We head into the meat of Championship Week with the bubble thinned down a bit thanks to this past week's attrition. It's no longer necessary (it never really was, it just helped aesthetically) to separate the bubble teams by conference. Some think that Boston College and Ohio State need a win in their respective conference tourneys to lock up bids, but with the failings of bubble teams left and right recently, I think those two are safely in.

LOCKS: DUKE, NORTH CAROLINA, WAKE FOREST, CLEMSON, FLORIDA STATE, BOSTON COLLEGE, WASHINGTON, ARIZONA STATE, UCLA, CALIFORNIA, CONNECTICUT, PITTSBURGH, LOUISVILLE, VILLANOVA, MARQUETTE, SYRACUSE, WEST VIRGINIA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA, TEXAS, TEXAS A&M, ILLINOIS, MICHIGAN STATE, PURDUE, OHIO STATE, LSU, TENNESSEE, UTAH, BYU, MEMPHIS, XAVIER, GONZAGA, BUTLER

For argument's sake, we'll assume that there will be no automatic qualifiers from outside of that bloc. Gonzaga and Butler, the only two that are currently playing in a conference tournament, are each in the championship game of their respective tournaments. Gonzaga plays St. Mary's tonight in the WCC title, while Butler hosts Cleveland State tomorrow in the Horizon.

The count of at-large bids locked up by these teams (with nary a surprise conference tourney champion) is 23.

That leaves 11 bids open for the following teams, in no particular order:

Maryland, Virginia Tech, Miami (FL), Arizona, Providence, Oklahoma State, Kansas State, Minnesota, Michigan, Penn State, Wisconsin, Florida, South Carolina, Auburn, New Mexico, UNLV, San Diego State, Tulsa, Dayton, Creighton, Utah State, St. Mary's, Davidson

Roughly half of those teams will get a bid to the Dance if there are no surprise conference tourney winners.

Now here's an idea of what teams need to do in their conference tournaments to secure bids. Obviously if St. Mary's wins tonight, the Gaels are in, trimming the bubble margin to 10 bids.

Teams that will likely be in with one conference tournament win: Arizona, Oklahoma State, Minnesota, Michigan
Teams that may be OK with one win, but need two to be locks: Providence, Wisconsin, Florida, South Carolina, Dayton, UNLV, New Mexico, Utah State
Teams that need two or more wins: Maryland, Virginia Tech, Miami (FL), Kansas State, Penn State, Auburn, San Diego State, Tulsa

Creighton and Davidson have already been eliminated from their conference tournaments, leaving their fates in the air. Both are shaky bubble candidates, we'll go over their cases later in the week, but needless to say, they want the rest of the bubble teams bounced early in their conference tournaments and the locks to go on and win.

Monday update.
LOCKS
ACC: UNC, Duke, FSU, Clemson, Wake Forest, Boston College
Big East: Pitt, UConn, Louisville, Marquette, Villanova, Syracuse, West Virginia
Big Ten: Michigan State, Purdue, Illinois, Ohio State
Big XII: Kansas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma State
Pac-10: UCLA, Washington, Arizona St, Cal
SEC: LSU, Tennessee
Mountain West: Utah, BYU
A-10: Xavier, Dayton
Conference USA: Memphis
Horizon: Butler
WCC: Gonzaga

So that's 36 teams in 11 conferences. If all of the conferences are won by teams in the above list, plus 20 conferences with an autobid but no lock, that leaves 9 spots open.
*Texas (which should have been there anyways), BC, Ohio State, Oklahoma State, & Texas A&M move in to LOCK status.
*Creighton drops back into the at-large pool after losing in the MVC Semis.

ACC:
Maryland- As usual, they found a way to lose a game that they had to have, this time to UVA on Saturday. Now 7-9 in the ACC which means they have to win a few in the ACC Tournament to feel safe. OUT
Virginia Tech- 17-13 overall, 7-9 in the ACC, 2-8 against the RPI top 50, and 6-11 against the RPI top 100. That's a tough sell. Loser of VT-Miami is definitely OUT, but they are on the wrong side anyways right now.
Miami- Back in the picture because of the soft bubble, but as stated above the VT-Miami game is essentially a play-in game for the NCAA's... and the winner still might have to win another game in the ACC Tournament. OUT

Big East:
Providence- MUST win their quarterfinal round game, and might need to beat #1 seed Louisville in the semis. OUT at the moment.

Big Ten:
Wisconsin- Keeping them here but barring a disastrous performance in the first round of the Big Ten tournament they should be fine, even with a loss. IN
Minnesota- Tough loss on Saturday after being up 12, would have moved them off this line, but now needs to win a game in the Big Ten Tournament. IN, for the moment.
Michigan- Halfway home to a bid based on the scenario I laid out last time. As long as they beat Iowa in the first round they are IN. 6-9 against the top 50 and 10-11 against the top 100, even if the road record blows.
Penn State- Ugh. I was rooting for them to get back into the Tourney but you CANNOT lose to a team like Iowa at this point of the season. Beat Illinois 2X and split with Purdue, Minny & Michigan, is that enough with that horrific nonconference schedule?? Not right now... OUT
Northwestern- They almost got the win they needed in Columbus but not quite there. Needs to make a run to the Big Ten championship game. OUT

Big XII:
* Oklahoma State moves into LOCK status because everyone around them keeps collapsing, and they just feel like a tournament team, unlike a lot of these other bums. I don't know for certain if they can afford a loss to Iowa State in the first round but given the way things are right now around them they probably can and still get in. Texas A&M earned it the hard way with a clinching win against Mizzou.

