I know Oklahoma and Kansas both lost last night. If Pitt were to lose on Sunday and then is beaten before the Big East finals and UConn and Louisville are in that Final, Pitt's not getting a #1, especially with Louisville winning. UConn is the only one that can assure themselves a #1 seed on Saturday. You've also got to factor in if UNC is upset by Duke. Or if they beat Duke in the regular season finale but then is upset in the ACC tournament and Duke goes on to win it. Here's how I see it playing out:

Pitt beats UConn Saturday. UNC beats Duke. Memphis, Oklahoma, and Michigan St. all win out and win their conference titles. In the Big East tournament, Pitt loses before the final and UConn takes the title. The four #1's will be UNC, Memphis, UConn, Oklahoma.

I agree with the first part if Oklahoma takes care of business in the Big XII Tourney and UNC beats Duke and Memphis wins C-USA, but your last sentence is wrong. Pitt will be a 1-seed if they beat UConn on Saturday.

So then you think Pitt is a #1 seed regardless of what happens in the Big East tournament? What if Louisville or UConn wins it?

Doesn't matter. If they sweep UConn, they're a #1.

Pitt losing in the quarters would change things, but either losing in the semis to Louisville or the finals to UConn they'd still be a #1. On what possible basis does Memphis deserve a #1 seed? They aren't very good this year, they are just in a terrible conference. Give Syracuse the same schedule as Memphis and what do you think their record would be? Yet they are a 10-8 team in the Big East. The committee knows this and won't give Memphis a #1 unless none of Louisville, Michigan St, or Oklahoma win their conference tourney.

We somewhat agree. I don't think Memphis is deserving of a #1 and maybe not even a #2 based on how good they are. But if they go in carrying a #2 or #3 ranking, the nations longest winning streak, and a conference tournament title, they'll get a #1. The argument about how good another team would be if they switched conferences is one that doesn't make much sense to me. Perhaps if Syracuse was in Conference USA, they'd have the same record as Memphis and vice versa. That doesn't mean they are better. I don't think the Big East is nearly as strong as you seem to think it is. It's evenly matched with good teams but none of them outside of Pitt and UConn do I think are even remote threats to reach the Final Four.

The reason it makes sense here is that we are talking about knocking down a Big East team from a #1 for Memphis when Memphis has played four games against Big East teams, only one of which was on the road, against the 7th, 9th, 11th, and 13th place teams in the league and only went 2-2.

You seem to be way overvaluing the polls. This isn't college football and the BCS, the polls mean nothing to the selection committee. I do think Memphis is way better than Scott gives them credit for, but being #2 or #3 in the polls by way of other teams losing in much tougher conference tournaments isn't going to give them any more claim to a 1-seed than if they were #8 or #9.

The way I see it now there are 33 teams that are locks.

Then you have 8 teams that have a strong chance to lock things up:

Wisconsin - in with a home win over Indiana
Boston College - in with a home win over GT
Minnesota - in with a home win over Michigan
Florida - in with a home win over Kentucky
Dayton - in with a win at Xavier or home against Duquesne
Texas A&M - lock with a home win against Missouri, still likely even with a loss
Ohio St - in with a home win against Northwestern
Arizona - in with a home win against Cal or Stanford

IF those teams all take care of business you have four spots left and what those teams need to do to stay in consideration:
Maryland - win at Virginia and win 7-10 game in ACC Tourney
Providence - either win at Villanova (would make them a lock) or get one Big East tourney win
Rhode Island - win finale against UMass and then get to A10 tourney finals beating either Xavier or Dayton on the way
UNLV - win at San Diego St and at least make conference tourney semis
St Marys - make finals of WCC tourney and lose a very competitive game to Gonzaga
UAB - make finals of CUSA tourney and lose a very competitive game to Memphis or beat Memphis in semis and lose in finals
USC - win final two at home vs Oregon schools
Penn St - split remaining two games and win at least one B10 tourney game, could be a lock if they win both remaining games

Hard to imagine that enough of those teams don't get the job done to put teams like Cincy and Kansas State into play. There are a few teams (VT, Michigan, Northwestern, Kentucky, Auburn) that could enter the discussion if they pull the upset in their final games.

Jesus. Dude doing to the play-by-play just said Penn State is in the Tournament for sure. NO THEY'RE NOT. They still need at least one more win. Their nonconference schedule is an embarrassment.

Arizona is doing their best to not be in this tourney.

The way I see it right now...
LOCKS
ACC: UNC, Duke, FSU, Clemson, Wake Forest
Big East: Pitt, UConn, Louisville, Marquette, Villanova, Syracuse, West Virginia
Big Ten: Michigan State, Purdue, Illinois
Big XII: Kansas, Oklahoma, Missouri
Pac-10: UCLA, Washington, Arizona St, Cal
SEC: LSU, Tennessee
Mountain West: Utah, BYU
A-10: Xavier, Dayton
Conference USA: Memphis
Horizon: Butler
WCC: Gonzaga
MVC: Creighton

So that's 32 teams in 12 conferences. If all of the conferences are won by teams in the above list, plus 19 conferences likely to only get one bid, that leaves 14 spots open.

