Derby Trail Forums - First 2009 March Madness thread

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Quote:

Originally Posted by horseofcourse

Xavier made the elite 8 in '04 as did St Joe's. Xavier proved they were an excellent team at the end of '04 when they beat St Joes in the A10 tourney...Xavier took out 2 and 3 seeds Texas and Mississippi State and payed a very close game in the regional final against Duke. With what Xavier did in the NCAA tourney in '04 it is hard to argue they didn't just flat out beat St Joe's in the A10 tourney.

This is true. However, at the time, Xavier was FAR FROM a tournament lock. They were 10-9 at one point in the season before going on a tear starting with beating their crosstown rivals Cincinnati, but despite that huge win their profile was shaky because of some bad losses and a very moderate record. They HAD to win that game or sweat out the bubble to even get in the tournament at 20-11. I watched almost every St. Joe's game that year and they hardly even showed up for the game.

I stand by my statement that the A-10 is notorious for having their top seeds flame out when they are locks. I would do it too to get multiple bids.

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski

Of course Xavier was not a lock in '04, in fact they probably weren't in at all if they didn't win the A10 tourney that year...I think that played more a role in their beating St Joe's than St Joes losing on purpose.

Give me 5th place West Virginia and 6th place Syracuse over any 5th and 6th place teams in any other league. MAN these teams are good, I'm fired up to go to the Garden tomorrow.

Quote:

Originally Posted by horseofcourse

I think you're missing my point... there's a HUGE financial incentive for the league if the top seed is a lock for an at-large to lose in their conference tournament... and 95% of the time the seed hit doesn't matter... and the A-10 is notorious for having head-scratching results in their conference tournament, even if you don't think my '04 example makes sense.

On that sentiment, Gonzaga did a disservice to the WCC by steamrolling St. Mary's in the final the other day.

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski

I get what you are saying and it makes sense from the perspective of the league that they would want that to happen. But not from the player perspective. You can't tell these players to go out and not give it their best for the benefit of the league. It just doesn't work that way. For one, I think you'd be surprised to learn that for a lot of big time schools, the number one goal of the season is to be the conference champion. Not saying that they don't want to win the national title but the conference championship is a much more realistic goal. These schools in your conference are who you are recruiting against and it's a big deal to be able to say that every year, you have a strong chance to be conference champion and be in the running for national champ. I don't think this can be underestimated. Take a situation like in the ACC with Duke, UNC, NC St, and Wake all being so close to each other. These players constantly see each other in the offseason. Bragging rights are huge and you have them when you are conference champ. Same thing up in the Big East where a lot of the prime players come from the area between NY and DC. Florida or Kansas can win the national championship but that conference championship is very important in the regional areas.

Stunning Big 12 report:

Texas ATM, up 50-29 at halftime,
lost to Texas Tech 88-83. A bench player
scored a Big 12 tournament record
43 points, including a stretch where
he scored 29 in a row. Turgeon
says his team just quit. And they
should not be thinking about any
tournaments right now.

If ATM does not get in because of
at large bids getting scarce, would
this surprise after a loss for a team
that was not a shoo-in?

Aggies proving what Aggies are.

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Stop it. A&M is in.

You need to inform Mark Turgeon.

Quote:

Originally Posted by pgardn

You need to inform Mark Turgeon.

All he said is they're not as comfortable as they would've been with a win last night. He says he still thinks they're in, and they are.

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

All he said is they're not as comfortable as they would've been with a win last night. He says he still thinks they're in, and they are.

Every place I look at has them in.
As is Oklahoma St.

But it does not mean I have to like it.
Dammit.

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

All he said is they're not as comfortable as they would've been with a win last night. He says he still thinks they're in, and they are.

Agree... they are a 9-10 seed and comfortably in. Texas Tech isn't that bad of a loss that they would fall 8 spots on the bubble S-curve.

Today's news... Miami, OUT. Providence, OUT. VT, step in the right direction but not there yet. One more win would probably do it. They are only 18-13 but they have taken some brutally tough losses and that must be factored in IMO.

