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Quote:

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi (Post 750192)

I'm not qualified to comment on the pace figures, however the 3/4 split was nearly 4 seconds faster than that of the San Antonio (a Grade 2 for 4yo and up) a day later at the same track and distance. Nevertheless, my comment was in response to yours saying that visually Twirling Candy settled nicely in the Strub. That simply wasn't the case. The pace figs are available and while you cant speak about them as expert you know enough to realize restrained on a 90 pace vs. 110 pace in a the Donn means the horse is capable of running much slower early then the horses infront of him. I dont know how many lengths 20 pace pts are but surely it is 4 or 5Now, your new theory that because TC wasn't on the lead (despite "pulling") in the slower paced Strub, he would be able to settle off a faster pace as in the Donn I suppose is possible. Again, I wouldn't necessarily describe it as "settled" but he was pretty much outrun early in the Malibu, which would lend some support to your idea.

However, it should be recognized the Malibu was a sprint, at least a 1/4 mile shorter than the major handicaps later this year. Also that early pace was set by outright sprinters (Smiling Tiger and Alcindor), not by speedy route types. I might also even say that Twirling Candy should have been even further back in that race (he was only 3 lengths off Smiling Tiger) if indeed he could settle as you suggest. Lastly, though he was able to cope with being positioned off the early lead, the Malibu was certainly Twirling Candy's most hard fought victory, all out to get up just at the wire. Certainly that finish in no way suggests that he would want 2 more furlongs to deal with at anything close to that pace.

I always thought a horse that overcomes setup in a sprint in a race that doesnt fit his style suggests quality. Smiling Tiger is a better sprinter then Twirling Candy and therefore Twirling Candy was at a disadvantage plus Twirling candy connection could not have been targeting the Malibu for Twirling Candys supereme effort. I think you wil agree that the Malibu wasnt the connections ultimate goal even if you think they are foolishly persuing routing. As for not wanting extra distance, I would suggest the longer they go the better Twirling Candy will be as he continues to develop. the colt has a long stride and didnt look exhausted in the Strub now if that was a result of a very slow early pace that he seemed to somehow agree to rate on we will see as I am sure connections will look to the Big Cap and other routes for his immediate future

Quote:

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi (Post 750192)

I'm not qualified to comment on the pace figures, however the 3/4 split was nearly 4 seconds faster than that of the San Antonio (a Grade 2 for 4yo and up) a day later at the same track and distance.

The half mile split was indentical to 8K claimers the same day and distance - but yeah, compared to the San Antonio ... the pace was blistering fast.

That was a nice duel in the Zazu race ... jesus.

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS (Post 750198)

The half mile split was indentical to 8K claimers the same day and distance - but yeah, compared to the San Antonio ... the pace was blistering fast.

That was a nice duel in the Zazu race ... jesus.

Pretty good race from May Day Rose, no?

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS (Post 750198)

The half mile split was indentical to 8K claimers the same day and distance - but yeah, compared to the San Antonio ... the pace was blistering fast.

I know, I was trying to avoid that race like the plague. Almost mentioned it because the 3/4 split was a little slower, but those were horrible horses.

Didn't want to hand Freddy any fodder on a tee...

Quote:

That was a nice duel in the Zazu race ... jesus.

Yeah, that was hilarious. The May Day Rose filly should "turn" into a monster once she finds the paceless 5-horse stakes fields rampant throughout the country.

I'm penciling her in early for the Sunland Park, Iowa, and Indiana Oaks. Should win each of those by double digits.

Quote:

Originally Posted by freddymo (Post 750197)

I always thought a horse that overcomes setup in a sprint in a race that doesnt fit his style suggests quality.

That's why one might say that Smiling Tiger is very good, but not Twirling Candy. The race is 7f and usually gets a full field with several confirmed sprinters, inherently favoring horses coming out of route races such as Twirling Candy. Smiling Tiger, who had a full campaign and was just coming back off the BC Sprint, had a decent horse lapped on to him throughout and he was still strong to the wire.

However, apparently it took a lot out of him, or the race wasn't very good, as he was brow-beaten by the comebacking old-timer Euroears a few weeks later in the 6f Palos Verdes. To be fair, he never challenged for the lead and seemed somewhat trapped sitting in 3rd early.

Quote:

Smiling Tiger is a better sprinter then Twirling Candy and therefore Twirling Candy was at a disadvantage plus Twirling candy connection could not have been targeting the Malibu for Twirling Candys supereme effort.

Again it was 7f. It favored Twirling Candy immensely. Didn't Smiling Tiger, coming off 4 straight Grade 1s against older horses (2 wins) including a placing in the BC Sprint, go off at 6-1 odds?

Quote:

I think you wil agree that the Malibu wasnt the connections ultimate goal even if you think they are foolishly persuing routing. As for not wanting extra distance, I would suggest the longer they go the better Twirling Candy will be as he continues to develop. the colt has a long stride and didnt look exhausted in the Strub now if that was a result of a very slow early pace that he seemed to somehow agree to rate on we will see as I am sure connections will look to the Big Cap and other routes for his immediate future

I don't think its silly they pursue the Big Cap, etc. I just think he'll get exposed at a route if he every runs against formidable company.

I hope there's a big upset in the Big Cap (fingers crossed, Spurrier) so that we can see Twirling Candy in his more appropriate milieu, eg the Carter and the Met Mile.