perhaps there are very compromising pictures of her that were laying around in someone's basement that are on the verge of being made public.

There are rumors that her supposed 5th kid was really her 17-year-old daughters kid. The daughter was taken out of school for several months with mono while Palin announced she was 7 months pregnant despite not showing. She took an 8 hour flight to Alaska after saying her water broke. Maybe there is something to the rumor.

There are reports that someone with the Obama team who does opposition research went through the archives of the Valley Frontiersman, Palin's hometown newspaper, and were the first ones to do so - meaning no one with McCain did. It might be possible they found something very compromising and are holding it.

She is under investigation in Alaska for abuse of power. Perhaps there is more to that story.

The snot thickens.

I thought for sure this time we would see no Clinton nor Bush on either ticket.


Perhaps the worst job of selecting a running mate since Stella Walsh made the relay team.


I may not even bother this time around.

Could it be possible the Reps. don't want to win??



Have stranger things happened?

How should we know?

OMG, we're now referring to the odds on betting exchanges as having some meaning? novices.

Nope. The latest reports (depending on who you believe) make it seem like it was a hasty decision and she was vetted for a matter of days.....

Palin in bed in t-shirt that boasts she's not flat chested:

http://images.huffingtonpost.com/gen/36715/original.jpg

Romney would have doomed them imo.
Sure loss.

Obama has a team that is as ruthless as any Republican
team. Obama learned a big lesson on how and when to
play hardball when he was first elected to an office.

Palin haters..don't get to excited. None of the polls out have been taken since she was selected.

But this one is the lastest and it reflects the great impact of Joe..

http://www.allheadlinenews.com/articles/7012063001

"AHN" is a trusted and respected media source read the world over. George W. Bush doesnt make a move until he gets his daily fix of AHN.