Yup, the others were 1932 and 1944.

Invasor, an extremely good horse but not a GREAT horse, has demonstrated an ability to race against his better nature twice and still be successful. He did this in the Pimlico Special and the Whitney, so that while neither performance in result was remarkable, each showed that he had even more ability than a simple win in those races demonstrated.

What you are missing is that premature moves on the backstretch, especially into hot paces ( that collapse as the pace did in the Whitney ), almost certainly result in disaster. For Invasor the results were not only not disasterous they were the best they could be. This is what stamped him as a top horse...and frankly why many of us felt he was easily Bernardini's equal going into the Classic.

These horses are not machines and most have preferred running styles. Invasor was able to perform extremely well, at the highest levels, while racing AGAINST his strengths. When he finally got a situation where the race played into his hands he won the BC Classic against the mistakenly invincible, and supposed superstar, Bernardini.

Exactly what I was about to say.

PointGiven, you are seeing obvious trouble, and overrating it, while failing to see trips that are disadventageous....most likely because they aren't slapping you across the face. In this game you will never make money running with the herd and seeing everything as others see it.

This is almost as good as your quote during the Pick 6 thread. Kasept needs to make a "fabulous quotes" thread for the Charles Hatton Reading Room.

It was no coincidence that there were six horses near the pace and the five other than Invasor wound up the last five to cross the finish line. The 2nd through 4th place finishers were 3rd to last, last, and 2nd to last early. When a horse like We Can Seek finishes ahead of Premium Tap you know there was a hot pace that compromised anyone on or near the lead.

Also may be worth noticing that of the off the pace horses in that race I can't name one who came back to run well. We Can Seek got handled easily by Wanderin Boy in the Brooklyn, Sun King lost the Woodward to a horse he beat handily the time before, West Virginia subsequently lost NY bred races to Naughty New Yorker and Organizer.

Sometimes the trip can be looked at through multiple lenses.

NT

Great thread. Rather than give my opinion about this horse getting what I think was a bad trip, good trip, etc. -- I'd like to add some general points of view. I am not a professional gambler by any means, but like anyone, I look to get any edge I can. I tend to watch a ton of replays, over and over again. Each time I watch, I might look for something I wasn't looking for the previous time.

On a related note, I spend the meet up at Saratoga, and I've seen some gamblers, professionals, players (whatever you want to call them) -- guys who I think are pretty sharp, watching replays constantly. Often, they watch them over and over again.

Anyway, I think trip handicapping is one ingredient in the main dish. It's not the recipe that really matters -- it's the "personal flair" the chef adds to the dish.

Thanks again for the great thread.

Eric

Exactly...

And an understanding of pace was also very key in evaluating Invasor's Donn Handicap trip. Had he been taken back, and got jammed up inside like he did, in a real slow paced raced, it would have been nearly impossible for him to win...and he would have had a monster bad trip.

However, the Donn was run through VERY rapid early fractions, which played to Invasor's advantage, as he was rating kindly off that hot pace. And the final three furlongs of the race was run in comically slow time for the Grade 1 older male level---due in part to the strong early pace.

Basically, Invasor's trip in the Donn was perfect for six furlongs, and though he encountered very legit trouble when the race was falling apart in front of him, the final three furlongs of the race was run so slow, that he needed only get running room in order to win comfortably.

If Invasor had been able to skate through the rail unmolested---he would have won by a much larger margin for sure....but that would have been what is reffered to as "a trip of a lifetime" ---because, not only would the trip itself be fantastic, but all the circumstances of the race went in the horses favor to boot.

Think of the trip Street Sense had in the BC Juvie, which led to his 10 length margin of victory. He saved all the ground on a very live rail, while rating in 13th place, behind absurdly fast fractions. He somehow managed to skate through a collapsing race, while saving every inch of ground on the inside. That is the textbook trip of a lifetime.

I completely thought early he was getting a dream setup and would blow the field away which had me very confused as to why Jara had him on the rail where he could get trapped. With that setup he could have gone wide and crushed that field. Where I disagree is that the momentum lost not only from clipping heels but also prior to that when the tiring speed was falling back into his lap and he had to slow down was way more significant than it is being given credit for. The important thing though is he won. There are plenty of horses that have some problems in a race and fold up like a tent. The very good ones still win even when they have every reason to lose.