Derby Trail Forums
Page 6 of 13 « First < 45 6 78 > Last »
Show 40 post(s) from this thread on one page

Derby Trail Forums (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/index.php)
-   The Paddock (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/forumdisplay.php?f=2)
-   -   2/2 (GP): Gr. I Donn; Gr. II Swale (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=19806)

Coach Pants 02-02-2008 12:40 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by pick4
In the Donn, Daaher looks like he is a legit favorite and a horse I will not spend much time trying to beat. He might face some pressure early from the likes of Fairbanks and maybe Kiss The Kid but he will dust those horses. The problem to this race is will there be a fast early pace which has Daaher winning the battle and losing the war or a moderate pace where Daaher has enough to negoitiate the 1 1/8 and cross the line first.

If they go too fast I think a classy horse like Brass Hat could pick up the pieces. Another horse I think will run well is Spring At Last. This horse has shown he has talent but has never won a two turn race on dirt. Yet he has faced top quality competition in some of his route races and he did not diggrace himself. I like that he was able to stalk a moderate pace on the grass and finish strong to win on opening day over Santa Anita's turf course.
I'm not worried about O'Neill shipping and his record. The fact that he is shipping to run here tells me he has confidence in the horse. It looks like he was pointing Spring At Last to this race.

I think I'm going to play Spring at Last to win. If he is 6-1 or higher I will wager more on him. I'll also box him in an exacta box with Dahrer.
Watch the dirt races today and keep an eye on the undercard tomorrow before deciding on a closer.

tiggerv 02-02-2008 12:53 AM
Daaher wins by open lengths whether he leads or stalks. Very hard to close on that track.

Scav 02-02-2008 01:27 AM
I am not on either side here, but TG speaking, Brass Hat is the only one that has a competitive number with Daahar. This being said, Brass Hat should have zero excuse in this race given that he will get the pace, and the trip, and a tired front runner to run at.

But, I think it is very possible that Luzzi might let Fairbanks and Kiss the Kid clear, where Daahar is sitting third with a garden trip, and if that is the case, then Brass Hat has zero shot.

There is also the possiblity that Fairbanks/Kiss the Kid float wide on that first turn, and then Daahar gets an easy lead

Coach Pants 02-02-2008 01:40 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Scav
I am not on either side here, but TG speaking, Brass Hat is the only one that has a competitive number with Daahar. This being said, Brass Hat should have zero excuse in this race given that he will get the pace, and the trip, and a tired front runner to run at.

But, I think it is very possible that Luzzi might let Fairbanks and Kiss the Kid clear, where Daahar is sitting third with a garden trip, and if that is the case, then Brass Hat has zero shot.

There is also the possiblity that Fairbanks/Kiss the Kid float wide on that first turn, and then Daahar gets an easy lead
I hope Luzzi is that stupid to sit off of Fairbanks. That track played strictly to frontrunners yesterday and should play faster today.

pick4 02-02-2008 01:47 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pillow Pants
Watch the dirt races today and keep an eye on the undercard tomorrow before deciding on a closer.
I like Daaher and believe he will run well. Daaher has been lights out since he added blinkers. Spring At Last is not a deep closer and I don't anticipate he'll be one in this race. As I said I'm not going to spend a lot of capital in trying to beat him.

hockey2315 02-02-2008 03:06 AM
I don't see the need to try and beat Daaher in the Pk4. . . The first leg is a little wide open, the second leg is pretty wide open being that it's a maiden race, and there are a few potential price horses in the final leg. I'll just spread in the others and single Daaher rather than have to use another horse in the Donn when none of them look like they can hang with him (especially if the track plays to speed). . .

Bobby Fischer 02-02-2008 09:54 AM
Fairbanks will not have the lead at any call and probably not out of the gate. He isn't fast enough to lead on a quick fraction. Most likely Kiss the Kidd is going to set the pace with Daaher pressing. Fairbanks could be next and Spring at Last will not be far behind.

blackthroatedwind 02-02-2008 10:44 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Scav
Wincat is going to dust this field IMO, with or without Coal Play. His race at Philly was SUPER fast for a debut, and the only reason they went to Philly was because they got a 40% bonus on the purse for him being a PA bred. 30k for a MSW win, very Toga/Del mar esqe as far as purse size is concerned. (Now I will agree that when you have a good horse, an MSW purse should mean nothing).

I fully expect him to win this race, at even money

IMO you are going to regret this opinion and it is one of the dangers of looking at sheets and playing races from tracks that you do not follow.

