Derby Trail Forums - Dunkirk -- 2 Questions

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Quote:

Originally Posted by mbahadur

For those of you that have access to DRF Plus, there is an excellent article today by James Quinn called Derby Contender Short List.

In the article, Mr. Quinn indicates that Quality Road has by far the best speed and pace figures (even much better than IWR). The article also compares Dunkirk's speed and pace figures to Big Brown and concludes that Dunkirk represents no match and is a poor comparison to Big Brown, who had a spectacular 2-year old race.

Also, Mr. Quinn indicates that Quality Road should be able to hold off Dunkirk again unless Dunkirk possesses a significant class edge based on her breeding.

Quality Road appears to be the most talented 3yo.

There were some questions going into the Florida Derby about whether or not Quality Road would like the 2-turn distance. His race was great, but unfortunately he didn't face any adversity, because his trip was so easy.
(His talent allowed the easy trip, so obviously it's hard to penalize him)
So in the Kentucky Derby, if Quality Road has trouble getting settled, or if he has to make an earlier run, it could change all of the types of things that his speed and pace figures forecast.
Dunkirk may be bred to want a little more ground than Quality Road, and in the Florida Derby he had to spot Quality Road a couple lengths in the difficulty of the trip. However he didn't look that strong at the finish.

We'll know all the answers after the Derby of course ;)

Quote:

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Is this supposed to make sense?

Below is what the article actually said about Dunkirk being able to beat Quality Road in their next race.

"Assuming the colt runs, Dunkirk will arrive at Churchill Downs on a flimsy foundation for winning the most viciously debated competition on the American calendar. Still, this $3.7 million son of Unbridled's Song is talented, and forced Quality Road to extend himself throughout the stretch of the Florida Derby. Quality Road should be expected to repulse the Pletcher stable star again, unless Dunkirk possesses a definite class edge. The putative superiority on class must be significant, not a mere edge. That's plausible, but unlikely."

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Huh? Class edge?

It means he's gotta be faster than Quality Road, which he will be, unless he isn't.

I think he'll be the so-called "wise guy" horse this year, because he ran against the bias at GP and still ran 2nd, and it was only his 3rd lifetime start, and all the so-called experts are all over him. In my opinion he'll be overbet like in the 6/1 to 8/1 range. Without any foundation I can't touch him on the win end for a few reasons...I don't think the pace in this derby will be very fast, and of course I mentioned his lack of foundation. Also, everyone is comparing him to Big Brown. The field Big Brown beat is nothing close to this year's crop. Big Brown would not be a standout this year. I think he'll be in the Derby and will do no better than 3rd or 4th.

Dunkirk was less than even money in his first go in a stakes against Quality Road (and others) who had just run a 113 Beyer in a very impressive FOY win. You can guarantee that Dunkirk-Pletcher- Gomez? will be overbet regardless of whether or not you think he can win.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch

He was actually 11-10 but I agree with what you're saying. In three starts the horse has been absolutely pummeled at the windows each time.

NT