Originally Posted by ateamstupid

This is the argument of everybody who dislikes him.. "He um.. He uh.. He has no shot!" :p

Originally Posted by Scav

I agree that the no shot argument is weak but Andy did have some viable points, I would like to hear why you think he has a shot.

I know you are a sheet user, and looking at his right now, it screams regression if you ask me. And a regression means he aint within the top 5 becuase there are several progressing horses in this race, more so then any year I can remember, they might be slow, but they are progressing

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

This is the argument of everybody who dislikes him.. "He um.. He uh.. He has no shot!" :p

Originally Posted by miraja2

Well, they went 22.76 and 45.83 in the Florida Derby. That isn't exactly crawling.
He had a very favorable post and a great trip that day, but despite that (and despite the fact that he seemed to be running his guts out in the stretch), he didn't close an inch. The pace was fast enough that day that the horses who were second, third, fourth, and fifth at a 1/4 and a 1/2, ALL finished seventh or worse. It wasn't like they were cheap speed either. Fierce Wind and Elysium Fields were two of the favorites. Meanwhile, the horses coming from off the pace (Tomcito, Cool Gator, Majestic Warrior) ALL finished in the top half. Big Brown obviously ran a very nice race that day, but given the early pace, I have to think that if Smooth Air was really a top-notch two-turn horse, he would have made up SOME ground, or at least have done something in the stretch other than look completely spent.
His previous race in Tampa (the Sam Davis) showed me the same thing. Big Truck simply ran by him at the end.
To me he is a closer that just flattens out in the stretch when asked to go two-turns, and I don't think the increase in distance to 10f can do anything but hurt him.

Originally Posted by miraja2

Oh yeah busted....that is the only argument I have made.
Of course, on page three of this ridiculous thread...I said this:



But I guess that sort of analysis doesn't count when compared to the overpowering "fitness" argument of his supporters.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

The argument for Smooth Air ( from what I can tell around here ) is, number one, he has a nice trainer, and number two, this Derby field stinks.

But, it's ( apparently ) the dissenters that can't back up their opinion.

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

His internal fractions were pretty quick in the Florida Derby, so I disagree that the race was set up for him. I agree though that the "fitness" argument is fairly silly. If all it took to get a ten-furlong horse was putting some long works in him, then I'm pretty sure every trainer would be at it.

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

The way I see it, in this terrible field, you should have to prove why somebody DOESN'T have a shot, and no one's done that with Smooth Air.

I've said why I like him, but if you wanna hear it again..

He's got figures comparable to anything anybody else (except for Big Brown and Pyro) has run, he's got a fine distance pedigree, and he's got ideal tactical speed. His small stature concerns me slightly, but at 25-1+, I honestly don't understand how anybody can be tossing him.

As for me being a "sheet user", I use the TG numbers, but I'm not like you in that I don't think there are these rigid rules for what's going to happen in the next race based on a horse's "pattern". Most of the time, I don't really care much what a horse's "pattern" is, I just want to see if he/she has run fast enough to contend. Smooth Air, according to Beyers and TG figs, has indisputably done so.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

The argument for Smooth Air ( from what I can tell around here ) is, number one, he has a nice trainer, and number two, this Derby field stinks.
But, it's ( apparently ) the dissenters that can't back up their opinion.

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

anyone else tired of Big Brown, Smooth Air, and TomCito?

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

However, in a nutshell, while Smooth Air is a nice and talented horse, what he showed inarguably is that he will not get better as the distances get longer. He had an absolute dream trip and set-up in the Florida Derby, made what looked to be a winning move on the turn, and then had absolutely no finish. The only reason he finished second was that there were no horses of quality ( besides the winner ) competing that day. Any that may be better than him, Elysium Fields comes to mind, did not fire at all. Essentially he was second by default....just as Tomcito was third for the same reasons. Look how many were fooled by him.

Originally Posted by miraja2

Well if you think that argument is silly - and I agree - what the hell DO you like about him?

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

anyone else tired of Big Brown, Smooth Air, and TomCito?

Originally Posted by slotdirt

I am starting my 'Recapturetheglory' thread pretty soon.