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-   -   10/1 (BEL): JCGC, Beldame, JHTC, Vosburgh, FlwrBwl (G1's), Kelso (G2) (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=43911)

Dahoss 10-03-2011 11:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord (Post 809192)
Game On Dude would have won the Goodwood by about 6 lengths with a competent ride.

He overcame horribly stupid tactics and beat a stunningly bad field.

After the race I said something similar. The problem is she seems convinced the only way he can win is on the lead. I'm not sure she's wrong either, but no way he does that in the Classic. But he might really set it up for Flat Out, who seemed way closer than he wants to be on Saturday.

Travis Stone 10-04-2011 08:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dahoss (Post 809200)
After the race I said something similar. The problem is she seems convinced the only way he can win is on the lead. I'm not sure she's wrong either, but no way he does that in the Classic. But he might really set it up for Flat Out, who seemed way closer than he wants to be on Saturday.

Baffert said on the ESPN telecast he told her to put him on the lead, because that's how he likes to roll.

Travis Stone 10-04-2011 08:47 AM

Uncle Mo is obviously very talented, and the sky is the limit in terms of his ability. When healthy, we've seen what he can do and there is no denying that.

I thought Jerry Bailey made an interesting comment in that his Kelso reminded him of Ghostzapper, and he then said how Ghostzapper was able to win the Breeders' Cup Classic, so we'll see.

Obviously Uncle Mo has a long ways to go before he's the next Ghostzapper (or maybe just one brilliant start in the Classic), but for my money, with short odds in the starting gate, I think you have to think about betting against him.

An easy lead in the slop at Belmont Park going one mile is totally different than a pressured pace going ten furlongs at Churchill Downs. I have a hard time believing he would have sustained that pace last year and pulled away late, much less held off Blame and Zenyatta... and even Fly Down or Lookin at Lucky.

I understand that the distance question with Mo is somewhat fluid, because he really hasn't done a lot to say he can't go farther than 1-1/16 miles. But the conditions in the Classic figure to be far more intense than what he saw this weekend, and combined with the price, makes for an excellent bet against.

If he wins - fantastic - he lives up to everything he's hinted at since last summer and is a star. And maybe with the right wagering, a bet or two can still be hit. But as of right now, there's enough gas in the race to make me look elsewhere.

Indian Charlie 10-04-2011 09:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Travis Stone (Post 809221)

I understand that the distance question with Mo is somewhat fluid, because he really hasn't done a lot to say he can't go farther than 1-1/16 miles. But the conditions in the Classic figure to be far more intense than what he saw this weekend, and combined with the price, makes for an excellent bet against.

I don't see him being anywhere near a 109.1 3/4s in the Classic.

Dahoss 10-04-2011 09:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Travis Stone (Post 809219)
Baffert said on the ESPN telecast he told her to put him on the lead, because that's how he likes to roll.

I caught that. Baffert seemed pretty pissed after the race I thought. Not really at her, but just in general.

TouchOfGrey 10-04-2011 09:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dahoss (Post 809227)
I caught that. Baffert seemed pretty pissed after the race I thought. Not really at her, but just in general.

I think they said on HRTV that he wasn't happy with the ride Martin Garcia gave Drill earlier.

Dahoss 10-04-2011 10:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TouchOfGrey (Post 809231)
I think they said on HRTV that he wasn't happy with the ride Martin Garcia gave Drill earlier.

Yeah, they tried to ask him, but he didn't really get into it. I didn't think the ride was bad at all. Maybe he should have been a little closer, but his horse was never beating Creative Cause that day.

TouchOfGrey 10-04-2011 10:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dahoss (Post 809232)
Yeah, they tried to ask him, but he didn't really get into it. I didn't think the ride was bad at all. Maybe he should have been a little closer, but his horse was never beating Creative Cause that day.

Creative Cause was much the best, for sure.

Just remembered; he was probably also pissed about what happened to Euroears in the Vosburgh.

Seattleallstar 10-04-2011 10:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Travis Stone (Post 809221)
Uncle Mo is obviously very talented, and the sky is the limit in terms of his ability. When healthy, we've seen what he can do and there is no denying that.

I thought Jerry Bailey made an interesting comment in that his Kelso reminded him of Ghostzapper, and he then said how Ghostzapper was able to win the Breeders' Cup Classic, so we'll see.

Obviously Uncle Mo has a long ways to go before he's the next Ghostzapper (or maybe just one brilliant start in the Classic), but for my money, with short odds in the starting gate, I think you have to think about betting against him.

An easy lead in the slop at Belmont Park going one mile is totally different than a pressured pace going ten furlongs at Churchill Downs. I have a hard time believing he would have sustained that pace last year and pulled away late, much less held off Blame and Zenyatta... and even Fly Down or Lookin at Lucky.

