I think this is the key point, it's a race at 1 1/2 and dare I say not too many breeders in America book their broodmares saying 'hey let's go out and breed a horse to win the Belmont'. I can see this race being condemned even before it has been run as a mediocre race. Perhaps I see it differently however to me I am not expecting a 3 yr old this early in his/her career to run 1 1/2 and beyer 105-110 carrying 126lbs. To me a realistic number is 98 - 100. Some horses will be stretching their stamina and my approach is not finding the fastest horse but one that can stay the longest, if you look at it that way that is a talent in itself which is appreciated certainly in Europe.

Hmmm...well you have a point. But isn't the Belmont traditionally different?

Sprinters/miler pedigrees can win the Kentucky Derby (Funny Cide, War Emblem, Smarty Jones, Big Brown), but they always seem to come up short in the Belmont to horses that were sired by more of a grinding type.

Tiznow was a grinding type of horse...AP Indy regularly won at classic distances and the Belmont...I don't remember what Jazil's sire did, but it seems that any Better Than Honour offspring will like a longer distance....Birdstone was by Grindstone who didn't win flashy, but he looked like the grinder type that could last forever....Sarava was by Wild Again who had won the BCC just like Tiznow.

But when you look at KD winners, like you said they don't necessarily come from long distance type families.

So maybe 10 furlongs is the limit for those sprinter/miler pedigree types, and 12 furlongs might be pushing it?

His mama is by Ap Indy and she won the ky oaks. His mama's mama is by Alydar.

His pedigree is fine for 12f. If he loses it won't be because of his genes.

That's true, I was only thinking of Unbridled's Song I guess.

Unfortunately the head on isn't very good so it doesn't capture the 2nd trouble point, but on Race Replays video at the 1:15 mark is the first point where Ocampo runs up on the heels almost of a tiring horse who's under pressure mid track. While that happens Rosier and Summer Bird get going on the outside getting the run on Flying Private when comparing trips. The 2nd point is at around 1:30 but since the Oaklawn head on video is horrendous, you can't see much.

Basically, the Pan Shot gives you a better view of how Ocampo runs up on Ziegfield who is stopping badly, forcing him to almost take up while Summer Bird commences his rally on the outside at the same time. Then, while Summer Bird has clear running on the outside, Ocampo has to wait and hold up Flying Private until he can get some running room. It's much better on the Pan Shot in terms of seeing the traffic issues that Flying Private had compared to Summer Bird. I realize Flying Private didn't kick a whole heck of a lot when he did get clear, but Lukas said in the article by Grening today that Flying Private is a long striding horse so that might explain why the trouble really hurt the colt. Just my opinion based on what I saw.

and of course most look to the dams side for stamina, the sire for speed-probably explains why sprinter/milers are generally more sought after in the breeding shed.

you will also want to compare the run Summer Bird made in the Derby from the blimp view and compare that to the run Flying Private made in the Preakness.
May as well figure it on paper as well.

It's a mistake to assume Flying Private's run was better because of the 102 Beyer. It's a judgement call you have to decide personally. Contrary to some, many?, I happen to think Summer Bird's run in the Derby was more impressive.

However, I really don't view either horse as a threat to run in the Belmont exacta.

You can't compare the two because the races unfolded on different tracks with different scenarios and so on. It's comparing apples to oranges. I am using the one race where the two of them ran against each other.

I am using the three fastest figure horses in the Belmont as those are the three who I think are the win contenders. Mine That Bird, Dunkirk, and Flying Private have run the fastest races and are the three that I think are win contenders.

Do you agree that the form of the Gulfstream Horses doesnt seem to be holding up?

Not even 1.

Something's wrong with this.

What? I don't like Dunkirk to win this race. I have not seen a horse win yet that ran at Gulfstream the weekend of the Florida Derby. I am anxiously awaiting the outcome of Nicanor's next race to base my final bet on.

Didn't Nicanor just break his maiden on grass at Delaware by 15 lengths.

-Big Drama ran in the Preakness. That was a pretty tall order (even though I loved him that day).

-This Ones for Phil ran only once since and he got a pretty bad trip and ran well to be 2nd behind a very impressive Mr Fantasy.

-Quality Road got injured and hasnt run once since.

-Nicanor broke his maiden winning by a pole.

I wouldnt rush to judgement on this group just yet.

Dunkirk beat Warriors Reward at GP, who came back to win an impressive Allowance race on Oaks day at Churchill.

Dunkirk beat Santana Six at GP, who finished a good second in a Stakes race at Monmouth last Saturday.

It's perfectly fine to not like Dunkirk. But to use "everyone at GP sucks" angle isn't going to get you very far.

Grade 1, $1 million Belmont Stakes


1
Chocolate Candy
J. Hollendorfer
G. Gomez
10-1

2
Dunkirk
T. Pletcher
J. Velazquez
4-1


3
Mr. Hot Stuff
E. Harty
E. Prado
15-1

4
Summer Bird
T. Ice
K. Desormeaux
12-1

5
Luv Gov
D.W. Lukas
M. Mena
20-1


6
Charitable Man
K. McLaughlin
A. Garcia
3-1

7
Mine That Bird
B. Woolley Jr.
C. Borel
2-1

8
Flying Private
D.W. Lukas
J. Leparoux
12-1


9
Miner's Escape
N. Zito
J. Lezcano
15-1


10
Brave Victory
N. Zito
R. Maragh
15-1

Thanks for posting these. I think the odds are pretty spot on. I do think Charitable Man and Mine that Bird will flip flop and Charitable man will be the post time favorite going off at about 9/5. Hes the talk of the town and the barn will be unloading on him.

listen your up in saratoga , i'm down here in mid-town , he may be the talk of the barn , but ,MTB is the talk of the town :eek: :eek:

I don't think there's any chance that any horse other than MTB is the favorite in this race. In fact, I think Eric Donovan's morning line of 2-1 is high.

NT

There's almost no chance that you're right - despite the amount of money the KMc barn usually bets.