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-   -   Place Vs. Fave/Long Exacta Running Tab (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=10605)

randallscott35 03-14-2007 09:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Grits
Randall, I think the 6th at Santa Anita is incorrect. The odds on the exacta were $3.10 on the fav. and $9.90 on the second place finisher.

Rules are rules, that's a tick short of a 10/1, that tick being 10 cents.

So, don't you think that $70+ needs to be removed? I do. No gimmees.

Or maybe I'm incorrect, so please check.

LOL, you are right, the problem was I checked the board at Youbet and not the win payoff. Youbet sucks, update the F ing board....Very honorable of you Grits--my admiration for you is growing by leaps and bounds....Give me 10 minutes and I'll fix it.

Grits 03-14-2007 09:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by randallscott35
LOL, you are right, the problem was I checked the board at Youbet and not the win payoff. Youbet sucks, update the F ing board....Very honorable of you Grits--my admiration for you is growing by leaps and bounds....Give me 10 minutes and I'll fix it.

Thank you Randall. Accuracy is good, it works for us all.

I read over Brisnet's results and charts. Those work for me.

randallscott35 03-14-2007 09:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Grits
Thank you Randall. Accuracy is good, it works for us all.

I read over Brisnet's results and charts. Those work for me.

Well I would obviously do the same if you were doing them...It's hard sometimes to keep it all straight but the easy thing to do is check the off odds at Youbet--always thought they were perfect on that, but maybe I'll pdf results from now on....Minor thing I guess....440 behind. Getting late early.

Payson Dave 03-15-2007 07:52 AM

Equibase.com Result Charts
 
Equibase.com provides free race charts in a pretty timely manner...usually within an hour of the completion of the race...pdf format that includes finish position and final odds of all runners in the race...may be helpful in this study.

Payson Dave 03-15-2007 02:07 PM

Another few races for the place wagers...

http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbP...&RACE=1&BorP=B

http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbP...&RACE=1&BorP=B

http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbP...&RACE=4&BorP=B

randallscott35 03-15-2007 07:48 PM

DAY SEVEN MARCH 15, 2007 Carryover PLACE BETTING +$443.60

Aqueduct: Race 1-- PL: 10.60
Aqueduct: Race 6--PL: 10.40
Aqueduct: Race 9--PL: 6.30 EX: 28.20

Gulfstream: Race 1-- PL: 11.20
Gulfstream: Race 4-- PL: 12.00
Gulfstream: Race 6-- PL: 11.20
Santa Anita: Race 6-- PL: 9.60 EX: 78.40
Santa Anita: Race 7-- PL: 22.60



TOTALS SO FAR: EX- $428.60 PL $859.50
DIFFERENTIAL: PL +$430.90

Total Number of 10-1's or higher in spots 1 or 2: (55) Will Stop=250
Total Exactas so far: 14



Total Races So Far--172

Grits that 13 dollars can get you 12 items, considering tax, on the Wendy's extra value meal. I suggest a plethora of junior cheesburgers, frosties, and sour cream potato--mind you I actually checked the Wendy's website for this post. Sad really.

Grits 03-15-2007 10:06 PM

Thanks RS for posting. I had a couple today, and that works.

I don't do Wendy's. Square burgers on a round bun. --Never have understood that deal.

I'm more of a Panera Bread Co.type. Those do me better.

randallscott35 03-16-2007 08:39 PM

DAY EIGHT MARCH 16, 2007 Carryover PLACE BETTING +$430.90


Gulfstream: Race 2-- PL: 14.80
Gulfstream: Race 3-- PL: 12.60 + 11.80

Santa Anita: Race 3-- PL: 5.00 EX: 9.40
Santa Anita: Race 4-- PL: 34.40+34.80
Santa Anita: Race 5-- PL: 9.40 EX: 56.60



TOTALS SO FAR: EX- $494.60 PL $970.50
DIFFERENTIAL: PL +$475.90

Total Number of 10-1's or higher in spots 1 or 2: (62) Will Stop=250
Total Exactas so far: 16


26% Exactas so far--not bad considering faves win 30% of the time and there is no given a 10-1 will run underneath, and yet it's still not close.

