Derby Trail Forums

Derby Trail Forums (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/index.php)
-   The Paddock (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/forumdisplay.php?f=2)
-   -   Roger Stein on Beyer on Zenyatta (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=39579)

Rupert Pupkin 11-17-2010 04:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dahoss (Post 724526)
With all due respect DrugS, Joanied at PA could tell from a still picture that Zenyatta wasn't happy early. The truly enlightened can pick up on stuff like that.

Are you saying that horsemen can't tell when a horse isn't travelling well?

Dahoss 11-17-2010 04:50 PM

The under felt like a bigger longshot than that.

She made up for it by saying she hopes Frankel the horse comes over next year to run in the stakes race (San Gorgonio) that they renamed for Bobby Frankel. He'll need a sex change to be eligible but they are doing amazing things with medicine nowadays, so we'll see.

Rupert Pupkin 11-17-2010 04:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS (Post 724521)
For a guy with an IQ well over 70 - you are truly hopeless.

No, Zenyatta would have not been 37 lengths back in that allowance race because Smith wouldn't have allowed her to race that far back. She would have been a long, long way back though.




Either you're confusing Zenyatta with Life At Ten in the Ladies Classic - or you're watching Zenyatta get outrun by much faster horses than her.




OK Cannon Shell or any trainer out there - did she look comfortable while she was getting outsprinted by MUCH faster horses in a race where the pace totally collapsed?

Also, did Ice Box and Make Music For Me look comfortable in the Kentucky Derby when they closed from 24 lengths and 28 lengths back to finish 2nd and 4th in a similar pace meltdown?

How do you explain her last race on dirt, the race at Oaklawn? Do you claim that track was much faster than Churchill? They ran the first 3 furlongs in :36, give or take 1/5th of a second. Zenyatta was 8 lenghts back. But when they run :35 at Churchill (mainly on a straightaway), she is 20 lengths back.

Dahoss 11-17-2010 04:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin (Post 724532)
Are you saying that horsemen can't tell when a horse isn't travelling well?

Seriously?

No, I'm saying an idiot on the internet can't tell if a horse is happy or not by a still picture.

Rupert Pupkin 11-17-2010 04:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dahoss (Post 724536)
Seriously?

No, I'm saying an idiot on the internet can't tell if a horse is happy or not by a still picture.

In the case of the BC Classic, we have more than a still picture.

Dahoss 11-17-2010 05:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin (Post 724539)
In the case of the BC Classic, we have more than a still picture.

Did you read the post you responded to at all? I'm talking about a still picture and someone saying she looked unhappy in the picture. That's it.

It's been over a week now. Time to get over it.

RolloTomasi 11-17-2010 05:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin (Post 724530)
There are plenty of horses that take a while to get warmed up. They're a little stiff when they first come on the track but after they warm up for a while, they look ok. As you said, she didn't warm up. That is probably why she looked so stiff and sluggish in the early stages of the race. This, along with the dirt in her face, is why she was 20 lengths back after 3 furlongs instead of 14 lengths back.

So why was the stalker Etched, who had never been more than 2 lengths off the pace in any previous start, 8 lengths from the lead in the early stages despite this being his first start beyond 9f?

Zenyatta was about 12-15 lengths behind him early.

Seems more likely that the "out of the ordinary" was going on up front, not at the rear.

Rupert Pupkin 11-17-2010 05:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi (Post 724543)
So why was the stalker Etched, who had never been more than 2 lengths off the pace in any previous start, 8 lengths from the lead in the early stages despite this being his first start beyond 9f?

Zenyatta was about 12-15 lengths behind him early.

Seems more likely that the "out of the ordinary" was going on up front, not at the rear.

Etched was only 4 lengths back after a quarter mile. He was about 5 lengths back after 3 furlongs. It looked like he was in a good spot. I think Alan Garcia saw that you had 4 horses going at a pretty good clip up front, so he figured he would stay in the clear in 5th.