Pac-10:
Arizona- Does a win at home against #105 Stanford get you in? No, but it certainly cures the blues temporarily. Got a tough matchup with Az State in the first round and might need to win that one. OUT, for now.

SEC:
South Carolina- No bad losses but no real good wins either. The 10-6 record in the SEC is extremely hollow, but it's still a precedent- no SEC team has ever missed the tournament with a 10-6 league record that I can ever remember. Should be IN barring a horrific loss to either Georgia or Mississippi State in the SEC quarters.
Florida- They move back into the picture because everyone else sucks. OUT for now but that Washington win is looking better and better. Must beat Arkansas and Auburn, and 24-10 would be tough to ignore.

Mountain West:
* Two of the three teams that were in the picture last Friday will make it and they will work it out in Vegas this week.
UNLV- had a chance to lock it up and in the process, knock out SDSU but didn't get it done. They get a second crack in the quarterfinals of the Mtn West tournament at home- the winner is IN, the loser is OUT.
New Mexico- 12-4 in a tough conference is tough to ignore but man have they flown under the radar. I think they are just IN at this point (as in, the last team in) based on tying for the league title, but shouldn't lose to Wyoming in the quarters or there will be a lot of sweating in Albequerque this week.

Missouri Valley:
Creighton- if they had won the Illinois State game in the semis they would have locked up a bid but now they have to sweat. I think they're on the right side of the bubble right now with their 9-5 record against the top 100 and sharing the league title with UNI but certainly are playing with fire. IN

Others:
There are two bids left under the assumption that the Mountain West has a knockout game, none of the ACC under .500 teams are worthy, and UF doesn't make a run in the SEC Tournament. Rhode Island took a loss they really couldn't afford on Saturday against UMass. Right now, I'd give the first slot to St. Mary's if they need it, followed by Siena if they need it, followed by Utah State if they need it, followed by Rhode Island or Temple.

I have Oklahoma State and Dayton as locks (although I'd like to see both of them win a game in their respective tournaments, given their first round opponents), otherwise we agree. This is the worst bubble I've ever seen, however.

The number of bids changes if conf tourneys left yield unexpected results:

Unlikely examples:

ACC: Va Tech meets NC state in finals NC state wins
AT 10: Dayton meets St. Joes St. joes wins
Big East: Providence meets Notre Dame in finals ND wins
Big 10: Michigan meets Northwestern in finals Northwestern wins
Big 12: K State meets Iowa ST. Iowa St. wins
USA: Tulsa meets Houston Houston wins
Mountain: Utah meets SD st. SD st. wins
Pac 10: Arizona meets USC USC wins
SE: Auburn meets South Carolina Auburn wins

Anyone of the above or something similar creates an intriguing mess mainly because you would have bubble teams making the finals and possibly beating a good team along the way and then losing to a team that would probably not get in unless they win the tournament as shown in the examples above.
I think all of the scenarios above are possible although unlikely.
Obviously others scenarios can be created which would spawn chaos.

joey - can st mary's get over the hump tonight, mills still out for them he is the best player in the conf , i hope they win and get in

Dayton and South Carolina may have to sweat it out if they choke in their tournaments but for now I'm calling them locks. That makes 38 locks, 7 bids up for grabs. Currently I'd rank the remaining teams in this order:

Florida
St Marys
Minnesota
Michigan
Arizona
New Mexico
Penn St
--------------------------------
San Diego St
UAB
Providence
Temple
Creighton
UNLV
USC
Davidson
Auburn
Rhode Island

Beyond that I can't see anyone else getting in. Davidson and Creighton are on the wrong side of the bubble and can't improve themselves so are done. Anyone else off the bubble still has a shot to play themselves in. If Saint Mary's loses tonight that may push them onto the wrong side of the bubble. San Diego St - UNLV is a huge first round game in the MWC. Loser is dead, winner may need to knock off BYU in the semis to lock up a bid. New Mexico may need to knock off Utah to get a bid. If it winds up New Mexico against SDSt or UNLV in the finals they could get 4 bids, if it winds up Utah-BYU they might only get two.

It should be a great game. St. Mary's needs it more and should be riding high with Mills back, but Gonzaga's been playing really well since the loss to Memphis.

didn't know he was back

haven't been watching

I think you've got Creighton too low. They're 9-5 against the top 100, co-champions of the #9 ranked league, and some solid OOC wins including over Mtn West co-champs (and bubble dweller) New Mexico.

Davidson is dead.

Florida is garbage. If they got in over say a Creighton it would truly be an injustice.

SDSU-UNLV is essentially a play-in game. Don't think the winner needs another, the loser is out.