Total Races So Far--191

randallscott35 03-17-2007 08:26 PM

DAY NINE MARCH 16, 2007 Carryover PLACE BETTING +$475.90


Gulfstream: Race 2-- PL: 13.00 EX: 49.20
Gulfstream: Race 6-- PL: 12.80
Gulfstream: Race 10-- PL: 15.00 EX: 114.80

Santa Anita: Race 3-- PL: 9.40 EX: 45.20
Santa Anita: Race 5-- PL: 14.40
Santa Anita: Race 10-- PL: 20.00



TOTALS SO FAR: EX- $703.80 PL $1055.10
DIFFERENTIAL: PL +$351.30

Total Number of 10-1's or higher in spots 1 or 2: (68) Will Stop=250
Total Exactas so far: 19


Good day for you Grits my dear!!



Total Races So Far--211

Grits 03-17-2007 08:41 PM

Thank you sweetheart, as we mosey along. Tomorrow is Sunday, and that means that you will hammer me once again, more than likely.

randallscott35 03-17-2007 08:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Grits
Thank you sweetheart, as we mosey along. Tomorrow is Sunday, and that means that you will hammer me once again, more than likely.

Don't know how you can do better than 28% exacta rate for races right now. But the big ones at that clip can get you even.

randallscott35 03-18-2007 07:49 PM

DAY TEN (NO DARK DAYS INCLUDED) MARCH 18, 2007 Carryover PLACE BETTING +$351.30


Gulfstream: Race 2-- PL: 7.60 EX: 60.40
Gulfstream: Race 3-- PL: 7.00 EX: 39.80
Gulfstream: Race 4-- PL: 10.20
Gulfstream: Race 6-- PL: 21.40
Gulfstream: Race 8-- PL: 10.00 EX: 67.20
Gulfstream: Race 10-- PL: 39.00

Santa Anita: Race 7-- PL: 9.60 + 12.00



TOTALS SO FAR: EX- $871.20 PL $1171.50
DIFFERENTIAL: PL +$300.30

Total Number of 10-1's or higher in spots 1 or 2: (76) Will Stop=250
Total Exactas so far: 22




Total Races So Far--230

Grits 03-18-2007 08:08 PM

Still around $300. The $127. exacta in the 6th at GP that I missed by .20 cents, and another small one by another .20 cents at SA would have helped.

Woulda, coulda, shoulda. Rand, I think I'm going to be buying you a bottle of whiskey darlin.'

randallscott35 03-19-2007 06:00 PM

DAY ELEVEN (NO DARK DAYS INCLUDED) MARCH 19, 2007 Carryover PLACE BETTING +$300.30


Gulfstream: Race 2-- PL: 11.20 EX: 57.40




TOTALS SO FAR: EX- $928.60 PL $1182.70
DIFFERENTIAL: PL +$254.10

Total Number of 10-1's or higher in spots 1 or 2: (77) Will Stop=250
Total Exactas so far: 23


Exciting day with all of one race qualifying.

Total Races So Far--239

Grits 03-19-2007 06:02 PM

Give me another week, I'll pass you.

randallscott35 03-19-2007 06:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Grits
Give me another week, I'll pass you.

Not in a week. Maybe 2. You've had a good run. It will go in the other direction. I believe the end will be within 200 bucks.

Grits 03-19-2007 08:47 PM

Rand, I just now looked at today's results at GP, wow, what a chalkfest. Glad I didn't download the races.

Grits 03-21-2007 08:25 AM

Well, I guess they'll run today at Aqueduct--if its sunny, and 70. And they'll run at GP today too.

