He bet on logical horses based on years of acute study of an imperfect game where wildstock and little people are the context of the wagering event. The derby and BC are perhaps the best wagering days of the year as so much money is wagered on hopefuless chances because they are either gray, blue , purple or look like aunt sue..

See you around BC when you will post about some other trillion to 1 shot that you thought was special..

And people wonder why narcotics are popular?

This will be debated for weeks no doubt, did 18 horses not show up or is it more logical to assume that 1 horse perhaps freaked in the race. Atleast in the case of Giacomo the pace and margin of the win is more readily explainable. Given there was no other route race to compare the final time with, I'm not going to come to any conclusions too quickly.

be open to learning something.

Borel kept his horse way back while the others sprinted out on a sloppy track. Then he gambled that he could slide along the rail.

He had a HUGE advantage in both Race Set-Up , and in Ground Loss

The horse certainly didn't run any better than musket man or chocolate candy
:wf:wf

MTB is a one run closer. i'd think even if he came in sporting a 20 point higher previous beyer, he'd have gotten mostly ignored. one run closers typically don't do well in a full derby field. it all came together for him. pretty amazing really.

They were just showing the "blimp shot" of the race on the local OTB show. As the field progressed down the backstretch, there were only three horses on the rail: Join in the Dance, who lasted a lot longer than expected; Hold Me Back, who made the only sustained middle move in the race; and Mine That Bird, who was advancing on the rail as the field approached the half mile pole. On the turn the only other horse that dropped down to the rail was Atomic Rain, a horse that even the rail could not assist.

I didn't play POTN, I understand a price and know that only a douche nozzle touts a horse for 2 weeks watches him run18th then says he had the impossible 50-1 shot but only could use him 3rd or 4th. But of course the race was an anomaly:rolleyes:

The pace wasn't that fast

Thats what makes it even more amazing. He had never been a one run closer prior to this race. He had always been within 3 lengths of the lead by the halfway call in all of his races except his maiden...even in the BC race where he got thumped.

True, RNS was just silly. He and his owner Dr. Livingston or whatever his name was got alot of PR before the race. In this case I think this was more an extreme case, I understand the alot of non regular fans bet the derby, but to bet him down to 50-1, that is alot of money. Who bet him? Certainly no one on this board did, if so I didn't see anyone even remotely tout him.

A horse who, bad as he was, on paper looked easily as good as the winner. Why would the rail catapult one and not the other?

I'm just not buying it. Don't get me wrong, I don't think the rail hurt, and maybe it helped a little, but the winner RAN......and that's the biggest factor. It was the horse....not the rail and not the rider. Not a criticism of Borel, who is a low percentage jockey, that probably hurts more horses than he helps with his rail riding nonsense, and his act worked yesterday, but let's also not pretend that the rider got in a horse suit and masqueraded himself into the winner's circle.

i was going by what his trainer said, that the horse makes one move.

having a horse for 3rd or 4th is not "having him".

1st and 2nd is a different world from 3rd and 4th in the derby.

the race was an anamoly. anyone can see that who watches the video in the context of this years 3yo season, or even in the context of this decades derbys.

Friesan Fire looked MUCH the best to me in my handicapping. Supposedly his injuries and rough trip hurt him, I haven't had a chance to review his trip yet. I was completely surprised that he didn't win, much less finish in the money. The reason a horseplayer only bets between 2 and 10% of his bankroll per race is that any single race can be an anamoly. It is the long haul that matters.

I'll gladly admit that Friesan Fire was my confident selection. And equally so that Pioneer of the Nile wasn't used 1st or 2nd other than coverage wagers.

It definitely wasn't a "KING OF THE WORLD !one!!!oneone!!!" moment.

Im done with 20 horse fields.....

I thought you were supposed to be the expert on race set up.

I guess the horse masqueraded as a trips expert and held himself wayyyy off the pace and then gambled that there would be room on the rail and closed inside.


of course the idea that the rail was some kind of conveyor belt is ridiculous

the question is whether they went to fast up front opening the race for a closer and whether he saved ground.

I thought the rail was the place to be the entire day, not just the Derby. Considering that Borel was able to move up from last on the rail, except for having to leave it to go around Advice, I believe, for the most part, the other horses weren't running on it.


Race 1: Raposa, gate to wire, rail.

Race 2: Riley Tucker, gate to wire, rail.

Race 3: Luv Gov, closed up the inside.

Race 4: Glenwood Canyon, stalking trip from the rail.

Race 6: Accredit, gate to wire, rail.


The best effort yesterday off the rail, in my opinion, was Just Jenda, who ran out of gas late, beaten by Four Gifts, who came up the rail.

I hear you, and you have certainly analyzed it FAR better than I have, I just think it detracts a bit from the winner's " performance " to suggest ( not that you were ) that it was a rail driven performance. I had the same discussion with Beyer this morning....and he is on your side.

Didn't this horse come off the rail before the turn?

Also, the winner of the 12th, I believe, had an inside trip as well.

I'm not sure that we really disagree that much. I'm not saying that Mine That Bird won the race BECAUSE of a rail bias. A bias is not going to make winners out of all horses, only those that run and are able to make use of the advantageous conditions. Mine That Bird likely won because he liked the off going, and he got a fortuitous trip, and there was not a lot of running going on from the other 18 starters in the field, and the rail was the place to be.

When I conclude that the rail was the place to be yesterday, just take a look at the chart comments on the winners of the dirt races: Raposa "set pace along the inside"; Riley Tucker "set pace along the inside"; Luv Gov "saved ground" and won with an inside-out move; Glenwood Canyon "close up while racing inside"; Accredit "rated vying for the lead near the rail" with My Pal Charlie the only closer to make up ground late - again inside; Four Gifts "angled in" during the first furlong and also won with and inside-out trip. I could go on, but I think you get the point.

If I were looking for overlays for future races, I would be looking at yesterday's card and trying to pinpoint horses with wide trips on the dirt course for future reference.

I'm with you.

Absolutely!

....great point, you know we would........it would be funny as hell if the bird wins the preakness and is shooting 4 the triple crown..

:rolleyes:

It was odd seeing the crew pulling 2x4s with sand bags on them over the track . This track was not formful. At least not with 20 horses entered . MTB jumped up on it and shocked .

which is why i think it's funny that the POTN fans are pointing at the race as some indication of what he can do. evidently it proves his prowess, but no one else's.

You do know that the guy gives his opinions on a daily basis, right?

Why in the world, unless you have a personal agenda with BTW, would you care what someone plays in a race that you yourself called a toss?

If the race was in your words "a toss", "nothing like the kentucky derby", "like a mountaineer claiming race", "very unusual IYO"
why in ****s name do you care what that guy picked?

you already answered your question.

:tro:

its very rarely speed and not inside, the two are related.

yes he did, no need to look at facts like that.

So we can assume that these both these horses would have
been ahead of the rest of the field by oh, 8 or 9
lengths, running in a quagmire. We knew before the
race these horses had some crossbreeding with
amphibians.

No huge ifs and buts here.
No wild assumptions.
Before they ran this thing, it was clear these
horses where at least 8 lengths better than the
rest.

Gotcha.

People did listen to Orson Wells on the radio also.
So I guess this is a joke.

Thanks Danzig. I did know about the prior Mandella connection. My question is more about the brisnet.com past performance chart in the day or two prior to the draw.

Maybe I'm misinterpreting, but I believe it showed Mandella as the current trainer of Mine That Bird.



Here's the link if it still works:







http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2009/si...es/dby4-23.pdf