I understand that the distance question with Mo is somewhat fluid, because he really hasn't done a lot to say he can't go farther than 1-1/16 miles. But the conditions in the Classic figure to be far more intense than what he saw this weekend, and combined with the price, makes for an excellent bet against.

If he wins - fantastic - he lives up to everything he's hinted at since last summer and is a star. And maybe with the right wagering, a bet or two can still be hit. But as of right now, there's enough gas in the race to make me look elsewhere.

He aint no Ghostzapper thats for damn sure, The moves we saw from Zapper were superhorse like. I remember early on Zapper would come from the clouds and fly home, then he started to win from anywhere, any style, any distance.

Indian Charlie 10-04-2011 11:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Seattleallstar (Post 809243)
He aint no Ghostzapper thats for damn sure, The moves we saw from Zapper were superhorse like. I remember early on Zapper would come from the clouds and fly home, then he started to win from anywhere, any style, any distance.

You mean when he was a 4yo?

It's safe to say UM was a better 2yo than GZ was, even with GZ's eye popping debut.

GZ certainly had a better 3yo campaign than UM has thus far, but was he a better 3yo??

Travis Stone 10-04-2011 02:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie (Post 809224)
I don't see him being anywhere near a 109.1 3/4s in the Classic.

Last year they went 1:11.01, and the top four horses after 6f's ended-up 8th, 12th, 10th and 11th. Obviously times on different days, on different tracks with different conditions cannot be compared without plenty of asterisks, including how this year's field ultimately shakes-out.

He went 1:09 and change last weekend over a wet track with absolutely zero pressure whatsoever. Easy leads translate to big figs and big performances all the time. He can win the race, but if he's going to be something-to-five in the starting gate, I can't see how he offers any value.

Travis Stone 10-04-2011 02:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie (Post 809263)
GZ certainly had a better 3yo campaign than UM has thus far, but was he a better 3yo??

Ghostzapper's Vosburgh at 3-years-old where he was 13 lengths behind at the first call, but first by 6-1/2 lengths on the wire is pretty tough to beat. Even though Mo's Beyer was two points higher this weekend, the circumstances were quite different. But Mo still has another race to go too.

richard 10-04-2011 02:36 PM


Greg Brandow photo

Seattleallstar 10-04-2011 03:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie (Post 809263)
You mean when he was a 4yo?

It's safe to say UM was a better 2yo than GZ was, even with GZ's eye popping debut.

GZ certainly had a better 3yo campaign than UM has thus far, but was he a better 3yo??

cant compare the two like that, Zapper was trained by Frankel. In any case to answer the question UM has had a better 3 yr old season and the better 3 yr old, because Zapper was put away after his Vosburgh, wasnt he? Plus at that point we really didnt know yet how great he actually was. I was like they must be running at him at these distances because hes just a sprinter, the rest is history

Dahoss 10-04-2011 04:14 PM

Between that picture and this conversation, my head hurts.

freddymo 10-04-2011 07:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Seattleallstar (Post 809243)
He aint no Ghostzapper thats for damn sure, The moves we saw from Zapper were superhorse like. I remember early on Zapper would come from the clouds and fly home, then he started to win from anywhere, any style, any distance.

Let's keep in mind who was Ghostzappers trainer. The horse by many accounts was a complete laimo and still ran like a bullet train, all Frankel's stock during his reign seemed bullet proof so while you have to love Ghostzapper and beg for another like him keep some perspective on the drugs in his system

freddymo 10-04-2011 07:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Travis Stone (Post 809289)
Last year they went 1:11.01, and the top four horses after 6f's ended-up 8th, 12th, 10th and 11th. Obviously times on different days, on different tracks with different conditions cannot be compared without plenty of asterisks, including how this year's field ultimately shakes-out.

He went 1:09 and change last weekend over a wet track with absolutely zero pressure whatsoever. Easy leads translate to big figs and big performances all the time. He can win the race, but if he's going to be something-to-five in the starting gate, I can't see how he offers any value.

Travis what does value have to do with the BC Classic its suppose to be the elite race of the year.. Plenty of value in 7500 mdn claimers on the inner on a big thursday card in Feb. The BC Classic is about wondering if the best horse in the land is racing that day and thrilling the sport not gambling?

Indian Charlie 10-04-2011 09:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by freddymo (Post 809358)
Let's keep in mind who was Ghostzappers trainer. The horse by many accounts was a complete laimo and still ran like a bullet train, all Frankel's stock during his reign seemed bullet proof so while you have to love Ghostzapper and beg for another like him keep some perspective on the drugs in his system

I'm a pretty big Mo fan, but hey, let's keep some perspective here.

I seriously doubt he's a 'clean' horse.

Coach Pants 10-05-2011 12:22 AM

Absinthe tonight?

freddymo 10-05-2011 09:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie (Post 809377)
I'm a pretty big Mo fan, but hey, let's keep some perspective here.

I seriously doubt he's a 'clean' horse.

Liver is worse then mine


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