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski

Agree... they are a 9-10 seed and comfortably in. Texas Tech isn't that bad of a loss that they would fall 8 spots on the bubble S-curve.

Today's news... Miami, OUT. Providence, OUT. VT, step in the right direction but not there yet. One more win would probably do it. They are only 18-13 but they have taken some brutally tough losses and that must be factored in IMO.

It may not be a bad loss but the way they lost
is inexcusable. And most of the places I look
agree with the 9 or 10 seed.

Northwestern officially out

Quote:

Originally Posted by pgardn

It may not be a bad loss but the way they lost
is inexcusable. And most of the places I look
agree with the 9 or 10 seed.

The way they lost? The kid scored 29 in a row and couldn't miss, and that was the only way in hell Texas Tech could've won. How is that inexcusable? How many teams would've won that game?

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski

Minnesota has to be in now, and Michigan is up 16 early. If they hold on, they're in too.

I am officially off of the Kansas train. :o

Quote:

Originally Posted by declansharbor

I am officially off of the Kansas train. :o

Be careful. Baylor is one of the season's biggest underachievers, with a bunch of seniors who don't want to go home. I wouldn't be shocked to see them go on to win the Big XII Tournament.

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

The way they lost? The kid scored 29 in a row and couldn't miss, and that was the only way in hell Texas Tech could've won. How is that inexcusable? How many teams would've won that game?

Are you frggn kidding me.
Let a bench player score 29 in a row.

HOW ABOUT COVERING HIM.
IS THAT A NOVEL IDEA?

Force someone else to shoot the ball.

Texas ATM quit in that game.
They stopped playing.
Did you watch the game?

It was streaming, you could have caught it.
The question to ask is how many teams would
have lost that game? It was 50-29 at halftime
for Oden's sake.

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Be careful. Baylor is one of the season's biggest underachievers, with a bunch of seniors who don't want to go home. I wouldn't be shocked to see them go on to win the Big XII Tournament.

I would be very surprised.

Quote:

Originally Posted by pgardn

I would be very surprised.

Why? Did Baylor suddenly forget how to play basketball in the past year? You rail every day about how terrible the Big XII is, but now you'd be shocked to see an underachieving Tournament team from last year win two games.

And I'm done discussing A&M with you. You obviously hate them and can't be impartial. That's fine, but they're in the Tournament. Deal with it.

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski

Monday update.
LOCKS
ACC: UNC, Duke, FSU, Clemson, Wake Forest, Boston College
Big East: Pitt, UConn, Louisville, Marquette, Villanova, Syracuse, West Virginia
Big Ten: Michigan State, Purdue, Illinois, Ohio State
Big XII: Kansas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma State
Pac-10: UCLA, Washington, Arizona St, Cal
SEC: LSU, Tennessee
Mountain West: Utah, BYU
A-10: Xavier, Dayton
Conference USA: Memphis
Horizon: Butler
WCC: Gonzaga

So that's 36 teams in 11 conferences. If all of the conferences are won by teams in the above list, plus 20 conferences with an autobid but no lock, that leaves 9 spots open.
*Texas (which should have been there anyways), BC, Ohio State, Oklahoma State, & Texas A&M move in to LOCK status.
*Creighton drops back into the at-large pool after losing in the MVC Semis.

ACC:
Maryland- As usual, they found a way to lose a game that they had to have, this time to UVA on Saturday. Now 7-9 in the ACC which means they have to win a few in the ACC Tournament to feel safe. OUT
Virginia Tech- 17-13 overall, 7-9 in the ACC, 2-8 against the RPI top 50, and 6-11 against the RPI top 100. That's a tough sell. Loser of VT-Miami is definitely OUT, but they are on the wrong side anyways right now.
Miami- Back in the picture because of the soft bubble, but as stated above the VT-Miami game is essentially a play-in game for the NCAA's... and the winner still might have to win another game in the ACC Tournament. OUT

Big East:
Providence- MUST win their quarterfinal round game, and might need to beat #1 seed Louisville in the semis. OUT at the moment.

