Thanks all for the kind words, I appreciate it very much.

Some of you might be wondering why I didn't take the 2-5 Baffert maiden Wolf Man Rocket that was the obvious pick of the day, if I could find a good alternative to the big favorite I always tried to do so, as if they run out you make big moves on the leaderboard. After all there are at least 24 different correct answers every day.

A friend at work who has been following along with me asked if I considered taking the day off Sunday, and the answer is no, I'm happy with the pick I made, it just didn't work out. I had a 2-1 shot that had a clear lead in a 6-horse field at Santa Anita, those will usually yield a good result, plus the horse fit the profile of horses that I have picked with great success, E-E/P horses in dirt sprints with an outside post. It just happened this one didn't wasn't successful.

That was an amazing run. Congrats!

I think your strategy of looking for an alternative to the big fav is solid in the early parts of the tournament, or if you're trailing. But once you've got a big lead, it makes more sense to me to simply take the horse you think has the best chance. Force those behind you to pick the 2nd best horse of the day in hopes of gaining on you.

That said, I think you've got a great chance of winning the thing. Nice work!

--Dunbar

I was hoping you would show up in here, as DTs only actual Showvivor winner, I was anxious for your feedback.

Obviously I agree that you have to play favorites in order to get any kind of streak going, as so far I have picked 26 winners and the longest priced one is only $5.20, so it's not like I'm looking for longshots, or even decent priced contenders, to use. I think the longest priced horse so far has been either 7-2 or 4-1, and that was mainly at the beginning when I didn't take it as seriously.

I went back and looked at the thread where you won, great job btw, and the primary difference between us is how important you view field size to be. To me, if there's a 3-5 shot in a 10 horse field, where half the field is 20-1 or higher and is just going to struggle at the back of the pack anyway, that horse is as likely to come in as a 3-5 shot in a 5 or 6 horse field, where the other contenders are generally more evenly matched, plus the horse in the short field is likely to draw far more picks.

I think I have a good shot too, basically need one more "sure thing" horse to miss, and then it's a tall mountain to get to 43 with only 60 days left.

My comment was limited to the situation you found yourself in when you were making your final pick, about which you wrote:

If by "good alternative" you meant "just as likely to show", then I agree with your reasoning. But if you meant "almost as likely to show", then I think it was a mistake for someone in the position you were in, namely with a lead.


It may be true that a 3-5 horse in a 5 or 6 horse field has the same chance to win as a 3-5 horse in a 10-horse field, but I would be surprised if it doesn't have a better chance to show. So many more things can go wrong in a 10-horse field. And even if something goes wrong in a 5-horse field, finishing ahead of just 2 other horses is easier than finishing ahead of 7 other horses. I'll admit, though, that I don't have data to support that contention.

I was trying to get a handle on your chances. What do you think is a reasonable figure for the chance the best bet of the day is successful? 90%? 85%? 80%?

I wouldn't be surprised (despite no data in front of me to support it!) if big favs in 6-horse races finish in the money 90% of the time. If those chasing you on the leaderboard can find enough 90% horses, then at least one of them is likely to catch you.

If they can only find horses with an average 85% chance to show, then you're a solid fave to win the tournament. And if they only have an average 80% chance to show on each of their picks, then you're a shoo-in.

Anyway, good luck!

--Dunbar

Looks like you picked up another win, ranger? You're trailing "sgtennis" by just 2, 30-28, in "most wins". That's a cool position to be in, because it puts pressure on him/her to keep picking. And he's your biggest threat in the show streak, at 27-in-a-row. He can't be too choosy (skip days) in his show picks if he wants to hang on to his lead in wins.

--Dunbar

Oops, didn't realize that there are 3 players ahead of sgtennis's 30 wins.

--Dunbar

I was going to post that but couldn't get the one wifi hotspot in town to work earlier, so waited until I got home.