Scav 02-02-2008 10:58 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
IMO you are going to regret this opinion and it is one of the dangers of looking at sheets and playing races from tracks that you do not follow.
So you obviously think it is much more wide open? Me personally, I think there is one A and 1 B. Wincat being the A and Coal Play being the B.

blackthroatedwind 02-02-2008 11:01 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Scav
So you obviously think it is much more wide open? Me personally, I think there is one A and 1 B. Wincat being the A and Coal Play being the B.
I think there are a few horses that can win that race and I don't particularly think the horse you like is one of them.

CSC 02-02-2008 11:02 AM
If Daheer runs his race, he should win this. My only concern would be the comments made by his trainer is that the Dubai World Cup is the race they are pointing to. This is basically a gr.1 prep in essence, which you should never want to take a short price on. (But note trainer's off the layoff %)

As for the others in here, they are recycled also rans, names we have seen and heard previously. Nothing to be excited about, Einstein is the only new face in this crowd, IMO this is an extremely poor race to take a shot at him on his first dirt race(minus the slop race against turf horses 2/4/06). The question is if Einstein was such a good horse on dirt, why didn't they take a shot with him earlier? Seems like abit of a desperation move.

Slewbopper 02-02-2008 01:21 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead
ill chime in on this as my opinion is really bad..lol

its dahaars race to lose ..when hes pressured early luzzi will have to get the lead ..at the 1/8th pole he will be in front but tired .. then the matz horse 1 wood be willing who was way out of it and the 5 ap arrow will try too run em down.... brass hat is a really bad horse..him and 9 have no shot.....
Brass Hat a really bad horse? He is a horse held together with duct tape who can run very well when right. I am going to play a Daaher w/ AP Arrow-Brass Hat exacta. If BH is on his best he can win the race. He has a very good record at the distance He won this race two years ago by over 4 lengths from the outside post...not an easy task at GP at 9 panels.. Will also play a few shekels on BH over Daaher.

Mike 02-02-2008 01:45 PM
I'm going against conventional wisdom here and doing a straight exacta of Daaher-Einstein.

I think Daaher is the only horse in the race that is capable of winning a race of this magnitude. The cluster**** of Fairbanks/Brass Hat/AP Arrow does not impress me at all. I'll side with the winning class of Einstein, a closer who should benefit from the pace scenarioi

FGFan 02-02-2008 01:50 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by pick4
You might be right about St. Joe. While the winner of his race race was right behind him early the rest of the pack was way back. Plus Z Humor came back to win the LeCombe at Fairgrounds. I'm going to use him with my top selection
Just a heads up if your using that thinking in your pick...it was Z Fortune who won the Lecomte not Z Humor.

Guess I'm going to eat chalk, probably going with Wincat and Silver Edition, interested to see what Coal Play does here.
And going to eat chalk on the Donn, have to go with Daaher, throwing Brass Hat in and either Fairbanks or Einstein just don't know about the dirt for him.

hockey2315 02-02-2008 02:00 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CSC
If Daheer runs his race, he should win this. My only concern would be the comments made by his trainer is that the Dubai World Cup is the race they are pointing to. This is basically a gr.1 prep in essence, which you should never want to take a short price on. (But note trainer's off the layoff %)
Invasor ran very well to overcome a lot of trouble last year for the same connections and with the same future goal so I wouldn't worry about Daaher being ready. . .

Travis Stone 02-02-2008 02:01 PM
Chalk makes me choke. Daaher's chances of a completely looose-on-the-lead scenario like he enjoyed in the Cigar Mile (where Midnite Lute was out of his ideal element) are enough for me to try and beat him.

CSC 02-02-2008 03:41 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by hockey2315
Invasor ran very well to overcome a lot of trouble last year for the same connections and with the same future goal so I wouldn't worry about Daaher being ready. . .
I hear you; however Daaher is not Invasor yet. For what it's worth I liked Daaher since betting him in The Queen's Plate. Good to see he turned out to be a pretty decent horse afterall.

robfla 02-02-2008 05:18 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SentToStud
The horse that could get lost on the board is Spring at LAst. I think he and Daaher and perhaps AP Arrow are the only contenders certain to get the trip they want. I think Spring can rate enough and if he goes off over 4/1, that will be a win play for me. I'll also use him over/under with Daaher and over AP Arrow in the ex.

good call Bruce

Indian Charlie 02-02-2008 05:22 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by robfla
good call Bruce
i dont suppose it would be too much to ask to actually say who the top 3 were in the race, for those of us without access to the race?

blackthroatedwind 02-02-2008 05:22 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Indian Charlie
i dont suppose it would be too much to ask to actually say who the top 3 were in the race, for those of us without access to the race?

Spring At Last - AP Arrow - Kiss the Kid - Brass Hat.


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 11:29 PM.
Page 6 of 13 « First < 45 6 78 > Last »
Show 40 post(s) from this thread on one page

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.6.8
Copyright ©2000 - 2025, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.