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-   -   Top 25 Most Overrated Performances of '06 (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=7886)

JJP 12-18-2006 12:53 PM

Music School was another who was hyped because he was a 1/2 to some GSW.

Here's a shortcut to finding out the most overrated, overhyped 3YOs for '07:

Find out who's out of Grade 1 winners or is a half or full to a Gr. 1 winner.

Simple but reliable.

blackthroatedwind 12-18-2006 12:54 PM

I just consult Abe's lists.

cmorioles 12-18-2006 12:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski
Strong Contender: Overrated Horse of the Year. Should be a special Eclipse award for that one.

There were much more overrated horses than this one. Fleet Indian, Lava Man, Brother Derek, Giacomo, Henny Hughes come immediately to mind. You can then add Lawyer Ron, Jazil, and my personal selection, Sweetnorthernsaint, who actually went off favored in the Derby somehow.

Bystander 12-18-2006 12:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
Aristocrat, and I know your joking, got a curiously idiotic ride. What the hell was he doing on the pace? He is a closing sprinter!

Wait, I just figured it out, Dixie must have given the jockey his instructions!

Naw, I talked to Bobby. Suggested he mix things up with the colt. Oh well.

philcski 12-18-2006 01:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cmorioles
There were much more overrated horses than this one. Fleet Indian, Lava Man, Brother Derek, Giacomo, Henny Hughes come immediately to mind. You can then add Lawyer Ron, Jazil, and my personal selection, Sweetnorthernsaint, who actually went off favored in the Derby somehow.

I agree with all except Jazil. He was the what, 5th choice in the Belmont and 12th-ish choice in the Derby? Both were pretty reasonable estimations by the public.

I retract my earlier statement for Strong Contender as Overall Overrated Horse of the Year. FLEET INDIAN is the Champion F&M Overrated Horse of the Year and Overall Overrated Horse of the Year. Give her my phantom Eclipse vote.

ALostTexan 12-18-2006 01:24 PM

How about Lady of Venice? Yes, she was impressive beating 3YO fillies at Churchill, but she was then being touted as the second coming. She was bet down to even money in the Diana (against solid older fillies), and then was blown away by Wait a While in the Lake Placid.

boswd 12-18-2006 01:28 PM

In terms of Lemons Forever I would correct you in the Fact that the Alabama is histrocally the most important Grade I for 3 yr oldFilly's. It's the olderst Richest, non BC race and ran at 1 1/4.
The Oaks gets most of it's attention due to the fact they placed it a day before the Derby to give it a more grander exposure. I would say it is numer two though.

boswd 12-18-2006 01:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cmorioles
There were much more overrated horses than this one. Fleet Indian, Lava Man, Brother Derek, Giacomo, Henny Hughes come immediately to mind. You can then add Lawyer Ron, Jazil, and my personal selection, Sweetnorthernsaint, who actually went off favored in the Derby somehow.


I wouldn't call Heny Huges, Lava Man or Fleet Indian overratted. That is the problem with The Breeders Cup. Too much emphasis is put on one race on one day. I would look at these horse who have been above and beyond competitive through the year. I will give you Brother Derek and Giacomo though.

Bystander 12-18-2006 01:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by parsixfarms
How about Lady of Venice? Yes, she was impressive beating 3YO fillies at Churchill, but she was then being touted as the second coming. She was bet down to even money in the Diana (against solid older fillies), and then was blown away by Wait a While in the Lake Placid.

And how about adding Quite a Bride, then, too?

ALostTexan 12-18-2006 01:42 PM

I never had Quite a Bride being more than a Grade III-type, nor was she ever really touted as more than that. To hear people talking about Lady of Venice at Saratoga, you'd think she was the second coming of Gorella.

Bystander 12-18-2006 01:45 PM

Seemed to me she was getting some pretty hefty hype too, more than G3 rumblings, but I do agree with you on Lady of Venice.