Just to be clear about my position with regards to Zenyatta, I don't think she was that much further back after a half-mile than she should have been or than I would have expected. She was maybe 2-3 lengths further back than I would have expected, but that's about it. That wasn't what really hurt her. What really hurt her was being 20 lengths back after 3 furlongs. That hurt her because Mike Smith had to use her to get her back in the race. That really hurt her because she ended up having to sprint the final 7 furlongs of the race. To say that's hard to do is an understatement.

Antitrust32 11-17-2010 05:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NTamm1215 (Post 724204)
You're making a comparison using horses with little to no or horrible dirt form. Would Zenyatta dispose of Rinterval on dirt? Of course she would because Rinterval likely wouldn't take to dirt. She's never tried it.

Like Dahoss said, throw Zenyatta into a dirt race against a dirt horse like Hystericalady, or Life at Ten in this year's Del Cap where she walked on the lead, and it's going to be dicey in the last quarter.

The song about Zenyatta being better on dirt has been sung. Unfortunately her connections disagreed or else they might have tried her more on it.

Would Zenyatta have beaten Icon Project on the dirt in some of those races last year?

NTamm1215 11-17-2010 05:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Antitrust32 (Post 724550)
Would Zenyatta have beaten Icon Project on the dirt in some of those races last year?

Not in the Personal Ensign in my opinion. She would have never run against her in the New York Stakes obviously because it was scheduled for turf and was run over a quagmire but it would have taken a huge effort to beat her that day at Saratoga.

RolloTomasi 11-17-2010 05:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin (Post 724549)
That hurt her because Mike Smith had to use her to get her back in the race. That really hurt her because she ended up having to sprint the final 7 furlongs of the race. To say that's hard to do is an understatement.

It seemed to me that two races were taking place at once. Maybe in the initial stages Zenyatta got left for dead (she broke a bit flat anyways), but once the other jocks realized the ridiculous duel going on up front, they all seemed to backed off. If they did purposefully back off (and you said yourself that Etched settled further back after 3 furlongs), then the second flight simply came back to Zenyatta, as opposed to her sprinting the final 7f in some herculean effort.

Essentially, the first 4 were on their own and ultimately immaterial, as they were swallowed up immediately without resistance. Etched was the first to hit the front and make a serious move, and Zenyatta was never more than 14 lengths behind him early and easily within striking distance of him throughout the backstretch.

Rupert Pupkin 11-17-2010 05:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi (Post 724559)
It seemed to me that two races were taking place at once. Maybe in the initial stages Zenyatta got left for dead (she broke a bit flat anyways), but once the other jocks realized the ridiculous duel going on up front, they all seemed to backed off. If they did purposefully back off (and you said yourself that Etched settled further back after 3 furlongs), then the second flight simply came back to Zenyatta, as opposed to her sprinting the final 7f in some herculean effort.

Essentially, the first 4 were on their own and ultimately immaterial, as they were swallowed up immediately without resistance. Etched was the first to hit the front and make a serious move, and Zenyatta was never more than 14 lengths behind him early and easily within striking distance of him throughout the backstretch.

Zenyatta did break flat-footed but that's not unusual for her. She pretty much always breaks like that.

With regard to whether she was sprinting home or the others were coming back to her, it was clearly a combination of both. The front runners totally collapsed. There's no doubt about that. But Zenyatta did sprint home. If you do the math, she ran her final 7 furlongs in about 1:23 1/5. That is spectacular.

Rupert Pupkin 11-18-2010 04:43 AM

I assume you guys know that Mike Smith admitted that he contemplated pulling Zenyatta up early in the race. I think he knows the horse pretty well. If she felt like her normal self and was travelling fine, do you think he would have been thinking about pulling her up?

The Indomitable DrugS 11-18-2010 06:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin (Post 724729)
I assume you guys know that Mike Smith admitted that he contemplated pulling Zenyatta up early in the race. I think he knows the horse pretty well. If she felt like her normal self and was travelling fine, do you think he would have been thinking about pulling her up?

Just like Joel Rosario considered pulling up Make Music For Me after he was 20th and 28 lengths behind after just a quarter mile in the Kentucky Derby...before he closed to finish 4th and will now go down in history as the single worst horse to ever make a Superfecta ticket in the KY Derby.