And what all this means is -- unless I hit a couple of whopping big exactas, Rand's next bottle of fine whiskey is on me!

Maybe today will be MY day . . . right, where's that damn rolling eyes furball?

randallscott35 03-21-2007 09:38 PM

DAY 12 (NO DARK DAYS INCLUDED) MARCH 21, 2007 Carryover PLACE BETTING +$254.10


Aqueduct: Race 1-- PL: 30.60
Aqueduct: Race 2-- PL: 4.80 EX: 7.90
Aqueduct: Race 9-- PL:5.60 EX: 21.20
Gulfstream: Race 1-- PL: 26.80
Gulfstream: Race 3-- PL: 12.20 EX: 88.60
Gulfstream: Race 8-- PL: 10.20
Santa Anita: Race 4-- PL: 10.00




TOTALS SO FAR: EX- $1046.30 PL $1282.90
DIFFERENTIAL: PL +$236.20

Total Number of 10-1's or higher in spots 1 or 2: (84) Will Stop=250
Total Exactas so far: 26


(FIXED)
Got back from a long day to find Grits starting to nip at my heels....Don't worry the Empire will Strike Back eventually.

Total Races So Far--266

Grits 03-21-2007 10:03 PM

Rand, in the 8th at GP, you need to remove the exacta, the 2nd favorite at $1.80 won, over the longshot, the chalk ran 3rd at $1.50.

Anyway that's 250 races, so either way--I don't know what our sampling shows, kinda close at this point, but still you've won. And I will be buying you your favorite whiskey.

Thank you for all the results and posting them. You did a great job.

dg

randallscott35 03-21-2007 10:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Grits
Rand, in the 8th at GP, you need to remove the exacta, the 2nd favorite at $1.80 won, over the longshot, the chalk ran 3rd at $1.50.

Anyway that's 250 races, so either way--I don't know what our sampling shows, kinda close at this point, but still you've won. And I will be buying you your favorite whiskey.

Thank you for all the results and posting them. You did a great job.

dg

NO NO NO. Its not over at all. 250 races towards it....84 instances are done...Its 250 times a 10-1 finishes 1st or 2nd. Still a long long way to go. Only a third of it is done. This is a large sample we are doing. Will be done in about 20 more days I'm guessing. That will de definitive.

Antitrust32 03-21-2007 10:15 PM

no there are still about 165 races to go

Grits 03-21-2007 10:15 PM

Ok, I thought that you meant a total of 250 races. Good, then, we still have more work to do.

Thank you again, and sorry that you had such a long day. Get some rest.

randallscott35 03-21-2007 10:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Grits
Ok, I thought that you meant a total of 250 races. Good, then, we still have more work to do.

Thank you again, and sorry that you had such a long day. Get some rest.

The blue tinted info is all that matters. The races thing is something you wanted me to add....thanks, my day was good though it was long...Appreciate taking the exacta back---close faves and I'm tired so I missed it.

randallscott35 03-22-2007 07:50 PM

DAY 13 (NO DARK DAYS INCLUDED) MARCH 22, 2007 Carryover PLACE BETTING +$236.20


Aqueduct: Race 5-- PL: 8.20
Aqueduct: Race 6-- PL: 9.50 EX: 44.20
Aqueduct: Race 8-- PL: 10.40

Santa Anita: Race 1-- PL: 44.60 EX: 193.40 (Grits dream exacta happens!)
Santa Anita: Race 4-- PL: 8.60
Santa Anita: Race 5-- PL: 10.40
Santa Anita: Race 7-- PL: 15.00
Santa Anita: Race 8-- PL: 17.00 EX: 40.40




TOTALS SO FAR: EX- $1324.30 PL $1406.60
DIFFERENTIAL: PL +$83.30

Total Number of 10-1's or higher in spots 1 or 2: (92) Will Stop=250
Total Exactas so far: 29


A nightmare day indeed. I feel like somewhere I lost the fat kid at the end of my tug of war rope and am now being pulled towards the center. Where is he?