Anyway, of course I have been watching my lead dwindle, but still have a 16 day lead. Races have been very formful lately at least as far as the top pick of the day finishing in the top 3. For whatever reason sgtennis didn't make a pick yesterday, which I suspect is good news for me because the big favorite of the day won easily. I truly think (and have for some time) that he is the top threat to beat me, as he has made a successful pick in 41 of his last 42 picks, only missing with The Gomper on Jan. 30, or at least that is what I suspect.

Still only 5 behind the leader in the wins contest so I will keep playing it straight and try to get that, plus I could still get to 58 in a row on the show streak if I run the table from here on out (yeah, right.)

I'm finding the Showvivor races to be pretty interesting to follow.

ranger5830's lead over sgtennis has been cut to 12. But sgtennis is also in 3rd place in the "Most Wins" race, trailing the leader by just 3 wins. So sgtennis has a lot of incentive to make a pick every day, which should work to ranger's benefit.

Meanwhile, johnnyrotten, who finished in the 7-player Showvivor photo finish with me in 2012, is just 1 behind the leader in the "Most Places" category.

--Dunbar

As a result of yesterdays cancellation, wonder who's happy and who's not..

Why was it cancelled? I noticed that the pick I made was not on my list of picks and that they didn't update the leaderboard, but I didn't know the whole contest day was cancelled.

I of course would like all the remaining days to be cancelled and have the contest end right now. :)

You should have received the email...they said they had a problem and some couldn't get picks in so they cancelled...GL on your quest, how many racing days left?..I'm still trying to catch an old friend with biggest win payoff, not much chance..

126 jimmybee 12 / 4 4 / 0 13 7 $176.20

By my count, still 50 racing days left (13 4-day weeks but no racing Thu-Fri Apr 23-24 for some reason.) Some of the top players got knocked off yesterday, including someone who had 26 in a row, but still really need the top pick of the day to fail sometime soon, I don't think the top pick has run out of the money since Appealing Tale back on 2/20.

I found the email that Santa Anita sent me, it had been sent to my junk mail folder and that was why I didn't see it, I thought they had just forgotten to update the leaderboard.

Your friend has a good chance, the tiebreak (as I'm sure he well knows) for highest win price is the longest show streak, and he's only one behind, and well clear of the other three tied players. So he has to play it straight and hope there are no $177-up winners. I'm right on his tail in 2645th place so watch out. :)

sgtennis's relentless pursuit continues, and he/she is now just 6 show picks behind ranger5830's 43-in-a-row. sgtennis's last 9 picks have finished 1st, putting him in 2nd place in "Win Streak", but still 4 behind the leader who has a still active 13-in-a-row. And sgtennis is very much in contention in Most Wins, tied for 2nd just 3 back of the leader.

--Dunbar

It has indeed been an interesting couple weeks, as sgtennis continues his relentless march toward the lead. By my count, he has now been correct in 51 of his last 52 picks, missing only with The Gomper on Jan 30. When I first saw the handle I thought it was Sgt. Ennis, however the sgtennis twitter handle is held by someone named Simon who is a "tennis consultant." Regardless, his performance has been excellent and he would be a worthy winner if it turned out that way, but obviously I am hopeful he stumbles sometime in the next six picks.

A week ago Thursday was the day I had been waiting for for sometime, as all but one of the top seven favorites finished off the board, including a 1/2 shot in a five-horse field. Going into that day, there were 31 players with a streak of 20 in a row, after that day there were only five. The top 3 players left were all people who didn't make a selection that day (including Sgtennis, much to my dismay.)

There are now only 42 racing days left (11 weeks but no racing April 23-24) which means that anyone who misses from now on will be mathematically eliminated. And there are only 10 people who have an active streak of 16 in a row or more, and only three with 26 or more. So there's still hope, but the next two weeks will be telling.

Still so interesting! sgtennis is 4 behind ranger, but has become extremely selective and has not made a pick in several days. He's basically giving up the chance he had to take home "Most Wins" in order to concentrate completely on the show streak.

btw, that's a nice new 10-race streak you're riding, ranger.

--Dunbar

Thanks Dunbar.

