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-   -   JAZIL....Most Overrated horse in the history of horse racing.... (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=9617)

goo 02-09-2007 12:26 AM

An opinion on Jazil is like an opinion on the new $20.00 bill. Yours is shared by many no matter what it is. Usually, these opinions are borrowed , as much ink has been spilled writing about his races.

A real opinion on a horse would be something provocative on Little Cherokee.

He ran in yesterdays ninth in NY, as the default post time favorite for two gate scratches. Multi-race ticket pain. Mr. Tater would be an interesting horse to have an opinion on too.


Don't fight over horses. Fight over bets on horses.

todko 02-09-2007 02:02 AM

This horse was taken out of his running style and perhaps hasn't recovered from the bone bruising he suffered after the Belmont.

Retire him.

Corinthian only went 1:48 on a fast Gulfstream track and with Jazil 10 lengths back of that effort it's obvious the horse is not right. If the horse was right he wouldn't be in allowance conditions to begin with.

The Indomitable DrugS 02-09-2007 02:33 AM

He runs the same race everytime....he doesn't run horses down....he only passes the horses who stop in front of him. Which is why a brutally fast pace for the distance is so key to his success.

His mother actually won a Grade 2 stake with a 68 Beyer...and was a slowpoke just like him.

The Bid 02-09-2007 02:34 AM

Send him over the fences

ateamstupid 02-09-2007 03:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Bid
Send him over the fences

He's too short.

Dunbar 02-09-2007 06:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gander
I give him kudos for being able to identify that Jazil was a bad win wager today. I wouldnt say he had zero chance but in my opinion at 4/5 he was one of the worst win wagers I have seen this year.

"zero chance" was further from the truth than 4/5.

--Dunbar

Danzig 02-09-2007 08:46 AM

i think they ought to try turf with jazil.

Mac88 02-09-2007 08:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig188
i think they ought to try turf with jazil.

Agreed. His style would fit alot better there.

slotdirt 02-09-2007 09:00 AM

I'd say Brother Derek was definitely more overrated than Jazil at one point. Now, however, Brother Derek's kind of like the Funny Cide of the handicap division, that is, with his faculties still in tact, of course. Nowadays, Jazil is probably the more highly regarded horse.

Mac88 02-09-2007 09:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slotdirt
I'd say Brother Derek was definitely more overrated than Jazil at one point. Now, however, Brother Derek's kind of like the Funny Cide of the handicap division, that is, with his faculties still in tact, of course. Nowadays, Jazil is probably the more highly regarded horse.

I think a bit of the luster surrounding Brother Derek will begin to fade. AN ok but over rated Derby performance that he has not backed up. Decent fourth in BC Classic but definately bias aided. SInce then some OK efforts out west. He is what he is.

Gander 02-09-2007 09:08 AM

Brother Derek is a great horse to have around because he continuously takes strange win money every time he runs, creating better than deserved prices on horses like Arsen Squad (3/1), Awesome Gem (9/1) and Latent Heat (6/1).

But I still think Jazil at 4/5 at Gulfstream 2nd off a race that was very average against a mediocre Take the Bluff, was the worst win bet I have seen this year.

Those who were smart enough to hammer him at 6/1 in the Belmont, good for you. I was one of the stupid ones who thought High Finance was a good enough horse to win.

Danzig 02-09-2007 09:10 AM

just saw that danthebluegrassman is in for an 18k tag today.
too many think that because a horse was once on the derby trail, he will always be better then the other horses he faces-which is why bro derek gets bet down.

i can understand some not liking jazil, but he's not overrated. no one has rated him-and everyone knows what a belmont win can mean-sarava is an excellent example of that.

randallscott35 02-09-2007 09:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig188
just saw that danthebluegrassman is in for an 18k tag today.
too many think that because a horse was once on the derby trail, he will always be better then the other horses he faces-which is why bro derek gets bet down.

i can understand some not liking jazil, but he's not overrated. no one has rated him-and everyone knows what a belmont win can mean-sarava is an excellent example of that.

What Baffert did by entering Danthebluegrass in the Derby to keep another out, then scratch the horse was a disgrace.

SentToStud 02-09-2007 09:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gander
Brother Derek is a great horse to have around because he continuously takes strange win money every time he runs, creating better than deserved prices on horses like Arsen Squad (3/1), Awesome Gem (9/1) and Latent Heat (6/1).

But I still think Jazil at 4/5 at Gulfstream 2nd off a race that was very average against a mediocre Take the Bluff, was the worst win bet I have seen this year.

Those who were smart enough to hammer him at 6/1 in the Belmont, good for you. I was one of the stupid ones who thought High Finance was a good enough horse to win.

I was at Gulf for the late ones yesterday and also thought he was a bet against. But mostly I was there because I thought it was an interesting race as opposed to a great betting opportunity as 2.40-1 was no great price on Corinthian either, at least in my mind.

My "worst win odds" of the year at Gulfstream honors go to Miesque's Approval last Saturday at 4/5. Why anyone would take that price on a horse whose last wins were at odds of 40-1, 25-1 and 10-1 absolutely flabbergasts me. It's always nice and interesting to see a BC winner come back to run and I'm a huge Wolfson fan (something like 22 of his 46 wins in 2006 were stakes).