Total Races Run At All Tracks During The Contest--292

Grits 03-22-2007 08:11 PM

Where's one of those big kiss and hug furballs when you need one!!!! Calls for a Crown--on the rocks. My dream exacta, indeed.

Thank you Rand.

(((((((*kiss*)))))))

ArlJim78 03-22-2007 09:08 PM

And as they move on up the backstretch, Grits makes a run up into contention not wanting to let randall get too loose on the lead.

Grits 03-22-2007 09:27 PM

I really don't want to be looking at his hind all the way to the finish line, ArlJ.

I DON'T.

ArlJim78 03-22-2007 09:44 PM

Well then you'll just have to pass him, then you won't have to look at it.

Antitrust32 03-23-2007 05:09 PM

another huge day for grits so far... may pull ahead. racing finally getting back 2 normal at GP

Grits 03-23-2007 05:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Antitrust32
another huge day for grits so far... may pull ahead. racing finally getting back 2 normal at GP

LOLOL, . . .A.T., thanks I gotta go look!

randallscott35 03-23-2007 07:48 PM

DAY 14 (NO DARK DAYS INCLUDED) MARCH 23, 2007 Carryover PLACE BETTING +$83.30

Aqueduct: Race 2-- PL: 14.60 EX: 116.00
Aqueduct: Race 5-- PL: 35.40 (Dodged a nice bullet on a near fave)
Aqueduct: Race 9-- PL: 9.10 EX: 46.80
Gulfstream: Race 1-- PL: 7.40
Gulfstream: Race 2-- PL: 16.60 EX: 49.80
Gulfstream: Race 5-- PL: 7.00 EX: 31.40
Gulfstream: Race 8-- PL: 13.60


Santa Anita: Race 1-- PL: 7.40 EX: 15.40
Santa Anita: Race 4-- PL: 31.80
Santa Anita: Race 5-- PL: 33.40
Santa Anita: Race 6-- PL: 19.60 EX: 60.60


TOTALS SO FAR: EX- $1644.30 PL $1602.50
DIFFERENTIAL: EX +$41.80

Total Number of 10-1's or higher in spots 1 or 2: (103) Will Stop=250
Total Exactas so far: 35


The front wraps have just been added to me in mid-running. LOL, good day for you. I feel like Hillary Swank in Boys Don't Cry.

Total Races Run At All Tracks During The Contest--319

Grits 03-23-2007 09:40 PM

Well, I'll be darn. If this were the wire, I'd say we're pretty close.

Thank you Rand for posting. If you play tomorrow, good luck, I hope that you have winning tickets.

This has been a very long week.

randallscott35 03-23-2007 09:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Grits
Well, I'll be darn. If this were the wire, I'd say we're pretty close.

Thank you Rand for posting. If you play tomorrow, good luck, I hope that you have winning tickets.

This has been a very long week.

Thanks Grits. Go celebrate tonight. B/c like a horse on EPO, I'll find another gear eventually.

ArlJim78 03-23-2007 10:08 PM

OMG randall!

you better hope she made her move prematurely.

front wraps added druing the race? too funny.

randallscott35 03-23-2007 10:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ArlJim78
OMG randall!

you better hope she made her move prematurely.

front wraps added druing the race? too funny.

Jim her move was wide and I have Borel on my back (that sounds bad) so you know what that means.

ArlJim78 03-23-2007 10:22 PM

Ah ah, then you're in good hands with Bo-rail.

Grits 03-24-2007 12:09 PM

I wish we would change venues today. Let's do TURFWAY. I feel some fine exactas brewing.

randallscott35 03-24-2007 03:10 PM

Another devastating exacta at AQ. The fave by a grand teams up with a 55-1.

Grits 03-24-2007 03:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by randallscott35
Another devastating exacta at AQ. The fave by a grand teams up with a 55-1.

Oh, how grand!


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