Derby Trail Forums

Derby Trail Forums (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/index.php)
-   The Paddock (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/forumdisplay.php?f=2)
-   -   DERBY/OAKS DAWN PATROL: (5/1) Valeski out, Optimizer in.. (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=46518)

philcski 05-01-2012 10:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slotdirt (Post 857145)
Just read that Mark Valeski is definitely out of the race.

And there goes my other future bet.

Indian Charlie 05-01-2012 11:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski (Post 857159)
And there goes my other future bet.

That went awhile ago.

Calzone Lord 05-01-2012 11:18 AM

D. Wayne is in!?

The takeout rate for the Derby has been slightly lowered.

-BT- 05-01-2012 11:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord (Post 857167)
D. Wayne is in!?

The takeout rate for the Derby has been slightly lowered.

it's easier to toss D. Wayne then Larry L.

-bt-

Danzig 05-01-2012 12:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slotdirt (Post 857149)
I agree with Beyer for the most part. If a horse is going to go out and run a 45 half in the Derby, it's going to effect the race outcome regardless.

i figured all that about t'berg, but appreciated him mentioning about other horses running styles, and how they will most likely suffer with his entry. looking at off the pace horses, rather than those who like to be on or near the front. several good horses will be compromised because of this horse running, it'll affect more than just trinniberg.

richard 05-01-2012 03:16 PM

You had Songandaprayer set the Derby record for a 1/2 at 44.86. Of the four horses at the front at the half none finished better than 11th. Congaree in 5th at the half hung in there to finish 3rd. When Hal's Hope ran for glory he was in the lead at the half in 45.99. Of the 4 horses on the lead at the half only More Than Ready finished 4th. The other 3 could do no better than 11th. So I guess you need to keep your best early pace horse in the mix with the closers when there is a hot early pace, as there usually is.

War Emblem won on the lead in his KD in a 1/2 in 47.04.

slotdirt 05-01-2012 03:40 PM

Folks keep talking about pace - the median opening half since 1970 is around 46 and 2/5. As I mentioned the other day, only twice in that time frame has the half gone slower than 48. Nothing else to add other than the chances of the opening half being anything but quick seem to be relatively slim when the race is looked at from a historical perspective.

slotdirt 05-01-2012 04:14 PM

So I know I sound like I'm beating a dead horse here - no pun intended - but is Done Talking invisible when he hits the track the last couple of mornings? Aside from Steve's one line of yesterday, I haven't seen anybody - not Mike Welsch in his clocker reports - mention the horse even once. I get that he's an exceptionally long shot to win the race, but with all the mentions of Trinniberg and Liaison and other potential tosses, one would think someone somewhere would have some opinion on the horse when he's been on the grounds for two days now.

hoovesupsideyourhead 05-01-2012 04:25 PM

he jogged today i think..and im using him.his goham was good and hes gonna get some pace to run at..

slotdirt 05-01-2012 04:42 PM

His Remsen was good you mean. His Gotham was decidedly not good, but he also came out of the race with colitis.

tywizard 05-01-2012 06:37 PM

How many jockeys have pulled off the oaks derby double?

Think Castellano has a solid chance.

NTamm1215 05-01-2012 06:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tywizard (Post 857258)
How many jockeys have pulled off the oaks derby double?

Think Castellano has a solid chance.

The last was Borel in 2009. I don't know off the top of my head how many did so before that.

HaloWishingwell 05-01-2012 07:12 PM

It won't happen this year unless Gutierrez gets a late mount in the Oaks..:D

Sightseek 05-01-2012 08:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slotdirt (Post 857232)
So I know I sound like I'm beating a dead horse here - no pun intended - but is Done Talking invisible when he hits the track the last couple of mornings? Aside from Steve's one line of yesterday, I haven't seen anybody - not Mike Welsch in his clocker reports - mention the horse even once. I get that he's an exceptionally long shot to win the race, but with all the mentions of Trinniberg and Liaison and other potential tosses, one would think someone somewhere would have some opinion on the horse when he's been on the grounds for two days now.

The Blood-Horse Facebook page has a bunch of photos of him. :o

hoovesupsideyourhead 05-01-2012 08:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slotdirt (Post 857246)
His Remsen was good you mean. His Gotham was decidedly not good, but he also came out of the race with colitis.

yes sorry..hes either really slow or a must use..

Coach Pants 05-02-2012 07:07 AM

How did Lava Man look?

OldDog 05-02-2012 08:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Coach Pants (Post 857337)
How did Lava Man look?

You can see him on faceplant :o
http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fb...type=1&theater

fantini33 05-02-2012 08:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig (Post 857147)
after reading beyer on t'burg, i'm leaning toward dullahan, creative cause and gemologist. i think his points about the early pace and who it will affect is absolutely correct.

Where can I read this? Thx in advance for the help.

SundaySilence 05-02-2012 08:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fantini33 (Post 857347)
Where can I read this? Thx in advance for the help.

http://www.drf.com/news/beyer-speeds...ucky-derby-fit

Danzig 05-02-2012 08:35 AM

thanks sunday...i know that link was in a thread somewhere in the paddock!


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 11:42 PM.

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.6.8
Copyright ©2000 - 2025, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.