But what the hell is the point of betting these kind of horses at less than even money?

Buffymommy 02-09-2007 09:32 AM

Is this thread still going?

slotdirt 02-09-2007 09:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Buffymommy
Is this thread still going?

Is that a rhetorical question?

Buffymommy 02-09-2007 09:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slotdirt
Is that a rhetorical question?


Yep. I was amazed since I didn't log on last night that this thread was still towards the top this morning.

Gander 02-09-2007 09:44 AM

I love Corinthian as a horse but I have to agree with you that 2.40/1
was no great shakes on him, even though its always easy to say after a horse destroys a field by 9 that it was easy money. I dont do a lot of betting during the week and I knew that Corinthian would be below my mendoza line so it was a non bet for me. If I had to bet the race, I may have tried to beat Jazil for 2nd and would have lost.

Corinthian has always been a headcase and you never really know what you're going to get come raceday. Not the kind of horse I want at 2/1.

Nice to see him back and in great form.

boswd 02-09-2007 09:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by todko
This horse was taken out of his running style and perhaps hasn't recovered from the bone bruising he suffered after the Belmont.

Retire him.

Corinthian only went 1:48 on a fast Gulfstream track and with Jazil 10 lengths back of that effort it's obvious the horse is not right. If the horse was right he wouldn't be in allowance conditions to begin with.


That's not necissarly true about have a Stakes caliber horse run in an allowance race. Trainers use them all them time to kind of whip them back into racing shape before tackling the stronger competition. Very similiar concept that baseball uses when a player is making a comback to spend some time in the minors to get back into playing shape.

slotdirt 02-09-2007 09:48 AM

Let me just say that after watching the replay a few more times, I'm not quite as impressed with Corinthian, and I'm not that down on Jazil, for a variety of reasons.

Danzig 02-09-2007 10:27 AM

tremendous props to shadwell for returning jazil and invasor to the track-they could easily have retired them both.

funny isn't it, we talk of what could have been with bernardini and his ilk, while many down the ones that are still out there putting it all on the line.

ArlJim78 02-09-2007 10:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig188
tremendous props to shadwell for returning jazil and invasor to the track-they could easily have retired them both.

funny isn't it, we talk of what could have been with bernardini and his ilk, while many down the ones that are still out there putting it all on the line.

Exactly. I for one appreciate seeing horses like Jazil running. Every horse does not have to be a front runner or a win machine to make racing interesting. Jazil has a certain style of running, maybe not the fastest one around and certainly one that might need a good pace set-up to win. So what? You can't just blindly single him, but its hard to totally rule him out in certain cases either.

Maybe the public has been over-rating his chances of winning, but there is no need to knock the horse for that. He is what he is.

paisjpq 02-09-2007 10:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig188
tremendous props to shadwell for returning jazil and invasor to the track-they could easily have retired them both.

funny isn't it, we talk of what could have been with bernardini and his ilk, while many down the ones that are still out there putting it all on the line.

also evidence that perhaps one brother is more 'sporting' than the other?

Sightseek 02-09-2007 10:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by paisjpq
also evidence that perhaps one brother is more 'sporting' than the other?

Indeed it is!
I couldn't help but be PO'ed when I saw pics of Bernie running in the snow...he should be doing that on the track.

Cajungator26 02-09-2007 10:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sightseek
Indeed it is!
I couldn't help but be PO'ed when I saw pics of Bernie running in the snow...he should be doing that on the track.

Where did you see those? I'd love to see them. :cool:

Sightseek 02-09-2007 11:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cajungator26
Where did you see those? I'd love to see them. :cool:

http://www.horsephotos.com/searchresults.jsp

On their homepage they have a photo of Circular Quay...he isn't the most attractive horse out there.

Dunbar 02-09-2007 11:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gander
Corinthian has always been a headcase and you never really know what you're going to get come raceday. Not the kind of horse I want at 2/1.

This is inconsistent with saying that the 4/5 on Jazil was so awful. (I bet nothing on the race, so there's no rationalizing going on here.)

If you don't think Corinthian is worth a bet at 2-1, then that suggests you think he has less than a 33% chance to win the race. So, who would you give the remaining 67+% chance to win? A good chunk of that HAS to be Jazil's against that weak field.

--Dunbar

Cajungator26 02-09-2007 11:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sightseek
http://www.horsephotos.com/searchresults.jsp

On their homepage they have a photo of Circular Quay...he isn't the most attractive horse out there.

Thanks! He looks gorgeous... and so happy! :D

Sightseek 02-09-2007 11:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cajungator26
Thanks! He looks gorgeous... and so happy! :D

He would have been happier running down the track at Saratoga this summer. ;)

Cajungator26 02-09-2007 11:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sightseek
He would have been happier running down the track at Saratoga this summer. ;)

Something tells me that he wouldn't agree... but I know we'd all be happier if he was!

