Derby Trail Forums

Derby Trail Forums (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/index.php)
-   Joe Silverio Simulcast Center (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/forumdisplay.php?f=3)
-   -   Two at Toga (2023) (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=72557)

moses 08-04-2023 03:27 PM

That horse cannot avoid trouble.

moses 08-04-2023 03:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by moses (Post 1174579)
Well, I suck.

$128.00 wagered
$116.30 returned

First bet: Race 8 - #8 Mysterious Night, 10/1. There are several very good horses in this race. While this one hasn’t been great in his last two outings, I keep going back to that September race at Woodbine last year. He looked effortless in winning that and my hope is Charles Appleby has righted the ship here. I’m willing to find out at 10/1.

Second bet: Race 7 - #7 Papilio, 5/1. She has had some troubled trips in her recent starts but always shows heart and toughness. Looking for her to put it all together today.

Just saw that the 8 is scratched. I’ll take the #4 Ocean Vision, 15/1 morning line.

theguarantee 08-05-2023 02:07 PM

Will update record in the morning and will follow dahoss lead and post an extra pick given the rainout but will hold that for tomorrow since I’ll be trackside and looking more closely at the races. For today:

Best Bet: Race 8 #6 Dorth Vader 6/1 - think she finds the right spot and distance today and is as likely a winner as any in here.

Best Value: Race 12: #2 Danzigwiththestars - always liked this one and seems to be spotted pretty well today. Usually fires big at Saratoga and I guess maybe is not good enough but should run big today.

Good luck

moses 08-05-2023 06:44 PM

Program Trading won to collect $14.00. Charge It flopped.

$140.00 wagered.
$130.30 returned.

I’ll have to look at tomorrows races late tonight or tomorrow morning. Maybe I’ll add a third horse to even out the cancelation on Friday. I’ll have to see how I like the card. My 2nd alternate Cogburn won at a pretty nice price.

Just horrible about Maple Leaf Mel. Absolutely horrible.

moses 08-05-2023 10:32 PM

Sunday.

Race 4 - #3 Whatlovelookslike, 9/2
Race 7 - #6 Spirit and Fire, 10/1
Race 8 - #4 Brightwork, 9/2

(Note: Spirit and Fire and Brightwork are half-sisters)

theguarantee 08-06-2023 08:45 AM

Best Value: Race 4 - #5 Myriskyaffair 9/2 - Like the way this one has tactical speed and finishes like she'll take to added ground (and already ran a decent third this route at BAQ).

Best Bet: Race 5 - # 1A Durkin's Call 3/1 - A little disappointed in the morning line but going to stick with it as I think this veteran is sitting on go today, gets to what I think is his best distance and I'm hoping the patient Dylan Davis changes tactics a bit today and drops out/makes one run. Think his closing kick has been dulled a bit sitting a bit closer to the pace going the wrong distances the last bunch of races.

Best Value #2: Race 3 - #1 Crowding Out 6/1 - Think this one is another getting back to the right distance today. Has nice, easy, turf sprint speed and I don't see a ton of pace signed on here. Went too fast two back, too far in the last...today's distance should hit her square between the eyes, sports an easy win at today's distance, track and class level and appears to be training best she has in a while in the leadup to today.

Good luck.

moses 08-06-2023 02:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by moses (Post 1174636)
Sunday.

Race 4 - #3 Whatlovelookslike, 9/2
Race 7 - #6 Spirit and Fire, 10/1
Race 8 - #4 Brightwork, 9/2

(Note: Spirit and Fire and Brightwork are half-sisters)

I just noticed that Spirit and Fire is scratched. That kind of sucks because I liked and bet both Ozara and Burgee who won last race. But enough redboarding.

I’m going to pick a horse in race 6. The race looks loaded though I really don’t buy into the favorite the 4 horse. I like the works on the 1. The Mott 2 horse is supposed to be pretty good. The 5 has faced some tough horses. And I haven’t gotten to the Brown and Pletcher horses.

