The deal "places his value at $50 million".. which means Three Chimneys [may have] paid just $10 million for 20%.


They paid for a percentage of the horse to secure the rights to stand him at their farm after his racing career.

If you bred his book of mares to Cozar - he would be a very accomplished stallion.

Not certain what this means, but the 'elite' mares he received were, many of them, the wrong mares for this particular stallion. Just as Winning Colors was sent to stallions who made the most economic sense rather than to the stallions that would suit her best (and may have been totally non-commercial). An example - After Cee's Song produced 4 SWs including a Horse of the Year with Cee's Tizzy, proving this is a dynamite cross, a genetic goldmine, her owners' heirs sent her to Storm Cat repreatedly and got 2 minor winners, one SP, and one unraced. By most measures Storm Cat is a better stallion than Cee's Tizzy, BUT not for this particular mare.

Bernie?

He was a son of Cozzene who went 4-for-31 - earned no blacktype - and ran for a tag near the lower end of claiming levels at the end of his career. He's sired several winners at PID.

I would have to think mating Cee's Song with Cee's Tizzy was hardly some decision based upon any "dynamite cross" that had the look of a possible genetic goldmine - It probably had everything to do with the fact that the two horses raced for the same owners.

Storm Cat didn't get a piece of Cee's Song until she already had like 10 or 11 foals.

he said they were disappointments, not failures. i would agree with that assessment. considering the talent those horses possessed, and the books of mares they were sent, i would say they were definitely disappointments, altho they did manage to get a few good horses. but the same could be said about a great many sires, who occasionally catch lightening in a bottle.

I think it depends on what criteria you are looking at when you evaluate whether or not some sire is, or is not, a disappointment.

As a sire of racehorses Secretariat wasn't great, but he was pretty good.
As a sire of sires, he was useless.
As a broodmare sire, he was an absolutely huge success.

People could reasonably make the argument that Secretariat was a great sire by pointing to all of the Storm Cat and AP Indy blood in the breed today. Somebody else could also reasonably argue that no sire that completely failed in establishing a sire line should be called a great sire.
In some respects, both of those people would be right.

It would have been almost impossible for Big Red to not have been an excellent broodmare sire when you consider the amazing quality and depth of the mares he was bred to.

Even if they weren't hits on the track - they were royally bred on the bottom and in such large numbers - many had to pop with good runners when bred back to top stallions.

I believe the best way to judge a stallion is to compare their success in relation to the quality of the mares they are being bred to each year.

Sires who consistantly move their mares up will eventually make it to the top as stallions. Stallions that move up mares like Distorted Humor, Storm Cat, A. P. Indy, Indian Charlie, Street Cry, Put It Back, Mr. Greeley etc have risen up - while stallions like Point Given and Fusaichi Pegasus .. who have thrown a few very good horses but underperform their book - they will start to fall down the ladder.

Clearly you are correct in saying that the fact that he saw so many quality mares has a lot to do with his success as a broodmare sire. But I think you might be selling him a bit short in terms of just how good of a broodmare sire he actually turned out to be.

It isn't just that he sired terrific broodmares like Fantastic Ways, Six Crowns, Terlingua, Weekend Surprise (etc.) that then produced really good horses on the track. The fact that arguably the two most dominant American sires of the last decade were BOTH out of Secretariat mares is fairly remarkable.
I don't care how good the mares are that a sire sees, THAT sort of production couldn't really be expected.

I guess I'm trying to say that he certainly saw enough quality mares that it was very likely that he would be a very good broodmare sire.
But I think he turned out to be a great one.

You missed the point. Secretariat was not a very successful sire especially compared to expectations. If he was running today and was retired after the belmont (which is surely what would happen) he would go to stud with a 150k fee. Can you say with a straight face that he was anywhere close to that kind of sire? Sure things are different but now but he was a huge disappointment at stud. As was Affirmed. Same scenario as above. What would he have stood for after winning the TC in 2008? 100k easy. Knowing now what kind of sires they turned out to be would you say that was a good deal? My point is that because of racetrack success people are paying way too much for unproven sires, both in breeding and at the sales. And as shown by numerous superior racehorses that are not premium sires, that is a bad play.

I think they made a big mistake with the mares that they sent to Big Red in the first 5 years. He got the best mares that could go a classic distance of ground and that mixed with his ablity to run forever produced offspring that could go 1 1/2 miles and longer. Thats where they failed with Big Red. He needed to cover mares that would throw some speed to his distance. Just my view.

I hear ya.

However, all four of those broodmares you mentioned were out of dams who were stakes winners on the track and each mother of those broodmares above had produced another stakes winner when mated with a different stallion than Big Red.

I've never been a huge believer in the concept of broodmare sires - or sire of sires - or stuff like that.

Except when you look at AP Indy, Kingmambo, Smart Strike, Giants causeway, Seeking the gold, Awesome Again, El Prado and Dynaformer. Or most of the top proven sires in the US outside of Storm Cat, Unbridled Song and Distorted humor.

Plus your logic may be flawed as many of those types could have been ve
ry successful as milers especially Easy Goer and the Bid. There just isnt any reason to do so if you could win the bigger races going longer.

He got plenty of those.

He was given every chance to be the greatest stallion ever - trust me, they didn't fail him.

Easy Goer and The Bid weren't early speed sprinter/milers...that wasn't their best game.

I hope you aren't serious with the stallions you mentioned. They are all royally bred and were oustanding race horses.

* A. P. Indy is a half to Summer Squall and Honor Grades

* Kingmambo is out of Miesque

* Smart Strike is a Mr. Prospector half to hall of famer Dance Smartly

* Giant's Causeway is a Storm Cat out of a dam that ran a 120 Beyer

* Seeking The Gold is a half to Grade 1 winner from a great Phipps family

* Awesome Again is a half to champion Macho Uno from a super lightly raced race mare

* El Prado's dam won the 1K Guineas and he has many accomplish sibs

* Dynaformer's dam is a Grade 1 winning half to Darby Creek Road


My opinion was that if you take two horses who's pedigree and race record are similar in terms of quality and accomplishment - the one with the sharper early speed is significantly more likely to be a successful stallion than the closing sprinter or stalking distance horse type.

However, as long as 95% of the Grade 1 races are run between 7-to-12 furlongs - those royally bred stallions with great race records and outstanding books are going to always be the highest profile stallions.

Put It Back moves up his mares way more than most of those stallions you mentioned - but who wants to breed a good mare to a modestly bred one way sprinter who doesn't throw distance horses?

It is strictly a breeding rights deal and each deal takes on a life of it's own. The insurance amount has nothing to do with it. The amount of the insurance and the rumored "value" has no correlation, and if it's accurate, it's just coincidence.

Also, allegedly, Clay is not known for putting up large sums of his own money. The Smarty Jones deal was structured this way, and there was an "anchor" partner in the deal. As far as the breeding rights -- it could be anything -- "rights" to stand the horse, securing the horse, syndication, and so on. In this case, I would guess there might be an "anchor" partner who provides "bridge financing" until they can sell shares; although from what I hear, the talk of shares is not a hot topic at this point. Maybe that will change, maybe not. On the other hand, the dollars used to secure the horse could be more long term, until shares are sold, seasons, etc. Who knows how much money was used and paid.

Eric

well, thanks. very interesting stuff.

when i said 'are they basing it at 50 million' i really was asking about the press, as that's the only number they really have to go by, since three chimneys/ieah aren't really discussing details.

I know what their credentials are. But you said that Brilliant Speed was the number 1 stallion making quaity and i was just giving examples to the contrary. Many examples by the way.

Easy goer looked pretty good in the Gotham going a mile