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-   -   Early Breeders' Cup Projections... (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4668)

blackthroatedwind 09-19-2006 08:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
Yeah I hear she is going in the Matriarch first.

The Yellow Ribbon...right?

Isn't the Matriarch part of the Hollywood Turf Festival on Thanksgiving weekend?

repent 09-19-2006 11:01 PM

I know this is kind of pointless b/c nothing starts until post position are drawn, but its fun anyway.

BCJF-
Point Ashley-easiest call of the day probably.

BCJ-
Circular Quay-undefeated, likes CD, will only want more ground

BCS-
Songster-Im not going all chalk

BCD-
Oonagh Maccool-see above statement, and besides, I think she is the best dirt female on the planet when right.

BCFMT-
Alexandrova-2nd easiest call of the day.

BCM-
Librettist-I cant find anything wrong with him.
can you?

BCT-
Deep Impact-if he runs, he wins. I honestly have no idea if its even a consideration for them. Im sure a lot of you can give me more info on this.
Hes the best middle distance horse on the turf I have seen this year, and its not even close.

If he does not run, then whatever Coolmore runs will win. English Channel is the best US based hope. He has already won a G1 at this track this year.

BCC-
Bernardini-total freak.
If Godolphin decides not to run him(for whatever reason), then I think David Junior stands an excellent chance here.


Repent

1st_Saturday_in_May 09-19-2006 11:12 PM

Pent, I think I've read that Deep Impact's connections have zero interest in the Breeders Cup.

repent 09-19-2006 11:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1st_Saturday_in_May
Pent, I think I've read that Deep Impact's connections have zero interest in the Breeders Cup.


figured that was the case.
the Arc and then the Japan Cup?

seems to make the most sense.


Repent

1st_Saturday_in_May 09-19-2006 11:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by repent
figured that was the case.
the Arc and then the Japan Cup?

seems to make the most sense.


Repent

Yep that seems to be the plan. I really wish they'd reconsider though because I'd love to see him in the BC. Looking forward to a great Arc though with him squaring off versus Hurricane Run, Shirocco, et al

dalakhani 09-19-2006 11:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig188
i didn't have you or your posts in mind when i typed my posts above. and i just said no race would be easy so i'm not sure why you felt you had to remind me that no race was a walkover. i do think that the f+m turf might be a bit easier than the mile for gorella...but ouija for one has been giving the boys fits all year, carrying more weight than she will in november at churchill (carrying as much or more weight than the males here as well!)...some of the others will be tough as well, and have been tried at that distance in the past. gorella facing top competition and a new, longer distance would be interesting to say the very least.

If they decide to run Ouija Board in the FmTurf, it is a racing certainty that she wins. Rather easily i might add.

repent 09-19-2006 11:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1st_Saturday_in_May
Yep that seems to be the plan. I really wish they'd reconsider though because I'd love to see him in the BC. Looking forward to a great Arc though with him squaring off versus Hurricane Run, Shirocco, et al


yeah,
thats a race for the ages.

better than when Montjeu met Sinndar or any other running that I have seen.

Repent

repent 09-19-2006 11:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dalakhani
If they decide to run Ouija Board in the FmTurf, it is a racing certainty that she wins. Rather easily i might add.


really?

are you European based?

Im curious,
is it that much of a consensus over there that she is the best femal middle distance horse?

I like Alexandrova better. much better.

Repent

dalakhani 09-19-2006 11:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by repent
really?

are you European based?

Im curious,
is it that much of a consensus over there that she is the best femal middle distance horse?

I like Alexandrova better. much better.

Repent

Work takes me all over the world and i went to Ascot this year. Ouija Board is definitely fancied over there. She gets a ton of respect. Remember though, that was before Alexandrova dominated at York. Im sure there are probably many over there that agree with you at this point.

dalakhani 09-19-2006 11:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by repent
yeah,
thats a race for the ages.

better than when Montjeu met Sinndar or any other running that I have seen.

Repent

That was 2000 right?

repent 09-20-2006 12:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dalakhani
That was 2000 right?

yep,
it was 2000, which was Sinndar's awesome 3YO year where he was basically a head away from being unbeaten.
his only loss was by a head in a Epsom Derby prep race.
he went on to win the Epsom Derby, the Irish Derby, and the Arc. retired with 7 wins in 8 starts.

Montjeu won the Arc the previous year in 1999.

funny thing is, I think Sinndar still lost out on year end honors b/c that was the same year Giants Causeway had an awesome 3YO campaign.


Repent

Cunningham Racing 09-20-2006 06:11 PM

I just learned that they are definately going to run Gorella next in a mile race at Keeneland, so there you go....it appears the decision has been basically made....they are definately thinking BC Mile first, but I still wouldn't be surprised to see them pre-enter both races...I think they are counting on Lady of Venice running in the F&M turf, but if Wait a While crushes her again at Keeneland in the Queen Elizabeth Stakes, then would they still want to run her in the Breeders' Cup?...I wouldn't see why....

blackthroatedwind 09-20-2006 06:16 PM

Yeah, Gorella is running in the Galaxy at Keeneland.

blackthroatedwind 09-20-2006 06:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cunningham Racing
I just learned that they are definately going to run Gorella next in a mile race at Keeneland, so there you go....it appears the decision has been basically made....they are definately thinking BC Mile first, but I still wouldn't be surprised to see them pre-enter both races...I think they are counting on Lady of Venice running in the F&M turf, but if Wait a While crushes her again at Keeneland in the Queen Elizabeth Stakes, then would they still want to run her in the Breeders' Cup?...I wouldn't see why....

And while yer disclosing this information perhaps you should peruse some earlier posts....Wait a While is running in the Yellow Ribbon in California. It will give her five weeks to the BC as opposed to three if she runs in the QE II at Keeneland.

Danzig 09-20-2006 06:58 PM

also, keep in mind that historically, the fave in the distaff wins that race most often.

and ouija already beat alexandrova, didn't she?

Cunningham Racing 09-20-2006 09:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
And while yer disclosing this information perhaps you should peruse some earlier posts....Wait a While is running in the Yellow Ribbon in California. It will give her five weeks to the BC as opposed to three if she runs in the QE II at Keeneland.

Actually, I knew that...mistakenly recalled when they originally said QE II...I quit keeping up with horses that don't have a shot at winning Breeders' Cup races and I forgot they opted for California with her...she'll be a no-factor in the F&M Turf....so will Lady of Venice...that is why I think Gorella should run there...she is the only American hope of defeating Ouija Board and Alexandrova...

Like usual on real turf courses (which Churchill Downs has), I don't like America's chances of winning any BC races on the grass if the expected Euros come....Gorella has the best shot in the F&M Turf, but they'll probably elect to hook boys that are faster than her....

Cunningham Racing 09-20-2006 09:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig188

and ouija already beat alexandrova, didn't she?


nope.....never faced each other....

blackthroatedwind 09-20-2006 10:02 PM

Gorella is actually a Euro.

The only reason I'm sorry she's not running in the F&M Turf, Joel, is so that I can see you eat crow:-)

But, since Patrick is a friend, I am much happier to see her running in the race she has the best chance to win.


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