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-   -   Santa Anita Showvivor contest (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=52694)

casp0555 02-01-2014 09:29 AM

2/1
 
Race 7

Artemis

Arletta 02-01-2014 10:53 AM

Sat 2/1
 
Race 5 ~ #3 Appealing Resume

bigrun 02-01-2014 12:44 PM

2/1

Race 7 - #1 Saintly Joan

mclem0822 02-01-2014 02:01 PM

Sat. 2/1/14
 
Race 7-#1 Saintly Joan

Good Luck All!

bigrun 02-01-2014 02:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mclem0822 (Post 963398)
Race 7-#1 Saintly Joan

Good Luck All!

Copycat:D...I wish you the best of luck:$:...Last 5 days i've been chasing 15-1 or better shots...ain't caught one yet:zz:...i'm due:D

mclem0822 02-01-2014 05:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bigrun (Post 963431)
Copycat:D...I wish you the best of luck:$:...Last 5 days i've been chasing 15-1 or better shots...ain't caught one yet:zz:...i'm due:D

Hunch play for my late mother-in-law, hope she's smiling down on us.

bigrun 02-01-2014 06:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mclem0822 (Post 963463)
Hunch play for my late mother-in-law, hope she's smiling down on us.

That's my daughter's mother-in-law's name also...but no soup for us today..maybe tomorrow..

casp0555 02-02-2014 07:49 AM

2/2
 
Your Selection for Sunday, February 2nd:
2
Race 7

#2 Footbridge (KY)
Jockey: Mike E. Smith
M/L: 6/1

Arletta 02-02-2014 09:42 AM

Sun 2/2
 
Race 5 ~ #4 Moscato Girl

bigrun 02-02-2014 09:48 AM

2/2

Race 5 - #7 Schmaltzy

ironprospect 02-02-2014 01:46 PM

2014-02-02 - Race 4 - #4 Secret Circle (KY)

Arletta 02-02-2014 02:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ironprospect (Post 963576)
2014-02-02 - Race 4 - #4 Secret Circle (KY)

Live this horse and hope he wins for you today..worked in a bullet 58 prepping for this race.

Arletta 02-06-2014 10:26 AM

Thurs 2/6
 
Race 5 ~ #4 Moonlight Stroll

casp0555 02-06-2014 11:31 AM

Race 8 #1 Los Borrachos

mclem0822 02-06-2014 11:57 AM

Thurs. 2/6/14
 
Race 5-#7 Lovely Instinct (KY)

Good Luck All!

bigrun 02-06-2014 02:00 PM

2/6


Race 8 - #6 Elle Street

casp0555 02-07-2014 10:25 AM

Your Selection for Friday, February 7th:
4
Race 2

#4 Bob Consultation (CA)
Jockey: Tyler Baze
M/L: 4/1

mclem0822 02-07-2014 01:27 PM

Friday 2/7
 
Race 5-#9 Friendswith K Mill

Good Luck All!

Arletta 02-07-2014 01:34 PM

Fr1 2/7
 
Race 7 ~ 6 Euroclydon

bigrun 02-07-2014 02:07 PM

2/7


Race 5 - #8 Setthebigboysfree

Arletta 02-07-2014 03:08 PM

Is it just me? Or is there like NO excitement to this contest what-so-ever.

Boring....

Arletta 02-07-2014 03:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by casp0555 (Post 964180)
Your Selection for Friday, February 7th:
4
Race 2

#4 Bob Consultation (CA)
Jockey: Tyler Baze
M/L: 4/1

Way to go! :tro:

casp0555 02-07-2014 04:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Arletta (Post 964277)
Is it just me? Or is there like NO excitement to this contest what-so-ever.

Boring....

thx Laura....my sentiments exactly. I hope SA realizes this mediocrity and changes for the next time. BLAH!

bigrun 02-07-2014 04:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Arletta (Post 964277)
Is it just me? Or is there like NO excitement to this contest what-so-ever.

Boring....

It's not you, it's me, it's ALWAYS me!..George Costanza..

Last three picks are 15-1 or better, only chance for me is to get the highest win payoff:eek:..I have a better chance in the electric chair:D

casp0555 02-08-2014 07:54 AM

2/8
 
Your Selection for Saturday, February 8th:
4
Race 1

#4 Yankee Rebel (KY)
Jockey: Rafael Bejarano
M/L: 8/5

GLA!

bigrun 02-08-2014 11:29 AM

2/8

Race 7

#5 Power Foot

Arletta 02-08-2014 11:55 AM

Sat 2/8
 
Race 2 ~ #4 Act

mclem0822 02-08-2014 01:27 PM

Sat. 2/8
 
Race 7-#4 Utopian

Good Luck All!

