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An opinion on Jazil is like an opinion on the new $20.00 bill. Yours is shared by many no matter what it is. Usually, these opinions are borrowed , as much ink has been spilled writing about his races.
A real opinion on a horse would be something provocative on Little Cherokee. He ran in yesterdays ninth in NY, as the default post time favorite for two gate scratches. Multi-race ticket pain. Mr. Tater would be an interesting horse to have an opinion on too. Don't fight over horses. Fight over bets on horses. |
This horse was taken out of his running style and perhaps hasn't recovered from the bone bruising he suffered after the Belmont.
Retire him. Corinthian only went 1:48 on a fast Gulfstream track and with Jazil 10 lengths back of that effort it's obvious the horse is not right. If the horse was right he wouldn't be in allowance conditions to begin with. |
He runs the same race everytime....he doesn't run horses down....he only passes the horses who stop in front of him. Which is why a brutally fast pace for the distance is so key to his success.
His mother actually won a Grade 2 stake with a 68 Beyer...and was a slowpoke just like him. |
Send him over the fences
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--Dunbar |
i think they ought to try turf with jazil.
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I'd say Brother Derek was definitely more overrated than Jazil at one point. Now, however, Brother Derek's kind of like the Funny Cide of the handicap division, that is, with his faculties still in tact, of course. Nowadays, Jazil is probably the more highly regarded horse.
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Brother Derek is a great horse to have around because he continuously takes strange win money every time he runs, creating better than deserved prices on horses like Arsen Squad (3/1), Awesome Gem (9/1) and Latent Heat (6/1).
But I still think Jazil at 4/5 at Gulfstream 2nd off a race that was very average against a mediocre Take the Bluff, was the worst win bet I have seen this year. Those who were smart enough to hammer him at 6/1 in the Belmont, good for you. I was one of the stupid ones who thought High Finance was a good enough horse to win. |
just saw that danthebluegrassman is in for an 18k tag today.
too many think that because a horse was once on the derby trail, he will always be better then the other horses he faces-which is why bro derek gets bet down. i can understand some not liking jazil, but he's not overrated. no one has rated him-and everyone knows what a belmont win can mean-sarava is an excellent example of that. |
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My "worst win odds" of the year at Gulfstream honors go to Miesque's Approval last Saturday at 4/5. Why anyone would take that price on a horse whose last wins were at odds of 40-1, 25-1 and 10-1 absolutely flabbergasts me. It's always nice and interesting to see a BC winner come back to run and I'm a huge Wolfson fan (something like 22 of his 46 wins in 2006 were stakes). But what the hell is the point of betting these kind of horses at less than even money? |
Is this thread still going?
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Yep. I was amazed since I didn't log on last night that this thread was still towards the top this morning. |
I love Corinthian as a horse but I have to agree with you that 2.40/1
was no great shakes on him, even though its always easy to say after a horse destroys a field by 9 that it was easy money. I dont do a lot of betting during the week and I knew that Corinthian would be below my mendoza line so it was a non bet for me. If I had to bet the race, I may have tried to beat Jazil for 2nd and would have lost. Corinthian has always been a headcase and you never really know what you're going to get come raceday. Not the kind of horse I want at 2/1. Nice to see him back and in great form. |
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That's not necissarly true about have a Stakes caliber horse run in an allowance race. Trainers use them all them time to kind of whip them back into racing shape before tackling the stronger competition. Very similiar concept that baseball uses when a player is making a comback to spend some time in the minors to get back into playing shape. |
Let me just say that after watching the replay a few more times, I'm not quite as impressed with Corinthian, and I'm not that down on Jazil, for a variety of reasons.
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tremendous props to shadwell for returning jazil and invasor to the track-they could easily have retired them both.
funny isn't it, we talk of what could have been with bernardini and his ilk, while many down the ones that are still out there putting it all on the line. |
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Maybe the public has been over-rating his chances of winning, but there is no need to knock the horse for that. He is what he is. |
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I couldn't help but be PO'ed when I saw pics of Bernie running in the snow...he should be doing that on the track. |
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On their homepage they have a photo of Circular Quay...he isn't the most attractive horse out there. |
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If you don't think Corinthian is worth a bet at 2-1, then that suggests you think he has less than a 33% chance to win the race. So, who would you give the remaining 67+% chance to win? A good chunk of that HAS to be Jazil's against that weak field. --Dunbar |
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Bernie looks a lot like Slew! Funny how different they look when they're out of their "element" out in the paddock. :)
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After Corinthian was allowed to get the first half-mile in 47 3/5, which is a mild workout for a horse of his caliber, it's no surprise that he could sprint home in 1:00 2/5, which he could do standing on his head. Jazil's premature move was a result of the slow early pace and the jock not wanting to get stuck 10 lengths behind a 48 half. The race was the wrong shape for a closer like Jazil.
The question on Corinthian is what happens when he goes up against Barcola or some other speed freak (22.83 first quarter in the Donn). Will he run with them and still win by many, will he rate, or will he burn out? |
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I was at the race and did not bet it, so no rationalizing here, either. You leave out the effect of takeout. To me that means it's often the case that there's no horse in any single race worth betting if the actual odds do not exceed your own handicapped line for every horse in that given race to the extent you require to make a wager. When I looked at this race, I was close in my estimation of what the horses would go off at. I figured JAzil would go off at 4/5, Corinthian at 5/2 and King of Jazz at 7/2. The others I was close on. I would have bet Jazil at 3/2, Corinthian at 7/2 or KoJ at 9/2. None of these were at those numbers. Total "acceptable" odds for these three horses alone add up to about 1.15-1, so I knew going in it was a race I would not be very likely to bet. Most races look this way to me. You? |
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Well said Canon Shell and I doubt you'll take the bashing like Point Given 1985 did when he posted his thoughts about the 2 horses.
Corinthian is a versatile sort who can adapt to any race scenario. He doesnt rely on pace. He wins when he is the best, plain and simple. No excuses. Excuses are like 100K cars in Miami...everybotty got em. |
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Gander, what Cannon Shell said and how he said it was decidedly different than how this pointgiven character said what he had to say. When you call out the world on a horse like Jazil, you're going to take some grief for it. When you start several different threads proclaiming a horse won't finish in the exacta for a particular race, people are going to call you out on it when said horse comes in for the place. These are two entirely different types of posters.
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These are two entirely different types of posters.
They sure are. One is a scuccessful horse trainer and the other is a 21 year old college kid with a gambling vice. |
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