ACC: BC- computer profile sux and the losses aren't pretty but any team with wins over UNC, Duke, and FSU and finishes .500 or better in the ACC is probably good to go. IN
Maryland- similar to BC, computer profile sux and some bad losses but great wins over UNC and Michigan State plus fellow bubbler Michigan, need to get to .500 in the ACC by winning @ Virginia or a couple games in the ACC Tournament. IN
VT- going to be tough to get in with 13 losses, even with their tough schedule and some good wins. I think they're OUT.

Big East:
Providence- bad computer profile and only 5-11 against top 100, but 10-8 in the Big East keeps them in play. I think they're OUT right now but have a chance in the Big East Tournament to get back in.

Big Ten:
Wisconsin- Brutal schedule paying off, they have a bunch of wins against fellow bubble teams and likely will finish 10-8 in the Big Ten. Barring two horrific performances, they are IN.
Minnesota- 5-6 against the RPI top 50 and 8-8 against the top 100, fairly strong, and a key win over Louisville in the nonconference- as long as they win their opening round game in the Big Ten Tournament they're IN.
Ohio State- not playing well right now but they have done a lot of good overall, even if they lose to Northwestern in the finale, as long as they don't flame out in the Big Ten Tournament they are IN.
Michigan- Great nonconf but not much good in conference... probably need to beat Minnesota in the finale and win a game in the Big Ten Tournament.
Penn State- Huge bucket late last night to beat Illinois, but pathetic nonconference schedule holding back their RPI/SOS. 11-7 in the Big Ten would be tough to ignore.
Northwestern- Sneaking in very possible, they are playing great right now and have some beef on their resume including a win over FSU. The RPI will improve if they keep winning.
I think two of the bottom four get in and will sort itself out, so 7 teams from the Big Ten in total.

Big XII:
Oklahoma State- Very close to a lock with their RPI/SOS and solid wins, even if they lose to Oklahoma and flame in the first round of the Big XII Tournament they're probably still IN.
Texas A&M- 22 wins, no bad losses, a win over Mizzou would lock it up but I think a loss and a win or two in the Big XII tournament and they're still IN.

Pac-10:
Arizona- As Uncly said, her alma mater is really struggling right now, and has some losses to some fellow bubble teams, but can get back on the right side with a win against Stanford Saturday and a couple wins in the Pac-10 tournament. OUT, for now.

SEC:
This league sucks this year. They really only deserve two teams, but I think if South Carolina beats Georgia on Saturday they will be IN. Nobody else deserves a look, including Florida.

Mountain West:
UNLV- Couple bad losses but they are not going to leave out a team with a 5-3 record over the top 50 and 9-6 against the top 100 in a strong, strong Mountain West league this year. Very close to a lock. IN
New Mexico- Bad nonconference in both schedule and performance but are coming on strong, and if they win @ Wyoming they'll at least tie for the Mountain West crown, which would put them IN.
San Diego State- OOC they didn't beat anybody in the top 100, and is probably the odd team out in the Mountain West unless they do something special in the MW Tournament. OUT

So, that leaves three spots available from outside the top 7 leagues if everyone in the "lock" category holds serve. As it stands right now, I would give them to Rhode Island, Saint Mary's, and Siena if they need it, and if they don't, work backwards through the above BCS leagues, starting with Arizona and an 8th team from the Big Ten.

Following up Phil and Scott, just click here: http://countdowntomarch.blogspot.com...ship-week.html

The obvious omission above is Texas.

Texas ATM had a bad loss at home against Tulsa.
Ok St. had kicked Tulsa around just a few games earlier.
ATM also had a bad lose to Baylor.

Im tellin you guys this is just not a good team.
If they lose to MIssouri, they are going to have
to do really well in the tourney to get in. 22-8 looks good
but the level of the majority of the teams they
beat early on were absolutely awful (Div II level bad).
Imo they will finish 8-8 in a very mediocre conf.

Ok St. is playing well at the right time.
Texas is playing bad at the wrong time but
because of early wins over Villanova and UCLA
and their Griffinless win over OU late will get in
unless they get blown out by Kansas, finshing 9-7
in conf. and get blown out 1st round in the tourney.
Even then they will probably get in.

Only conf. I watch consistently so I defer on the
less seen teams in other conferences.

You may not think much of the conference, but Oklahoma State and Texas A&M have very clean resumes. You've yet to say why either team won't get in other than you don't like them. Each team only needs one more win to get in. And Texas is a lock, doesn't matter what happens at Kansas.

OK St. is in. They have played well at the right time of year.

Texas ATM is not yet.

Again...
Texas ATM played exceptionally weak teams early.
Had bad loses at home against Tulsa, and against Baylor.

Texas ATM will be praying that the minor conf. regular
season winners also win their conf. tourmnaments. We
could see many more "major conf bubble" teams out
if some of the other conf. send an "extra" team because
they win their conf. tournaments. ex. Wright state wins the Horizon.

If major conf tournaments yeild upsets this will further
dilute at large bids. ex- Georgetown winning the Big East.

Right now Texas ATM is playing great D against Mizz.
and giving them a spanking. They win this and they
have to be in. Lets see if thy can hold on.

A&M is in. Oklahoma State isn't yet.

KY has to be done after losing to FL dont they?

They're done, and Maryland is probably finished now too after losing to Virginia today.

Yup, Texas is in as a lock- thanks. I looked over the post 5 times trying to figure out who i knew i was missing and that was it. One less "bubble" spot. Will update shortly.