That track record had stood since 1989 (Sunny Prospector), and that in itself tells you something. And it's funny how many good, fast horses get 'perfect trips'... He also did it in flank-to-flank fashion the length of the stretch against a very good horse who had the benefit of a race over the track..

As I said tonight on the show, this horse isn't being managed by a trainer that worries about winning every start. Nafzger approaches campaigns with broader goals in mind, and starts along the way are a means to an end. While the supertrainers only want to start their horses in spots where they have a high percentage of winning, frequently facing small fields, Nafzger takes the long view.

That doesn't mean he's a lock on Saturday, as Nafzger was focused on the Derby.. the Derby.. and the Derby (as opposed to the Derby, Preakness and Belmont. Recall that Unbridled was 2nd in the Preakness and 4th in the Belmont..). But I would say that his career cannot be looked at the way we have all become used to looking at current racehorse careers. He's been managed the way John Nerud taught Nafzger to manage special horses, and it's been a long time since we've had a guy out there running his horses in spots designed to best position them for specific efforts later..

I see a future in the Hatton reading room for this here thread...

i'm not throwing out his bluegrass, i didn't think losing a head bob was a difference between good and bad.

i don't think the horse is used up, set up for a bounce, etc. he's run three times all year. a record setter in tampa, lost a weird bluegrass, and then won his 'easiest' race this year in kentucky. interesting the one race that many think street sense may have reached his bottom in is the one that he won by the largest margin this year--of course three starts isn't much to go on, but it is still just three starts this year. nafzger got him up for the derby, now he has to keep a horse who has run three times in six months up for a bit-how hard is it really to keep a horse who is in good shape, who has a few inches standing between himself and a four-race win streak, in that shape for a few weeks? i'm not being facetious with that question, i'm serious!

Even if he had won the head bob, it still wouldn't have been a great race.

no, but it was not a bad one either.

to be honest tho, i think hard spun turns the tables this time.

and then on to the belmont, best two out of three!

ateam, let's make a hypo bet. You pick some race in the future for Street Sense and Hard Spun in which you think they will be less likely to "bounce". How about the first race they run after the Belmont? (whether or not they run in the Belmont, they should be well-rested in whatever race they run after the Belmont.) I'll take each horse's Preakness performance. You give me odds of 6-5, since you think they will bounce in the Preakness, and I think it's a coin flip whether they will run better or worse in the Preakness than in any given future race. If you'd rather have the next race after the Preakness, even if it's the Belmont, that's fine, too. I'm willing to take the Preakness performances over any random future race. (We could even leave the picking of the future race open, with the stipulation that it has to be in 2007! Of course, I'm liable to be obnoxiously reminding you to pick your race every time one of them is entered!)

So-called "bounce" is always much easier to "see" after the fact, as in "he bounced". If you believe a horse will bounce, you will sooner or later be correct, in the sense that sooner or later the horse will toss in a sub-par performance for some reason.

I agree with this completely. He is a deserving favorite in the Preakness, but hardly a lock. I have him between 2-1 and 5-2 in my line. He will of course go off lower than that.

--Dunbar