Derby Trail Forums - Belmont Fractions

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Quote:

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Here's the chart for the race; try to make some sense of it. Try to look at it objectively. That's the last of it from me.

This should also answer Fischer's question about MTB and Dunkirk. We wouldn't want him to hurt himself.

With the Fat Chart it appears that either Dunkirk or Mine That Bird ran the two best races, and that Summer Bird was worst.

My impression from the race was that Summer Bird was best.
The logical question would be "was Summer Bird capable of more, had he been asked for more?" - and that answer is almost always "No".
Still I am not 100% sold that Summer Bird wasn't best.

I see the big dramatic line angle of Mine That Birds move...
and I see the half mile break that Dunkirk gets.
But I am also stubbornly aware of the 1st quarter that Dunkirk sets(and Mine That Bird contrasting 11 lengths behind) and how fast that is for 3yos going 1.5miles.

Quote:

Originally Posted by cmorioles

One thing that is lost in this, in my opinion, is that the premature move was the only way he was going to beat Dunkirk. Allowing him to run up front through moderate fractions (yes, moderate), and waiting til the end was not going to work either.

I think with a better ride, he was 2nd, just perhaps a different horse winning if he waits.

I disagree with this. And this is something that's fundamental to the way we're taught to interpret the game. If you look at the chart, Charitable Man would've given Dunkirk all he wanted, notice how he passes him, and this was all MTB would've needed. Moreover, sooner or later these jocks will learn that the best time to go after a loose speed is NOT on the turn but as late as possible in the lane. You might not get the speed this way but you have a better chance of getting a strong front runner later than earlier and you also salvage 2nd by not collapsing the race for the last mover (like MTB did).

MTB didn't need a perfect trip to win; that was SB's requirement. All MTB needed was a reasonably timed ride.

To date MTB's best races have come from sitting chilly usually in the rear of the field and then running a fast final 1/4, historically it is difficult enough to pass 3 horses in the Belmont stretch as Summer Bird did, is it really logical to expect MTB to pass the entire field saying he is dead last at the 1/4 pole before he makes his one quick burst especially outrunning a horse that was dead fit and relishing the distance? Factoring in that MTB was rank in the body of the race.