He looks as if he might be one of those off-the-pace horses whose performance is relatively easy to predict. If you look at his last four races, they went fast early in the first two and he won one and finished a strong second in the other. The next two they didn't go fast early and he didn't do anything. That's obviously not surprising, given his running style, but he looks like he might be even more one-dimensional than many. Given the probable pace scenario here if there aren't any scratches, and a Zito off-the-pace exacta looks very possible to me.

Not what I meant. The story ends with Lezcano winning the Travers.

He could be on Pegasus and f.uck it up. He's that bad.

It is in the stars.

Not that I think Admiral Alex is a probable winner of the Travers, but I don't recall in recent times a horse winning his debut in a two-turn dirt race and earning a higher figure than his 87. Am I forgetting someone?

Czaravich ?

Which signifies very little. Most horses don't run two turns on dirt to start their career therefore we'll never know....Affirmatif opened with a two turn 100 on the grass last spring.

Fly Down started of as one of my mains, I just dont trust Lezcano and have not decided yet what to do with him.

I was aware of Affirmatif, and I'm also aware that it's not common for a horse to debut going two turns on dirt; that's why I posed the question that I did. Take any answer for what you think it's worth.

Tapit ran a 90 Beyer when he won his debut at Delaware going two turns on dirt as a 2yo.

Tale of the Cat won his debut by double digits with a 95 going 1 mile and 70 yards at MTH at age 3. Ran in the Haskell two starts later.

To me the pace sets up alot better for Afleet Express more than it does Ice Box. Its gonna be a Belmont type pace as well as distance and we saw who finished 1/2/3 in that

Thanks for both. That's a pair of nice horses,

That was a great crop.

There is a pretty big difference between a 10f race and a 12f race.