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-   -   2015: American Pharoah becomes 12th Triple Crown winner (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=56457)

cakes44 04-27-2015 07:15 PM
Oaks/Derby double... Stellar Wind-AP.

That is all.

Scav 04-27-2015 07:47 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by saratogadew (Post 1024280)
My early Oaks/Derby Double selection:

Condo Commando
By the Moon
Stellar Wind
Lovely Maria
West Coast Belle

OVER

American Pharoah
Mubtaahij
Firing Line
Stanford
Far Right

$4.00 Double
100.
Not to be rude, but are you really gonna play that? I mean, if it comes up Wind / AP, you are looking at getting 40$ or 50$ back on $4

RHT2004 04-27-2015 08:46 PM
Anyone know if they have the 2 day pick 3 this year?

Kitan 04-27-2015 08:53 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RHT2004 (Post 1024314)
Anyone know if they have the 2 day pick 3 this year?
http://www.churchilldowns.com/racing...mes-wager-menu

Yes.

-BT- 04-28-2015 11:06 AM
http://www.washingtonpost.com/sports...9dd_story.html

had no clue Shah was a local boy....Vienna, VA

-bt-

munster705 04-28-2015 11:11 AM
Thoughts on Firing Line? I am leaning towards him with 5 days to post.....love the preps....ran right with the favorite in here and it sounds like they are training him to rate off the pace

Thunder Gulch 04-28-2015 02:17 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Scav (Post 1024313)
Not to be rude, but are you really gonna play that? I mean, if it comes up Wind / AP, you are looking at getting 40$ or 50$ back on $4
Not even that. Last year the chalk P3 paid $4.25 per $50c. Everyone had those 3 in their wheels. I won and lost money. The double was $5.70 per $1

Rudeboyelvis 04-28-2015 05:59 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by munster705 (Post 1024368)
Thoughts on Firing Line? I am leaning towards him with 5 days to post.....love the preps....ran right with the favorite in here and it sounds like they are training him to rate off the pace
He's in my top 3, at the moment

I'd love to see odds on a prop bet that he'd finish ahead of Dortmund, which I believe can very well happen.

Rudeboyelvis 04-28-2015 06:03 PM
Great up to date workout recap from the Courier Journal:

http://www.courier-journal.com/story...ates/26363729/

Kasept 04-28-2015 07:11 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis (Post 1024436)
Great up to date workout recap from the Courier Journal:

http://www.courier-journal.com/story...ates/26363729/
That's the daily notebook from the Communications Office. Available at kentuckyderby.com without the hoopjumping req'd at the C-J:

http://www.kentuckyderby.com/

http://www.kentuckyderby.com/news/20...-draws-field-1

Darren Rogers Communications Dept. twitter feed with links to all the press releases: https://twitter.com/DerbyMedia

Dunbar 04-29-2015 10:58 AM
Tale of The Verve was entered in the Ky Derby and is now 2nd on the bubble:

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-raci...d-for-ky-derby

A horse with 0 points might make it in.


--Dunbar

Dunbar 04-30-2015 08:46 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dunbar (Post 1024081)
I'm failing to see what, if anything, separates Am Pharoah and Dortmund by so much over Upstart and Materiality. I get it that Materiality has only had 3 races. But those races were not cakewalks. His (and to a lesser extent Upstart's) last-race BSF's are significantly superior to AP's and Dortmund's. And I get that AP was wound down late in the Ark Derby, but not IMO to a degree that would have flipped the BSF order.

At this point I'm thinking that Am Pharoah and Dortmund will both be significantly overbet. Carpe Diem will be wildly overbet. There should be a lot of value in several of the other horses.

--Dunbar
FWIW, I'm less confident now that Dortmund will be "significantly overbet". With post positions considered, and most of Dortmund's toughest competition drawing poorly, I'd make Dortmund a 9-2 fav in a no-vig line. So, if he goes off at 4-1 or higher, I wouldn't think that's "overbet".

--Dunbar

pmayjr 05-04-2015 12:31 AM
Any word on El Kabeir?

Kasept 05-04-2015 04:47 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by pmayjr (Post 1025637)
Any word on El Kabeir?
He'll be fine but no Preakness. Issue was a quarter crack on the inside of the hoof. Was with Terranova before Derby as it happens and he said he'll concentrate on down the road opportunities. Nothing set as target yet. He was disappointed but not heartbroken. Just hopes he gets back with another 3yo.

Kasept 05-04-2015 05:26 AM
5/9/15 (BEL): Peter Pan

Madefromlucky (Pletcher)
Two Weeks Off (Pletcher)
Stanford (Pletcher)


5/16/15 (PIM): Preakness Stakes

American Pharoah (Baffert/V. Espinoza)
Firing Line (S. Callaghan/Stevens)
Dortmund (Baffert/M. Garcia)
International Star (Maker/Mena)
Divining Rod (Delacour)

Danzig Moon (Casse/Leparoux)
Materiality (Pletcher)
Carpe Diem (Pletcher)
Competitive Edge (Pletcher)
Bodhisattva (Corrales)


6/6/15 (BEL): Belmont Stakes

Keen Ice (Romans)
Mubtaahij (de Kock)

ateamstupid 05-04-2015 11:14 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kasept (Post 1025644)
Materiality (Pletcher)
Two Weeks Off (Pletcher)
I hope at least one of these two runs.

pointman 05-04-2015 11:19 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ateamstupid (Post 1025694)
I hope at least one of these two runs.
I would love to see Materiality run back, with a clean trip he is a huge threat in the Preakness.

ateamstupid 05-04-2015 11:21 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by pointman (Post 1025695)
I would love to see Materiality run back, with a clean trip he is a huge threat in the Preakness.
He'd be on all my tickets. I think TWO has a lot of potential too.

knickslions2 05-04-2015 11:54 AM
I think Stanford plays a huge role in the Preakness if he goes. No way he even comes close to winning but changes everything from a pace projection. Two weeks off is very interesting

Rudeboyelvis 05-04-2015 11:59 AM
Pat Cummings mentioning on Twitter that Mubtaahij is pointing to Belmont


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