Siena will be a very interesting case if they lose.

Creighton couldn't afford to lose by 24. Both the teams that wound up in the finals of their league were blown out by MAAC teams in the bracket buster games which doesn't help their case as the #9 conference. They remind me a lot of Illinois St last year, were probably in until they got blown out in their championship. Or the 2006 Missouri St team that washed out in the first round of their conference tourney and missed the tournament with an RPI of 21:

http://kenpom.com/sked.php?&y=2008&team=Illinois%20St.
http://kenpom.com/sked.php?&y=2006&team=Missouri%20St.

I agree with you on Florida and were I picking the teams I'd toss out South Carolina as well. But I have a feeling the committee will put those teams in if they can just win one game in their conference tourney.

Once Siena went 0-3 in the Old Spice they couldn't afford more than one loss in conference. Once they lost that second conference game it pretty much killed them. The big knock on them is the lack of a top 50 win but that would change if they lost tonight to Niagara as they would move up to 46 or 47. They lost by 15 at Niagara and won by 17 against them on their home court. They get the championship game on their home court so really no excuses if they lose (like how UNLV has no excuse if they can't make their tourney finals on their home court). My main worry is that the Big East crew that came in for the semis last night allowed Egemonye to get away with assault with a deadly weapon (his elbows). Siena needs him to get in early foul trouble like he does every other game. If the refs let his elbows and pushing go all night it could be a tough game.

Creighton also lost to Drake at home and Arkansas-Little Rock and Wichita State on the road, then barely beat Wichita State and lost by 24 to Illinois State. That's not an at-large resume. I think they're done.

Siena has no chance in my opinion, and I strongly disagree with Scott that South Carolina is anything close to a lock. 10-6 in the conference means very little when you're 0-3 against the two Tournament teams and are 1-5 against the RPI 1-50. What's their good win? At Kentucky by one? At Baylor by three? Narrow wins against two NIT teams? They also lost to College of Charleston at home. I think they need at least two wins to be safe.

They lost at College of Charleston and I think the committee will not hold that against them since they have been trying to get big schools to go on the road non-conference and Charleston will be a tournament team. I agree that their resume is very weak but they went 4 games over .500 in a BCS league, and will finish with less than 10 losses and a top 50 RPI. That passes the smell test for me and I have a tough time seeing them left out against a relatively weak bubble.

They have nothing close to a quality win and the SEC is terrible. Auburn is 10-6 in the SEC and they at least beat LSU and Tennessee, so why aren't they a lock too?

SEC West is weaker, their RPI sucks, they'll have 11 losses, best non-conference loss was at Virginia (also their only non-conference win away from home), and an embarrassing loss at home to the 6th place team from the 27th rated conference. Amazingly despite all that they'll still have a chance if they can win two in the SEC tourney.

Illinois State in 2008: only 5-5 against the top 100 and just 2-5 against the top 50 (both wins were against non-tournament Creighton.) Their out of conference schedule was dreadful and lost to the only two good teams they played, and threw in a horrible loss to Eastern Michigan in there, plus finished 2nd in the MVC regular season. Lost 3x to Drake, leaving them 0-5 against tournament teams.

Missouri State in 2006: Lost in first round of the MVC tournament in what was essentially a play-in game. Best non-conf win was Wisconsin-Milwaukee @ 52. No bad losses, but just 4-8 against the top 50 and 5-8 against the top 100. Was the 5th team in a conference that in no way would ever get 5 bids (even if they deserved it thanks to the politics of the BCS leagues.) VERY strong bubble that year, Hofstra was probably the team that got most jobbed.

I think Creighton has a much stronger case than both of these teams.

You know if it was up to me I'd throw all the middling majors on the bubble out and throw, Creighton, Siena, Niagara, VCU, and George Mason into those last spots and the tournament would be more exciting from it. But the reality is the committee will throw those middling majors in over a Creighton just like they did with Oregon last year, Stanford in '07, Seton Hall and Alabama in '06, and Iowa St and NC State in '05 who all had horrible non-conference resumes and mediocre conference records.

i would too, but politics are strong. this year, the middling majors are so absurdly bad they may have to "go out on a limb" and take a creighton and siena over a florida or an 8th big ten team. i am rooting for the MWC to get 4 because that is a dangerous league. they can do some serious damage in the tourney.

at least in '06 when mizzou state didn't get in it was reasonable for the points i laid out... there were other teams in their own league that took the spot.

Never in a million years though did Seton Hall deserve that last spot over Missouri St and Hofstra. And then the CAA and MVC went on to prove how good they were in the NCAA Tourney while Seton Hall got blown out by 20 to Wichita St first round.

Honest opinion needed, I will admit that I have been very very dissapointed in ND this basketball season and they def. do not deserve a chance to dance nor are they even being considered. But, what would it take for them to get into consideration...

If they somehow ended up playing some good bball and making the Big East Championship game would that be enough to send them dancing or do they have to win it all?

If they beat Rutgers, West Virginia, Pitt, and then UConn before losing in the finals I think they'd be set. That's asking a lot though and I don't know if just three wins would get it done.