Big Ten:
Wisconsin- Keeping them here but barring a disastrous performance in the first round of the Big Ten tournament they should be fine, even with a loss. IN
Minnesota- Tough loss on Saturday after being up 12, would have moved them off this line, but now needs to win a game in the Big Ten Tournament. IN, for the moment.
Michigan- Halfway home to a bid based on the scenario I laid out last time. As long as they beat Iowa in the first round they are IN. 6-9 against the top 50 and 10-11 against the top 100, even if the road record blows.
Penn State- Ugh. I was rooting for them to get back into the Tourney but you CANNOT lose to a team like Iowa at this point of the season. Beat Illinois 2X and split with Purdue, Minny & Michigan, is that enough with that horrific nonconference schedule?? Not right now... OUT
Northwestern- They almost got the win they needed in Columbus but not quite there. Needs to make a run to the Big Ten championship game. OUT

Big XII:
* Oklahoma State moves into LOCK status because everyone around them keeps collapsing, and they just feel like a tournament team, unlike a lot of these other bums. I don't know for certain if they can afford a loss to Iowa State in the first round but given the way things are right now around them they probably can and still get in. Texas A&M earned it the hard way with a clinching win against Mizzou.

Pac-10:
Arizona- Does a win at home against #105 Stanford get you in? No, but it certainly cures the blues temporarily. Got a tough matchup with Az State in the first round and might need to win that one. OUT, for now.

SEC:
South Carolina- No bad losses but no real good wins either. The 10-6 record in the SEC is extremely hollow, but it's still a precedent- no SEC team has ever missed the tournament with a 10-6 league record that I can ever remember. Should be IN barring a horrific loss to either Georgia or Mississippi State in the SEC quarters.
Florida- They move back into the picture because everyone else sucks. OUT for now but that Washington win is looking better and better. Must beat Arkansas and Auburn, and 24-10 would be tough to ignore.

Mountain West:
* Two of the three teams that were in the picture last Friday will make it and they will work it out in Vegas this week.
UNLV- had a chance to lock it up and in the process, knock out SDSU but didn't get it done. They get a second crack in the quarterfinals of the Mtn West tournament at home- the winner is IN, the loser is OUT.
New Mexico- 12-4 in a tough conference is tough to ignore but man have they flown under the radar. I think they are just IN at this point (as in, the last team in) based on tying for the league title, but shouldn't lose to Wyoming in the quarters or there will be a lot of sweating in Albequerque this week.

Missouri Valley:
Creighton- if they had won the Illinois State game in the semis they would have locked up a bid but now they have to sweat. I think they're on the right side of the bubble right now with their 9-5 record against the top 100 and sharing the league title with UNI but certainly are playing with fire. IN

Others:
There are two bids left under the assumption that the Mountain West has a knockout game, none of the ACC under .500 teams are worthy, and UF doesn't make a run in the SEC Tournament. Rhode Island took a loss they really couldn't afford on Saturday against UMass. Right now, I'd give the first slot to St. Mary's if they need it, followed by Siena if they need it, followed by Utah State if they need it, followed by Rhode Island or Temple.

Thursday update.
LOCKS
ACC: UNC, Duke, FSU, Clemson, Wake Forest, Boston College
Big East: Pitt, UConn, Louisville, Marquette, Villanova, Syracuse, West Virginia
Big Ten: Michigan State, Purdue, Illinois, Ohio State
Big XII: Kansas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma State
Pac-10: UCLA, Washington, Arizona St, Cal
SEC: LSU, Tennessee
Mountain West: Utah, BYU
A-10: Xavier, Dayton
Conference USA: Memphis
Horizon: Butler, CLEVELAND STATE
WCC: GONZAGA

So that's 37 teams in 11 conferences. If all of the conferences are won by teams in the above list, plus 20 conferences with an autobid but no lock, that leaves 8 spots open.

