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-   -   11/6 (CD): Breeders' Cup Saturday (Post Draw Fields; ML's) (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=39066)

Scav 10-31-2010 11:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dahoss (Post 714289)
It's one of the few races I'm really interested in seeing the draw. I've looked at the race about 4 different times and I've come up with a different opinion each time. But, for now I'm interested in Central City, Rose catherine and Grand Adventure.

I'm sure that will change in a day or so.

To me, for a spread player, it is an all race because the traffic trouble in this race will be plentiful, and I'll probably do that on at least a couple tickets.

Right now, if I had to commit to a couple it would be Silver Timber, Bridgetown, Chamberlian Bridge because they will have the tactical speed and still be able to finish.

hockey2315 10-31-2010 11:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav (Post 714288)
I'm curious how you can like that horse at 5f. He is either gonna be 7 wide in the turn or he is gonna have to have fight through traffic.

I am not sure what price Bridgetown will be, intrigues me, but whoever I figure to be in the 2nd tier (out of three tiers) will be who I'll be using.

He's simply the most talented horse in the field when right. He's tactical enough to be where he needs to be and he was much the best when he lost to Silver Timber by a neck going 5.5f earlier this year. Like you said, the outcome of this race will be very trip dependent, but that doesn't mean I'm not going to take the horse(s) I think are the best or offer the most value just because I'm worried they'll get a bad trip. I don't know why Grand Adventure projects to get a bad one, though.

I don't really get the Bridgetown appeal at all. No horse he has beaten has come back to flatter him enough to suggest he can beat the top ones here. I guess you could say that the pace was a little fast last time and maybe the course was anti-speed, but isn't he going to have a lot more pace to contend with this time?

I'll probably bet Ravalo to win unless Grand Adventure is a higher price than I'm expecting. Then I'll use Ravalo, GA, Silver Timber and Central City in exotics.

Merlinsky 11-01-2010 04:39 AM

Did nobody want to put Calvin Borel on a horse in the Classic going 1 1/4 on a track where he's won 3 of the last 4 Derbies at said distance and Pletcher said he's good everywhere else but he's 5 lengths better at Churchill?

fantini33 11-01-2010 03:25 PM

I will be leaning on Warriors Reward strongly enough that if my opinion is correct there, and yet I whiff on all the other races, I will still make money.

NoLuvForPletch 11-02-2010 08:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski (Post 713430)
From DerbyMedia:
Chamberain Bridge (Turf Sprint) popped an abscess this a.m. & will probably skip his next scheduled breeze. Will return to track tomorrow.

Obviously a big deal as he probably will be a top 3 choice.

Loved him in this spot as he should be 4-4 on the CD lawn. Obviously the abscess and missed breeze dampen the enthusiasm. Any update on his status would be appreciated. Thanks!

Scav 11-02-2010 01:19 PM

Morning Line as the ML favorite of the Mile. Battaglia smoking some strong stuff

The Indomitable DrugS 11-02-2010 01:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Merlinsky (Post 714330)
Did nobody want to put Calvin Borel on a horse in the Classic going 1 1/4 on a track where he's won 3 of the last 4 Derbies at said distance and Pletcher said he's good everywhere else but he's 5 lengths better at Churchill?

Who needs Borel when you can sign up Rajiv Maragh - and his $1.27 ROI in dirt routes over the last five years - from over 1,500+ total mounts.

Borel should be on something in every single dirt race.

zippyneedsawin 11-02-2010 01:45 PM

I can't seem to get to the last page of this thread.. so I figured maybe posting something would work.... let's see....

Alan07 11-02-2010 01:55 PM

Juvenile Male Dirt (3:55)
Post Horse Jockey Trainer Odds
1. Biondetti Ahmed Ajtebi Mahmoud Al Zarooni 12-1
2. Boys At Tosconova Ramon A. Dominguez Richard E. Dutrow, Jr. 5-2
3. J. B.'s Thunder Shaun Bridgmohan Albert M. Stall, Jr. 12-1
4. J P's Gusto Patrick A. Valenzuela David E. Hofmans 10-1
5. Riveting Reason Victor Espinoza Myung Kwon Cho 30-1
6. Stay Thirsty Javier Castellano Todd A. Pletcher 8-1
7. Uncle Mo John R. Velazquez Todd A. Pletcher 7-5
8. Murjan Rafael Bejarano Darrin Miller 30-1
9. Rogue Romance Julien Leparoux Kenneth G. McPeek 30-1
10. Jaycito Mike Smith Mike R. Mitchell 8-1

robfla 11-02-2010 02:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by zippyneedsawin (Post 715042)
I can't seem to get to the last page of this thread.. so I figured maybe posting something would work.... let's see....

i had the same problem...fixed now

Scav 11-02-2010 02:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav (Post 715016)
Morning Line as the ML favorite of the Mile. Battaglia smoking some strong stuff

I'm sorry for being obsessed with this, but could this be the worst ML in the history of BC ML's

The horse has never even won at 8 furlongs, and won a 5 horse Penn Derby.

He has to be banging someone at Churchill to be allowed to keep his job.

randallscott35 11-02-2010 02:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav (Post 715107)
I'm sorry for being obsessed with this, but could this be the worst ML in the history of BC ML's

The horse has never even won at 8 furlongs, and won a 5 horse Penn Derby.

He has to be banging someone at Churchill to be allowed to keep his job.

Its Battaglia, don't fret it.

Borntorun 11-02-2010 03:08 PM

When will the Past Performances be available from DRF? They still have the advanced PPs on the web-site. Thanks!

knickslions2 11-02-2010 03:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav (Post 715107)
I'm sorry for being obsessed with this, but could this be the worst ML in the history of BC ML's

The horse has never even won at 8 furlongs, and won a 5 horse Penn Derby.

He has to be banging someone at Churchill to be allowed to keep his job.

It should be good for you if you don't like that horse

hockey2315 11-02-2010 03:10 PM

There's no way Here Comes Ben and Tizway will be 6-1 either. Scav shouldn't be happy because the race won't be bet how Battaglia thinks it will. Morning Line should be like 8-1.

ateamstupid 11-02-2010 03:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by knickslions2 (Post 715115)
It should be good for you if you don't like that horse

Why? What percentage of the public is going to bet according to the morning line? Battaglia's line is irrelevant, just fun to laugh at.

parsixfarms 11-02-2010 03:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid (Post 715122)
Why? What percentage of the public is going to bet according to the morning line? Battaglia's line is irrelevant, just fun to laugh at.

A bad morning line helps in horizontal wagers if the horses that you like are considerably higher on the M/L than what their actual odds will be for betting on the race.

hockey2315 11-02-2010 03:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by parsixfarms (Post 715133)
A bad morning line helps in horizontal wagers if the horses that you like are considerably higher on the M/L than what their actual odds will be for betting on the race.

Not really.

knickslions2 11-02-2010 03:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid (Post 715122)
Why? What percentage of the public is going to bet according to the morning line? Battaglia's line is irrelevant, just fun to laugh at.

Ya but there are a lot of rookies betting these races and some bet based on morning lines


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