Ice Box was 24 back - I'm shocked Lezcano didn't come out and say he almost pulled him up. If only a Horse of the Year vote was on the line for Ice Box and Make Music For Me might we be treated to such stupidity.

You really are trying to be a wet brained tard. It would be a lot more amusing if you were some deranged clueless pretty poney woman sprinkling each one of your posts with about 7 emotocons.

I assume you know that I contemplated playing a $100 straight Pick 6 of Chamberlain Bridge - Uncle Mo - Goldikova - Dakota Phone - Dangerous Midge - Blame ... I think this proves that I should win an eclipse award for Handicapper of the Year.

the_fat_man 11-18-2010 09:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS (Post 724743)
I assume you know that I contemplated playing a $100 straight Pick 6 of Chamberlain Bridge - Uncle Mo - Goldikova - Dakota Phone - Dangerous Midge - Blame ... I think this proves that I should win an eclipse award for Handicapper of the Year.

Instead, however, you decided to put Quality Road on top (with Haynesfield as your 2nd choice). That was a very nice selection.:rolleyes: There's MUCH to learn from you. ha ha ha

Where do you find the nuts? How does anyone not fall down laughing whenever you post anything, especially when you criticize others, after that FIASCO?

The Indomitable DrugS 11-18-2010 09:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the_fat_man (Post 724758)
Instead, however, you decided to put Quality Road on top (with Haynesfield as your 2nd choice). That was a very nice selection.:rolleyes: There's MUCH to learn from you. ha ha ha

Where do you find the nuts? How does anyone not fall down laughing whenever you post anything, especially when you criticize others, after that FIASCO?

Blame was my 2nd choice... but you know that already you ankle biting stalker. Oh boy, my top pick in a race put in a non-effort at 7/1 odds.

Keep pretending like every bet you've ever made is a winning one - and that you actually make money betting.

How does it feel to be the message board equivalent of Rich Kotite?


The Indomitable DrugS 11-18-2010 09:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin (Post 724562)
If you do the math, she ran her final 7 furlongs in about 1:23 1/5.

Math obviously isn't your strong suit.

Indian Charlie 11-18-2010 09:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin (Post 724729)
I assume you guys know that Mike Smith admitted that he contemplated pulling Zenyatta up early in the race. I think he knows the horse pretty well. If she felt like her normal self and was travelling fine, do you think he would have been thinking about pulling her up?

Is this the same Mike Smith who is generally regarded as being pretty simple minded?

And thinks Z is the greatest horse that ever was, or ever will be?

santana 11-18-2010 09:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the_fat_man (Post 724758)
Instead, however, you decided to put Quality Road on top (with Haynesfield as your 2nd choice). That was a very nice selection.:rolleyes: There's MUCH to learn from you. ha ha ha

Where do you find the nuts? How does anyone not fall down laughing whenever you post anything, especially when you criticize others, after that FIASCO?


I have NO IDEA how old you are Fartman, but it is 1/5 that Drugs knows way more than you. The only thing i would say against his Classic selection was putting Haynesfield 2nd...just his breeding alone would make him a auto toss for me.

Indian Charlie 11-18-2010 09:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS (Post 724743)

You really are trying to be a wet brained tard. It would be a lot more amusing if you were some deranged clueless pretty poney woman sprinkling each one of your posts with about 7 emotocons.

I think Rupert usually has one of the better opinions on here. It never ceases to amaze me what Zenyattardism does to people!

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS (Post 724743)
I assume you know that I contemplated playing a $100 straight Pick 6 of Chamberlain Bridge - Uncle Mo - Goldikova - Dakota Phone - Dangerous Midge - Blame ... I think this proves that I should win an eclipse award for Handicapper of the Year.

Are you freakin nuts? Would you really leave off Zenyatta in the BCC? I bet you even if she runs second in that race, they will pay out the P6 to both the winner and her.


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 09:53 AM.

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.6.8
Copyright ©2000 - 2025, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.