Changes Today:
* Miami loses to VT, out of the running. NIT bound.
* Providence loses to Louisville, out of the running. NIT bound.
* Northwestern loses to Minnesota, out of the running. NIT bound.

ACC:
Maryland- As usual, they found a way to lose a game that they had to have, this time to UVA on Saturday. Now 7-9 in the ACC which means they have to win a few in the ACC Tournament to feel safe. OUT
Virginia Tech- 18-13 overall, 8-9 in the ACC, 2-8 against the RPI top 50, and 6-11 against the RPI top 100 after the Miami win. That's still a tough sell. OUT, but moving in the right direction.

Big East:

Big Ten:
Wisconsin- Keeping them here but barring a disastrous performance in the first round of the Big Ten tournament they should be fine, even with a loss. IN
Minnesota- Gets a victory over Northwestern in the first round. I think they are safe now. IN
Michigan- About to beat Iowa in the first round, they are IN. 6-9 against the top 50 and 10-11 against the top 100, even if the road record blows.
Penn State- Ugh. I was rooting for them to get back into the Tourney but you CANNOT lose to a team like Iowa at this point of the season. Beat Illinois 2X and split with Purdue, Minny & Michigan, is that enough with that horrific nonconference schedule?? Not right now... OUT

Big XII:
* Oklahoma State moves into LOCK status because everyone around them keeps collapsing, and they just feel like a tournament team, unlike a lot of these other bums. I don't know for certain if they can afford a loss to Iowa State in the first round but given the way things are right now around them they probably can and still get in. Texas A&M earned it the hard way with a clinching win against Mizzou.

Pac-10:
Arizona- Does a win at home against #105 Stanford get you in? No, but it certainly cures the blues temporarily. Got a tough matchup with Az State in the first round and might need to win that one. OUT, for now.

SEC:
South Carolina- No bad losses but no real good wins either. The 10-6 record in the SEC is extremely hollow, but it's still a precedent- no SEC team has ever missed the tournament with a 10-6 league record that I can ever remember. Should be IN barring a horrific loss to either Georgia or Mississippi State in the SEC quarters.
Florida- They move back into the picture because everyone else sucks. OUT for now but that Washington win is looking better and better. Must beat Arkansas and Auburn, and 24-10 would be tough to ignore.

Mountain West:
* Two of the three teams that were in the picture last Friday will make it and they will work it out in Vegas this week.
UNLV- had a chance to lock it up and in the process, knock out SDSU but didn't get it done. They get a second crack in the quarterfinals of the Mtn West tournament at home- the winner is IN, the loser is OUT.
New Mexico- 12-4 in a tough conference is tough to ignore but man have they flown under the radar. I think they are just IN at this point (as in, the last team in) based on tying for the league title, but shouldn't lose to Wyoming in the quarters or there will be a lot of sweating in Albequerque this week.

Missouri Valley:
Creighton- if they had won the Illinois State game in the semis they would have locked up a bid but now they have to sweat. I think they're on the right side of the bubble right now with their 9-5 record against the top 100 and sharing the league title with UNI but certainly are playing with fire. IN

Others:
There are one bid left under the assumption that the Mountain West has a knockout game, none of the ACC under .500 teams are worthy, and UF doesn't make a run in the SEC Tournament. Rhode Island took a loss they really couldn't afford on Saturday against UMass. Right now, I'd give the slot to St. Mary's, because I'm convinced they are worthy with a healthy Patty Mills and they have one shot more to prove he's healthy. Their resume is awfully thin, however, and are my last team in right now.

With Michigan's easy win, 7 bids are still available by my count. An Arizona win over Arizona State would trim it to 6.

Nice comeback by Marquette. Should be a good finish.

Nice shot on teh drive Scottie. :rolleyes:

Quote:

Originally Posted by declansharbor

Nice comeback by Marquette. Should be a good finish.

Nice shot on teh drive Scottie. :rolleyes:

What an ending. McNeal $hit the bed on defense when it counted most.

