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10 pnt move up 05-04-2015 11:12 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind (Post 1025675)
So American Pharoah, who we were told has three or four gears, and can run as fast as need be to win ( essentially ) any race, needed 32 stings of the whip to run ( effectively ) the same race he ran in Arkansas?

American Pharoah got a dream trip to win the Derby by three quarters of a length over a horse that didn't change leads in the stretch. The pre-race BS about this horse was completely exposed.
Will this horse get Orb like hype in the next two weeks?

They seem similar to me in ways.

Indian Charlie 05-04-2015 11:36 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind (Post 1025675)
So American Pharoah, who we were told has three or four gears, and can run as fast as need be to win ( essentially ) any race, needed 32 stings of the whip to run ( effectively ) the same race he ran in Arkansas?

American Pharoah got a dream trip to win the Derby by three quarters of a length over a horse that didn't change leads in the stretch. The pre-race BS about this horse was completely exposed.
True, he didn't look as good as the hype portrayed him to be, but to say he was completely exposed is premature.

Hell, I didn't think he was going to win going down the backside.

Indian Charlie 05-04-2015 11:37 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up (Post 1025693)
Will this horse get Orb like hype in the next two weeks?

They seem similar to me in ways.
Comparing Orb to AP is ridiculous.

ninetoone 05-04-2015 11:40 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Indian Charlie (Post 1025712)
Comparing AP to Seattle Slew is ridiculous.

FTFY :)

MaTH716 05-04-2015 11:41 AM
I find it amazing that Espinoza worked out a trip from the 18 hole, where he was able to stay wide and not take any dirt to the face. That 5 trips in a row where he's been clear and clean.

10 pnt move up 05-04-2015 11:45 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Indian Charlie (Post 1025712)
Comparing Orb to AP is ridiculous.
Why?

pointman 05-04-2015 11:46 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MaTH716 (Post 1025715)
I find it amazing that Espinoza worked out a trip from the 18 hole, where he was able to stay wide and not take any dirt to the face. That 5 trips in a row where he's been clear and clean.
He has put in some terrific rides in the TC races and is almost certain to be over bet in next year's Derby like Borel has been.

MaTH716 05-04-2015 11:48 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by pointman (Post 1025719)
He has put in some terrific rides in the TC races and is almost certain to be over bet in next year's Derby like Borel has been.
The only thing is Nick, he's usually riding a Baffert rocket that's taking money anyway.

outofthebox 05-04-2015 12:01 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind (Post 1025675)
So American Pharoah, who we were told has three or four gears, and can run as fast as need be to win ( essentially ) any race, needed 32 stings of the whip to run ( effectively ) the same race he ran in Arkansas?

American Pharoah got a dream trip to win the Derby by three quarters of a length over a horse that didn't change leads in the stretch. The pre-race BS about this horse was completely exposed.
Can't remember where i read this, but Doug S. was preaching to everyone that would listed that just because a horse is winning easy like AP did in Arkansas, doesn't mean he will have another gear when asked hard. Compared it to his evaluation of Officer winning all those races geared down, then having nothing more when faced with adversity in the BC Juvenile. He was spot on.

Indian Charlie 05-04-2015 12:01 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up (Post 1025717)
Why?
A better question is how you can compare Orb to AP.

What possible similarities do they have besides winning the Derby?

Indian Charlie 05-04-2015 12:03 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by outofthebox (Post 1025733)
Can't remember where i read this, but Doug S. was preaching to everyone that would listed that just because a horse is winning easy like AP did in Arkansas, doesn't mean he will have another gear when asked hard. Compared it to his evaluation of Officer winning all those races geared down, then having nothing more when faced with adversity in the BC Juvenile. He was spot on.
That is often a complete fallacy, but not always.

We've all seen horses get asked by the jock and respond by speeding up.

We've all seen horses having to gear down because of traffic trouble, break free and explode.

There is little difference between those two scenarios and one in which a horse going easy then getting asked for more.

JJP 05-04-2015 12:15 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Indian Charlie (Post 1025734)
A better question is how you can compare Orb to AP.

What possible similarities do they have besides winning the Derby?
The hype, for one thing. After the Derby, the public and media both talked as if the Triple Crown was a foregone conclusion. What price did Orb go off at in Baltimore, 3-5?

I wonder if the rioters will riot outside Pimlico.

ElPrado 05-04-2015 12:21 PM
Yeah, but AP still won.

Indian Charlie 05-04-2015 12:36 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by JJP (Post 1025745)
The hype, for one thing. After the Derby, the public and media both talked as if the Triple Crown was a foregone conclusion. What price did Orb go off at in Baltimore, 3-5?

I wonder if the rioters will riot outside Pimlico.
Nobody with any functioning gray matter thought he was going to win the Triple Crown. In fact, most people on here seemed to think his Derby win would be his last major win.

freddymo 05-04-2015 12:50 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Indian Charlie (Post 1025750)
Nobody with any functioning gray matter thought he was going to win the Triple Crown. In fact, most people on here seemed to think his Derby win would be his last major win.
I think he wins TC I think CJ's fig is real not BSF. I was sure Big Brown would have won TC as well and Smarty Jones to boot so what do I know

10 pnt move up 05-04-2015 12:56 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Indian Charlie (Post 1025734)
A better question is how you can compare Orb to AP.

What possible similarities do they have besides winning the Derby?
Name trainer?

Favorite, very well regarded coming into the Derby and delivered?

Won in impressive fashion?

Had cake trips that hindered several in the field?

Will be 3/5 in their next start when they probably dont deserve to be any thing better than 7/5?


Just saying, nothing in common at all.

freddymo 05-04-2015 01:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up (Post 1025754)
Name trainer?
Who isnt a name trainer in the Derby?

Favorite, very well regarded coming into the Derby and delivered?
Orb didnt have NEAR the hype AP did nor should he have

Won in impressive fashion?
Orb won a staggerfest after suicidal early pace

Had cake trips that hindered several in the field?
AP made his trip Orb inherited his hardily comparable

Will be 3/5 in their next start when they probably dont deserve to be any thing better than 7/5?
Depends who shows up


Just saying, nothing in common at all.

Just saying

Indian Charlie 05-04-2015 01:25 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by freddymo (Post 1025753)
I think he wins TC I think CJ's fig is real not BSF. I was sure Big Brown would have won TC as well and Smarty Jones to boot so what do I know
What was CJ's fig Freddy?

Smarty should have won, but was clearly a target and has his chances sabotaged.

Big Brown? I would have been very surprised had he hit the board.

10 pnt move up 05-04-2015 01:28 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by freddymo (Post 1025756)
Just saying
Your equating Baffert/Shug to say Motion? ok

Orb had TONS of hype into the Derby Freddy.

The beyers are only a couple points different, one had a fast pace, one had a very moderate pace.

He is going to be 3/5.

We can check back after the race, he is a horrible bet at his odds of winning and they are not 3/5.

Danzig 05-04-2015 01:29 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by JJP (Post 1025745)
The hype, for one thing. After the Derby, the public and media both talked as if the Triple Crown was a foregone conclusion. What price did Orb go off at in Baltimore, 3-5?

I wonder if the rioters will riot outside Pimlico.
no more curfew. no riots or protests since charges brought vs the police.


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