Dunbar 02-09-2014 08:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Arletta (Post 964277)
Is it just me? Or is there like NO excitement to this contest what-so-ever.

Boring....

That was my reaction, too. When 22 people tied for the high win payout ($132.40), it removed my last bit of interest. (I'd been picking 50-1 shots up to then, after my initial show streak ended.)

Here are the current leaders in the other categories:

Show Streak: 26/0 (meaning picked 26 in a row but current streak is "0")

Win Streak: 11/1 (no streak of 7 or more is currently alive)

Total Wins: 19 (3 players tied with 19, 9 others with 18 wins)

Total Places: 2 players tied with 14

None of these look attractive. Take the Show Streak, for example.

Say you pick horses that have a 90% chance to show. Then your chance of putting together the 27 race streak you'd need to overtake the leader is 0.9^27 = 6%. Even if each of your picks had a 95% chance to show, you'd only have a 25% chance of picking 27 in a row, and you'd probably have the company of others with 27.

Trying to pick 12 winners in a row is probably even harder. Say each of your picks has a 70% chance to win. Then picking 12 in a row would have slightly more than a 1% chance of success. If each pick has an 80% chance to win (1-9 shots?!), you'd still only have a 7% chance of picking 12 in a row.

--Dunbar

Arletta 02-09-2014 11:36 AM

Sun 2/9
 
Race 3 ~ #6 Faith Hope Love :{>:

mclem0822 02-09-2014 12:06 PM

Sun. 2/9
 
Race 6-#6 Tap The Magic (KY)

Good Luck All!

bigrun 02-09-2014 02:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dunbar (Post 964620)
That was my reaction, too. When 22 people tied for the high win payout ($132.40), it removed my last bit of interest. (I'd been picking 50-1 shots up to then, after my initial show streak ended.)

Here are the current leaders in the other categories:

Show Streak: 26/0 (meaning picked 26 in a row but current streak is "0")

Win Streak: 11/1 (no streak of 7 or more is currently alive)

Total Wins: 19 (3 players tied with 19, 9 others with 18 wins)

Total Places: 2 players tied with 14

None of these look attractive. Take the Show Streak, for example.

Say you pick horses that have a 90% chance to show. Then your chance of putting together the 27 race streak you'd need to overtake the leader is 0.9^27 = 6%. Even if each of your picks had a 95% chance to show, you'd only have a 25% chance of picking 27 in a row, and you'd probably have the company of others with 27.

Trying to pick 12 winners in a row is probably even harder. Say each of your picks has a 70% chance to win. Then picking 12 in a row would have slightly more than a 1% chance of success. If each pick has an 80% chance to win (1-9 shots?!), you'd still only have a 7% chance of picking 12 in a row.

--Dunbar

Been chasing 20-1 shots past few weeks figure win payout only shot...Today checked the whole leaderboard and saw couple $132.40, holy crap need to find a 70-1 shot:eek:..I :wf:wf

bigrun 02-09-2014 02:47 PM

My pick today, made before i saw the win payoffs...

2/9
Race 6 - #5 Melanistic

Maybe after today i'll pick 3-5 shots and hope for 30 in a row:D

Dunbar 02-13-2014 08:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bigrun (Post 964716)
Been chasing 20-1 shots past few weeks figure win payout only shot...Today checked the whole leaderboard and saw couple $132.40, holy crap need to find a 70-1 shot:eek:..I :wf:wf


But if you're lucky enough to hit it, you'll at best be splitting the prize money with 20 other players. Even though it takes very little time every day to look through the entries and pick a random 50-1 shot, it's still not worth it to win $50 (after splitting).

--Dunbar

Arletta 02-13-2014 11:40 AM

Thurs 2/13
 
Race 6 ~ #1 Red N Black Attack

casp0555 02-13-2014 12:10 PM

chalk in the 2nd.....I think:rolleyes:

bigrun 02-13-2014 12:14 PM

2/13

Race 5

#7 Midnight Lady

mclem0822 02-13-2014 12:18 PM

Thurs. 2/13
 
Race 8-#5 Jackhammer


Good Luck All!

bigrun 02-13-2014 12:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dunbar (Post 965135)
But if you're lucky enough to hit it, you'll at best be splitting the prize money with 20 other players. Even though it takes very little time every day to look through the entries and pick a random 50-1 shot, it's still not worth it to win $50 (after splitting).

--Dunbar

Hey bud, you mean the guy leading with $132.40 win payout isn't #1? I haven't read all the rules but assumed winner takes all..So if i'm 19th i get $50?...shoot i'll accept that:$:..going back to picking 50-1 shots:D

bigrun 02-14-2014 10:42 AM

2/14

Race 4 - #4 Western Kitty


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