Texas needs to hold on, a loss by them would throw the Big 12 into chaos mode. Moving K-State back up to the bubble could drop all the 9-7s back down to the bubble.

I really only see 5 spots open and one win by South Carolina would take one of them. That leaves Florida, Arizona, Penn State, New Mexico, and the winner of UNLV/SD St fighting for four spots. Arizona looks like they aren't taking their opportunity to wrap a spot up so they will be sweating it out. Of course Temple or Rhode Island could reduce that to three spots or an Auburn/Virginia Tech/K-State/USC/Maryland/Miss St could move themselves into contention with a deep tourney run although none seem likely to do so.

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

With Michigan's easy win, 7 bids are still available by my count. An Arizona win over Arizona State would trim it to 6.

Agree, as stated above. I'm very close to moving Michigan to lock status after they stomped Iowa which would leave 7 spots available. Their big wins and SOS trump their terrible road record.

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski

Agree, as stated above. I'm very close to moving Michigan to lock status after they stomped Iowa which would leave 7 spots available. Their big wins and SOS trump their terrible road record.

What two teams that I didn't mention don't you consider locks yet?

Quote:

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

What two teams that I didn't mention don't you consider locks yet?

Wisconsin and Minnesota I guess?

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski

Thursday update.
.
Penn State- Ugh. I was rooting for them to get back into the Tourney but you CANNOT lose to a team like Iowa at this point of the season. Beat Illinois 2X and split with Purdue, Minny & Michigan, is that enough with that horrific nonconference schedule?? Not right now... OUT

they split with Purdue, Minny & Michigan and also the big one you're leaving out...Michigan State...that ought to count for smething. if they beat indiana and play very competetively with Purdue, even if they don't win, they're in. obviously if they choke away the lead and lose to INdiana they're as far out of it as NJIT (whom they did beat by the way!!!...for the life of me with wins like that out of conference I can't figure out why everyone is ragging on their out of conference schedule!!).

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

It would not be 2 games.
It would be four.
Any team having to play so many games in
a row is going to be at a disadvantage, No?
And especially a team playing as poorly as Baylor
had been compared to the beginning of the year.

And you are correct. I do not like ATM as a team this year.
If you actually watched the Tech game you would
understand what I mean by an excusable game to lose.

Holy chit...

Syracuse good or not?
Jeeezzzzz.

Quote:

Originally Posted by pgardn

Holy chit...

Syracuse good or not?
Jeeezzzzz.

Didnt have it off. By a gash hair. OT

This is great stuff. I hope they play all night.

Nice shot selection Flynn. :rolleyes:

If that play was drawn up to go down like that at the end of 2nd OT, that's embarrassing.

Would anyone believe that I left that game 5 minutes in to the 2nd half? Just got home and to see the end of the 2nd ot.

Quote:

Originally Posted by MaTH716

Would anyone believe that I left that game 5 minutes in to the 2nd half? Just got home and to see the end of the 2nd ot.

Wrong move Matt. Sorry.

An equally laughable shot with time winding down in 3rd OT by UCONN.

Quote:

Originally Posted by declansharbor

Wrong move Matt. Sorry.

An equally laughable shot with time winding down in 3rd OT by UCONN.

Long day, Long night. There's no way I would have made the whole thing. If I was still there, I am looking at the earliest, 2:30 at being home. Then being up at 6:30, I can't do that kind of crap anymore. I'm happy watching the end in front of my TV.

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

This is great stuff. I hope they play all night.

:D got your wish! What a game!

Quote:

Originally Posted by MaTH716

Would anyone believe that I left that game 5 minutes in to the 2nd half? Just got home and to see the end of the 2nd ot.

I left with Syracuse up 7 and 2 minutes to play. Figured I wasn't missing anything but fouling in the last minute :rolleyes:

Watched on the way home on my phone. Got home at the end of the 3rd OT. Couldn't stay up any longer. What a game!!!