Hmm. Is Baffert that down on Van Dyke after the Rebel loss? Irad may be the better jockey...I don’t know...but I didn’t think Baffert teamed up with the Ortiz brothers too often.

I don’t see how he gets off OB. Roadster’s win was not as impressive as OB’s, in my opinion.

As for Gray Magician, I wonder why Prat hasn’t been announced. Maybe Prat has a chance at Roadster?

So rooting for Money Mike to make Baffert rue the day he decided that he was no longer his go to guy on Derby Trail horses.

Baffert used the younger (physically stronger) guys on those horses in those spots for a reason. Smith understands that.

Was Mike on any Baffert horses this Derby season? Mike is politically savy enough not to go to war and in his quiet and classy way show he is strong enough to win yet another Derby and the wind up is Baffert made a bad choice. My opinion of course.

Looks like Fox Hill.

Derby season Baffert/Smith: Roadster (who he was on from the start and was considered the barn's best 2yo), Much Better, Coliseum. Rosario had Game Winner early on. Van Dyke had Improbable. Prat rode Dessman. Talamo on Mucho Gusto.

Beyond the 3yo boys, Smith has McKinzie, Dream Tree, Chasing Yesterday.

There's no story to manufacture here.

:o on me for forgetting Baffert trained Roadster.

He has to ride Roadster. I don't think it's that tough a choice.

Kind of cinches it, right? Omaha Beach it is!

My opinion Ohama Beach may be pace compromised and Roadster would have best chance...

Who would you ride, considering everything?

That's only part of it, but I did factor that in.

He does have history with them.
It would be cool to go to the sales with whomever picks out their stock. What an eye for horses.
Omaha Beach has proven his ability to do what Smith asks. I think he has confidence in that colt.

If there is a contested pace and things fall apart, I don’t think Roadster is the most likely to pick up the pieces. I don’t think he likes getting dirt in his face and it wasn’t until he dropped back and then swung wide that he really started to run in the Santa Anita Derby. It’s unlikely he’ll have the space to do that in a 20-horse field. And I’m still not certain that questions about his medical issues have been fully resolved. I’m looking at Tacitus and Code of Honor if the pace is right.

Just my opinion, but Roadster is ranked 3rd for me of the Baffert horses and probably somewhere in the 8-15 range in the overall Derby field.

I think Roadster is by far the best of the Baffert 3. I dont think the other ones have any chance to be honest. Omaha Beach has run well last two races but Roadster seems to have a huge upside. Tough decision for Mike Smith.

Bovada as of 4/16/2019:

Roadster 5
Omaha Beach 5.5
Game Winner 6
Improbable 8
Maximum Security 10
Tacitus 12
Vekoma 12
Code of Honor 14
Cutting Humor 20
Bourbon War 22
War of Will 22
Win Win Win 22
Anothertwistafate 25
By My Standards 25
Haikal 25
Long Range Toddy 25
Plus Que Parfait 25
Tax 25
Bodexpress 28
Country House 33
Spinoff 33
Signalman 40
Master Fencer 66
Sueno 66

Omaha Beach.

He could be the best of the 3. I’m not sure about him being the best by far. He beat Game Winner by 1/2 a length and Game Winner was wide the entire race.

When it comes down to it, I’m just not a fan of horses in the Derby who plan to stalk but only have experience in small fields. His one saving grace for me will be if Smith decides to stay on him. Then I’ll really have to reconsider things.

For Omaha Beach, I read somewhere that he went unsold as an RNA at the yearling sale at Keeneland and the reason no one matched his reserve was some sort of medical issue. Does anyone know what the issue was? Obviously, it hasn’t hampered him so far.

I respect it, but strongly disagree.
Exciting 1st race at Aqueduct tomorrow. Who do you like?
I'm leaning 1,7....

Assuming nothing crazy happens with the draw...
My Derby 2 are Roadster and Tacticus.

Per Laffit Pincay Jr, Smith chose Omaha Beach for the Run for the Roses.

Chose the logical choice, imo. Great dilemma to have.

Florent Geroux gets Roadster; Manny Franco lands Spinoff..