I’m going to take a shot on the 1 Empire Island who’s sitting at 6/1 right now. The horse looks very fit. Norm Casse/Santana hitting at a good rate. Giddy up.

moses 08-06-2023 03:03 PM

Announcing that the remaining turf races will be OFF at post time of race 6 (first leg of pick 5), is not great.

jms62 08-06-2023 03:51 PM

Nothing like being 7 FU**ING Deep and lose.:zz:

moses 08-06-2023 03:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jms62 (Post 1174650)
Nothing like being 7 FU**ING Deep and lose.:zz:

Pick 4?

The OFF races are ALL for races 7,9,10 now for the pick 5 and 6.

moses 08-06-2023 03:55 PM

I’d love to know Maker’s stats for races taken off the turf. He’s got to have a positive ROI. Seems like he is always hitting with bombs off the turf.

jms62 08-06-2023 04:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by moses (Post 1174652)
I’d love to know Maker’s stats for races taken off the turf. He’s got to have a positive ROI. Seems like he is always hitting with bombs off the turf.

Just realized they took races off turf.. Put bet in and went out. Got back in the middle of 6th race... They got me again. I'll just shut up and bet.. But not the Pick 5. Sure I'm not the only one they screwed.

moses 08-06-2023 04:29 PM

All 3 picks won today. Today was a good day.

$152.00 wagered
$178.50 returned

Dahoss 08-06-2023 04:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by moses (Post 1174654)
All 3 picks won today. Today was a good day.

$152.00 wagered
$178.50 returned

Fantastic job

moses 08-06-2023 07:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dahoss (Post 1174655)
Fantastic job

Thanks. Nice call for you today as well.

jms62 08-07-2023 05:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by moses (Post 1174654)
All 3 picks won today. Today was a good day.

$152.00 wagered
$178.50 returned

Great Day

moses 08-08-2023 06:09 PM

Two horses for Wednesday.

Race 6 - #13 Honey Dijon, 8/1 ML. I liked her earlier in the meet and Joe Sharp sent her back out for a blazing workout last week. The horses she was up against last time were pretty good. This group should be a lot easier as this one has been taken off the turf. Gaffalione still aboard, hopefully this one just needed a race.

Race 8 - #5 Pharaoh’s Heart, 7/2. I’m against Raging Sea here and hoping this one can jump out to the lead and never look back. The horse has talent, winning by 19 lengths two back. Not really impressed by anyone else in here. I’ll take 7/2 on this one.

theguarantee 08-09-2023 08:09 AM

^Nice work Sunday moses, should've taken your picks instead of mine. Durkin's Call looked like a sure winner at the top of the stretch but hung like a chandelier - the other two picks just weren't good. Finally got around to updating the records:

Wagered: $152.00
Returned: $211.00

Be back with picks for today later.

moses 08-09-2023 08:38 AM

I wanted to talk about race 5 a bit.

Keri Brion has a 2YO in a dirt sprint today. I’ve grown accustomed to seeing her with the hurdles. She’s a very good trainer and glad to see her with a starter at Saratoga (outside of a hurdles race).

That race is ripe for an absolute bomb to come in. I doubt it will be her horse (doesn’t seem to have much success with 2YO and the works are nothing special), but Zadorsky lost by 9 lengths to Gypsy Tales (who just didn’t really show up this weekend), Shinmering Allure faltered after a fairly moderate pace last time out (to a horse that lost to Zadorsky by 6 lengths), and Crazy Cami may run well with the addition of blinkers but was not impressive in her first start (though that most recent work is nice.)

I’m guessing Zadorsky and the Chad horses will get bet because none of the horses look like much. Could Contessa throw in another 2YO bomb? Maybe a dirt sprint specialist like Santana steals it?

Personally, I really like the #1 Lady Prospect. Rudy has been a bit cold at Saratoga since the first week or so but…Saez aboard. The works are good. Both sire and dam were precocious. I’m going to watch the prices but will be firing hard if that horse is 8/1 or above. If one of my other horses scratches, she would definitely be my next bet.

moses 08-09-2023 08:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by theguarantee (Post 1174694)
^Nice work Sunday moses, should've taken your picks instead of mine. Durkin's Call looked like a sure winner at the top of the stretch but hung like a chandelier - the other two picks just weren't good. Finally got around to updating the records:

Wagered: $152.00
Returned: $211.00

Be back with picks for today later.

Thanks…and WOW on your return so far. Keep it up!


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 03:46 AM.

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.6.8
Copyright ©2000 - 2025, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.