You may have noticed that this streak kind of came out of nowhere, that's because on 4-18 I picked a horse in race 3 that was scratched, so they were supposed to give me the starting favorite (who won) but instead gave me the close second choice (who was off the board.) The favorite was the same odds (2.1-1) but had about $100 more bet to win. An email to Santa Anita did eventually clear this up and that's how I went from 1 to 9 in a row in one shot.

I can still mathematically improve on my 43 in a row if I don't miss for the rest of the meeting (after another successful pick today to get to 11) but my focus has shifted to trying to get the most places, that's where I feel I have the best shot (5 behind going into today) to be on top. If I fall further behind I will start going for the huge longshot highest payout category as the tiebreak is longest show streak, and that obviously works in my favor.

Today's top pick finished off the board so it will be interesting to see if sgtennis came out of hiding today and maybe picked that one. Anybody who misses from now on is mathematically eliminated from contention for the longest show streak.

For the first time since January 24, I am no longer in first place in the showvivor contest as sgtennis has finally caught me at 43 picks in a row. We are still tied but he has the tie-break with 2 more wins than me. After the next racing day, he will probably have sole possession of first place and will be virtually assured of winning since he has a 21 day lead over the next best active streak with only 28 days left.

While I am obviously disappointed to not win, I have learned alot if I ever find myself in a similar situation, mainly being able to skip a day if the races look too tough. So thanks again for the support and hopefully we can get it right if they have the same contest during the autumn meet.

Your run was remarkable and I'm sorry you probably won't get any prize money for it. I found the competition gripping, even as a spectator, and want to be part of the next one.

Can you imagine the tension sgtennis must have been feeling after he got to about #38? He skipped so many days of racing. How about when he was one behind you at 42? It must have been really hard for him to pull the trigger on pick #43.

I hope he misses with #44 and you can race to the wire for the tiebreaker.

Congrats again on your own impressive streak.

--Dunbar

An unexpected chance at victory
 

Astoundingly and as a complete surprise, sgtennis' quest for showvivor glory and riches has (at least temporarily) hit a snag, as his attempt to pick a 44th straight show horse came up short as his (presumed) pick, heavy favorite Wandering Heart in race 1, could only manage a fourth place finish in a field of five, thereby dashing his hopes for wrapping up the title, as well as costing the bridgejumping community about $129,722.

So, as far as the contest is concerned, I have an unexpected second chance at winning, as we somehow are going to wind up tied at 43 in a row. There are only two players left with any real hope of beating that number, one has 22 in a row and one has 21. There are three players at 16 in a row who could conceivably get to 43, but two of them are hopelessly far behind in the tiebreak, they have 27, 19, and 14 wins respectively. The player with 14 actually cannot win under any circumstance. I am two wins behind, 41 to 39, but that can certainly be made up with still 27 race days left, especially since second tiebreak is most places, and I have a comfortable lead there, 22 to 17.

It's a shame someone has to lose, as it was a great accomplishment to get to 43, as nobody else even got above 31 in a row. I was thinking about trying to reach out to sgtennis and see if he wants to split the money, maybe give him a little extra since he has the tiebreak lead, do you think that would be a good idea? If he is a tennis consultant, he must be reputable and a man of good character, and I would certainly never stiff anyone on a bet. I don't know if that is against the rules or somehow considered collusion or something. Anyway, wish me luck!

Wow! That's amazing! (I didn't see it until just now.) Pretty funny, since I'd written on 5/12, "I hope he misses with #44 and you can race to the wire for the tiebreaker."

I got part way through your post and was thinking, "they should split the prize, with sgtennis getting a bigger share." Then I got to where you were thinking along the same lines.

I doubt splitting is against the rules. It's pretty common in various kinds of tournament play. It's what I would do in your situation. As you said, it's a shame either of you has to lose.

I see you're only 1 behind now. Given the fact that you've got the lead in 2nd tiebreaker, the split should be pretty close to 50-50.

How would you reach out to him/her, though? email address aren't shown in the contest, are they? Ah, I see he has a twitter acct. Which leads to email and phone. Well, I guess I'd read through the Showvivor rules to make sure it's okay, then call him up!

Anyway, good luck down the stretch.

--Dunbar