Calls remain open on Cutting Humor (Pletcher), Country House (Mott) & Gray Magician (Miller)

Think it is a bad move on Smith's part regardless of who he feels is the better horse. Maybe Baffert does not care and will still use him on all of his live mounts but seems like a big risk.

Didn't Martin Garcia piss off Mr Baffert once? How did that work out?

Garcia is not Mike Smith. This will have no impact.

You are probably correct about that and certainly correct about Garcia and Smith.

as of right now.....I am liking these. Since Harvey and Toddy let me down I have to re-group. Will try to cut 1 or 2 before the race and try a few box ex and tri's....bbut that is subject to change.

5/4 (CD): KENTUCKY DERBY

1. Tacitus 150 (Mott/J. Ortiz) $610,000
2. Omaha Beach 137.5 (Mandella/Smith) $1,050,000
5. Roadster 100 (Baffert/Geroux) $636,000
8. Game Winner 85 (Baffert/Rosario) $1,810,000
11. Improbable 65 (Baffert/I. Ortiz) $589,520

.....or I could just bet every horse who isn't a Baffert or Pletcher entry which eliminates 5.

Looks like the hype is starting for By My Standards...Any thoughts on his pedigree? I really like this horse but am having a difficult time convincing myself that Goldencents can get a horse to run 10F. Don’t know much about A Jealous Woman. Probably just overthinking it.

My ranking right now looks something like:

1. Tacitus
2. Omaha Beach
3. Tax
4. Vekoma
5. Game Winner

I’ll narrow it down eventually. I might be the only person that really likes Tax.

From a 2013 press release:

Hard knocking A Jealous Woman comes off a game win over the course in the Megahertz Stakes on Jan. 19 and is at the top of her game at age seven. Sent to the sidelines in the spring of 2010 with a bowed tendon, trainer Francis Meza

“Right now, she's at her peak,” said Meza on Thursday morning. “She's at her best. Last Thursday (Feb. 7) she worked five furlongs on the grass in a bullet 59 flat with Brice (regular rider, Blanc) up. He always works her.”

Blessed with an abundance of speed, Blanc can place his mount close to, or on the lead. Owned by a pair of retired mailmen, Richard Reid and Nick Tamborrino, who race as the Three Cent Stable, A Jealous Woman has now banked $443,856 from a mark of 19-8-3-3.

A bit obscurely bred, but as a side note her fourth dam was Miss Musket, who got buried by Chris Evert the horse in a match race.

Country House to Prat; Anothertwistafate will await Preakness..

Derby Contenders breathe a sigh of relief...

I cant argue with you because of the quality of this field. Seems though running in races at Aqueduct doesn't mean much anymore. Could be another Giacomo type year.

Jon White's Projected Kentucky Derby Odds

As discussed yesterday; Pace quadrants with NTamm on Friday..

9-2 Omaha Beach
5-1 Roadster
6-1 Game Winner
6-1 Tacitus

10-1 Improbable
12-1 Maximum Security
15-1 Code of Honor
15-1 Vekoma

20-1 By My Standards
20-1 Tax
20-1 War of Will
20-1 Win Win Win

30-1 Country House
30-1 Cutting Humor
30-1 Haikal
30-1 Long Range Toddy
30-1 Plus Que Parfait
30-1 Spinoff

50-1 Gray Magician
50-1 Master Fencer

Yeah I bet they were afraid he’d nose them out for 15th.

He was 23rd on the list. He was never getting in anyway.

Interesting listening to Jon discuss his thinking for the lines. I could see Game Winner floating up a bit in price. Who is going to bet him at 6-1 at this point?

I probably would. I still think he’s the best 3 year old and neither of his starts this year have discouraged that thought. I think Baffert had a plan to have him peak for the Derby and even though Roadster beat him in the SA Derby, he was 4 wide for a long time and made first move, while Roadster drafted and made the last move. He’s won over the Churchill surface and while I hope you’re right that he drifts up in price, 6-1 seems fair.

Agreed. I'm on him at 6-1, so i'm definitely on him at anything higher.