Cajungator26 12-18-2006 03:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cmorioles
There were much more overrated horses than this one. Fleet Indian, Lava Man, Brother Derek, Giacomo, Henny Hughes come immediately to mind. You can then add Lawyer Ron, Jazil, and my personal selection, Sweetnorthernsaint, who actually went off favored in the Derby somehow.

I would hardly call Lava Man overrated. AND furthermore, how can you call SNS overrated? HORRIBLE trip in the derby and finished 2nd in the Preakness even though he was staggering down the lane and exhausted. Sorry, but I don't agree on those two at all.

cmorioles 12-18-2006 03:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cajungator26
I would hardly call Lava Man overrated. AND furthermore, how can you call SNS overrated? HORRIBLE trip in the derby and finished 2nd in the Preakness even though he was staggering down the lane and exhausted. Sorry, but I don't agree on those two at all.

No need to apologize, it is just opinion.

How many horses could win everything Lava Man did and still have no chance in the BC? He beat absolutely nothing all year long. I was a fan of what he did, but he took advantage of circumstances while showing he was nothing special figure wise.

SNS? Look at the Preakness chart:

http://msn.foxsports.com/horseracing/story/5625510

Other than one broken down horse and BroDerek, also on my list, there is absolutely nothing there.

Cajungator26 12-18-2006 04:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cmorioles
No need to apologize, it is just opinion.

How many horses could win everything Lava Man did and still have no chance in the BC? He beat absolutely nothing all year long. I was a fan of what he did, but he took advantage of circumstances while showing he was nothing special figure wise.

SNS? Look at the Preakness chart:

http://msn.foxsports.com/horseracing/story/5625510

Other than one broken down horse and BroDerek, also on my list, there is absolutely nothing there.

Well, of course there was nothing there in the Preakness. Do you think that Bernardini was overrated as well? He didn't beat much all season either. As for Lava Man, he doesn't ship well... some horses just don't. I was still impressed with all of his wins this year.

JJP 12-18-2006 04:03 PM

With Lava Man, its all about Bute. If he can't run on race day Bute, he's a toss out.

cmorioles 12-18-2006 04:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cajungator26
Well, of course there was nothing there in the Preakness. Do you think that Bernardini was overrated as well? He didn't beat much all season either. As for Lava Man, he doesn't ship well... some horses just don't. I was still impressed with all of his wins this year.

If the BC was run at Hollywood or Santa Anita, I still would have given Lava Man no chance.

Bernardini was obviously somewhat overrated, but he isn't anymore.

ArlJim78 12-18-2006 06:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cmorioles
If the BC was run at Hollywood or Santa Anita, I still would have given Lava Man no chance.
Bernardini was obviously somewhat overrated, but he isn't anymore.

i agree with this, I think Lava Mans problem was more to do with the distance and quality of the competition than running outside of Ca.

Danzig 12-18-2006 06:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cmorioles
There were much more overrated horses than this one. Fleet Indian, Lava Man, Brother Derek, Giacomo, Henny Hughes come immediately to mind. You can then add Lawyer Ron, Jazil, and my personal selection, Sweetnorthernsaint, who actually went off favored in the Derby somehow.

fleet indian and lava man? both found the winners circle every day this year but bc day. so did henny hughes. giacomo wasn't overrated, everyone knew that horse was what he was. lawyer ron was one of the $ winningest 3 yo's this year, and jazil won the belmont, so he's a classic winner. i'd take any of those over strong contender, any day!

Danzig 12-18-2006 06:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JJP
With Lava Man, its all about Bute. If he can't run on race day Bute, he's a toss out.

this bit of logic ranks up there with barbaros gate-break conspiracy. how many times does 'race day bute' have to be refuted on this board?!

outofthebox 12-18-2006 07:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JJP
With Lava Man, its all about Bute. If he can't run on race day Bute, he's a toss out.

Since when did Ky make it non race day bute. Heck i left there in 2003 and we could hit them with bute and ketofen on the am of the race. Cannon Shell would know the regulations now/


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