Cajungator26 02-09-2007 11:14 AM

Bernie looks a lot like Slew! Funny how different they look when they're out of their "element" out in the paddock. :)

Pedigree Ann 02-09-2007 11:37 AM

After Corinthian was allowed to get the first half-mile in 47 3/5, which is a mild workout for a horse of his caliber, it's no surprise that he could sprint home in 1:00 2/5, which he could do standing on his head. Jazil's premature move was a result of the slow early pace and the jock not wanting to get stuck 10 lengths behind a 48 half. The race was the wrong shape for a closer like Jazil.

The question on Corinthian is what happens when he goes up against Barcola or some other speed freak (22.83 first quarter in the Donn). Will he run with them and still win by many, will he rate, or will he burn out?

SentToStud 02-09-2007 11:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dunbar
This is inconsistent with saying that the 4/5 on Jazil was so awful. (I bet nothing on the race, so there's no rationalizing going on here.)

If you don't think Corinthian is worth a bet at 2-1, then that suggests you think he has less than a 33% chance to win the race. So, who would you give the remaining 67+% chance to win? A good chunk of that HAS to be Jazil's against that weak field.

--Dunbar

Couple things...

I was at the race and did not bet it, so no rationalizing here, either.

You leave out the effect of takeout. To me that means it's often the case that there's no horse in any single race worth betting if the actual odds do not exceed your own handicapped line for every horse in that given race to the extent you require to make a wager.

When I looked at this race, I was close in my estimation of what the horses would go off at. I figured JAzil would go off at 4/5, Corinthian at 5/2 and King of Jazz at 7/2. The others I was close on. I would have bet Jazil at 3/2, Corinthian at 7/2 or KoJ at 9/2. None of these were at those numbers.

Total "acceptable" odds for these three horses alone add up to about 1.15-1, so I knew going in it was a race I would not be very likely to bet.

Most races look this way to me. You?

Cannon Shell 02-09-2007 01:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pedigree Ann
After Corinthian was allowed to get the first half-mile in 47 3/5, which is a mild workout for a horse of his caliber, it's no surprise that he could sprint home in 1:00 2/5, which he could do standing on his head. Jazil's premature move was a result of the slow early pace and the jock not wanting to get stuck 10 lengths behind a 48 half. The race was the wrong shape for a closer like Jazil.

The question on Corinthian is what happens when he goes up against Barcola or some other speed freak (22.83 first quarter in the Donn). Will he run with them and still win by many, will he rate, or will he burn out?

Corinthian is not a need the lead type and if some one dimensional horse like Barcola set rapid pace, it will fit well with Corinthians style. Jazil is a 2nd rate handicap horse who will rarely find a race with enough distance or pace to suit him. He needs something like the American version of the St. Ledger which does not nor ever will exist. Plenty of mediocre horses have won classics and he is one of them.

Gander 02-09-2007 01:22 PM

Well said Canon Shell and I doubt you'll take the bashing like Point Given 1985 did when he posted his thoughts about the 2 horses.

Corinthian is a versatile sort who can adapt to any race scenario. He doesnt rely on pace. He wins when he is the best, plain and simple. No excuses.

Excuses are like 100K cars in Miami...everybotty got em.

Cannon Shell 02-09-2007 01:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pedigree Ann
After Corinthian was allowed to get the first half-mile in 47 3/5, which is a mild workout for a horse of his caliber, it's no surprise that he could sprint home in 1:00 2/5, which he could do standing on his head. Jazil's premature move was a result of the slow early pace and the jock not wanting to get stuck 10 lengths behind a 48 half. The race was the wrong shape for a closer like Jazil.

The question on Corinthian is what happens when he goes up against Barcola or some other speed freak (22.83 first quarter in the Donn). Will he run with them and still win by many, will he rate, or will he burn out?

What did you think of Coin Silver standing stud in Ireland? Seems like a strange fit.

Cajungator26 02-09-2007 01:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gander
Well said Canon Shell and I doubt you'll take the bashing like Point Given 1985 did when he posted his thoughts about the 2 horses.

Cannon didn't devote an entire thread to Jazil proclaiming him to be the most overrated horse in the history of horse racing, Gander.

slotdirt 02-09-2007 01:25 PM

Gander, what Cannon Shell said and how he said it was decidedly different than how this pointgiven character said what he had to say. When you call out the world on a horse like Jazil, you're going to take some grief for it. When you start several different threads proclaiming a horse won't finish in the exacta for a particular race, people are going to call you out on it when said horse comes in for the place. These are two entirely different types of posters.

Cannon Shell 02-09-2007 01:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cajungator26
Cannon didn't devote an entire thread to Jazil proclaiming him to be the most overrated horse in the history of horse racing, Gander.

I dont think he is overrated, just ordinary. Funny thing about the Triple Crown is that everybody calls for all these changes but rarely is anything said about the Belmont. It really does not fit into the modern racing scene (good or bad) and without a triple crown on the line is really a mediocre event. I'm not suggesting a change but I am suprised that others haven't.

Gander 02-09-2007 01:31 PM

These are two entirely different types of posters.

They sure are. One is a scuccessful horse trainer and the other is a 21 year old college kid with a gambling vice.


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