Derby Trail Forums - BELMONT WED. C/O: 'my thank you note'

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Quote:

Originally Posted by NoLuvForPletch

Maybe that should tell you something...

That La Ransom is a lock?

If that's what you are saying, I'm not that simplistic with my handicapping. There are way way too many factors involved for me to make that leap of faith.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bigsmc

That La Ransom is a lock?

If that's what you are saying, I'm not that simplistic with my handicapping. There are way way too many factors involved for me to make that leap of faith.

Nothing is a LOCK, though she is one of my singles today...like I said way back when in this thread, the winner of her last is A LOT better than her last race would indicate. Lost Without You ran a super race 2 weekends ago. And La Ransom is actually a pretty nice filly. 2nd off the layoff and KJD back aboard, speed from the rail (those things added up to victory in October). I'm very happy they kept her in because I wouldn't have bet her entrymate. I actually think La Ransom is the speed of the speed and if she scratched out in favor of her mate, the pace wouldn't have been as hot. I just hope she shows the same zip as last race and I'm pretty sure she'll still be in front at the 16th pole, the last 16th is the question.

Good Luck today

Quote:

Originally Posted by NoLuvForPletch

I'm not so sure she is the speed of the speed. She could beat them all to the turn, but she has to break well from that rail. The 9, 11 and possibly the 3 could give her trouble on the front end, depending on their tactics.

Good luck to you.

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Really? Please tell me the three or four horses that are going to take more money than him. I'm very curious.

Looks like I was a little generous. Stormy Mirage is the 6th choice at 9-1 with 1 MTP.

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Looks like I was a little generous. Stormy Mirage is the 6th choice at 9-1 with 1 MTP.

Since I'm out of my Pick 6 I'll have the remainder of my balance for the day on these 2 races...

33% win on Stormy Mirage
33% win on La Ransom
33% DD SM/LR ($97 WP right now)

Quote:

Originally Posted by NoLuvForPletch

Since I'm out of my Pick 6 I'll have the remainder of my balance for the day on these 2 races...

33% win on Stormy Mirage
33% win on La Ransom
33% DD SM/LR ($97 WP right now)

Good luck NLFP.

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Good luck NLFP.

Thanks...that was gross...lol

YET ANOTHER inside, perfect trip on the BEL turf.

I can't believe the winner ran that well after just watching the 5th and how those horses ran coming out of his race...uugh...

brutal day...

at least i'm gonna get a square price on La Ransom, but with how i've capped today, she should be a toss

good luck everyone...

Quote:

Originally Posted by NoLuvForPletch

I found two singles for me that will allow me to spread in the other 4 races. It's just the way I will play it, and my reasoning won't be for everyone. If I cash with my 2 singles, who I happen to really like, they will both be at a decent price and the payday could be on the large side.

Especially if I beat Dancing Tin Man in the 6th, who will be the favorite and is Litfin's Best Bet. DTM's late moves aren't as fast as they appear as he came home in 30 sec flat for his last 5/16's last time out and 29 and 3/5ths 2 back, after a crawl through the majority of the race. I LOVE Stormy Mirage here, and he'll be a fair price. One of the few to graduate at the Open MSW level, and even though he's facing winners for the first time, he absolutely flew home last time, getting his last 3f in 34 and 3/5ths. My second single will be a horse that most of you will not like, La Ransom. She may go off as high a price as ever today, but here is why I like. Last time she broke from the rail (10/18/7), sprinting on turf, she went right to the lead and never looked back. That was with KJD aboard and he's back on today. I don't see anyone who's going to go 22, 45 and 2/5ths even though there is other speed signed on. Lastly, the winner of her last is a lot better than she ran on the 22nd, trust me I know. And as everyone can see Lost Without You came back to win last time. So, I give this second off the layoff the big thumbs up.

Like I said, this isn't for everyone, but if I get through these two races clean, it'll give me quite a few chances in the other 4 races.

Good Luck to everyone.

A day like to today will make me stay away until next week. I can accept not being good enough to get it done with Stormy Mirage, but how I could read the FORM and come up with the idea that La Ransom would be on the lead and have the race run like that is poor. Though I'm not sure what Kent was doing since the filly had only passed like 3 horses in her whole life. :zz: :confused: :mad:

Have a good week everyone.

I am probably going to talk this 9 right in the winner circle, but how are they betting this horse. Sure that last race was fast, but it was a slop top, on a horse with a 400 tomilson rating...Think he is a bad play....

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav

NY bettors love Jimmy the Jerk (for good reason), the horse is bred well, and he's got the best figure showing. I don't like him because I think this is a tough spot for 1st turf. I'm surprised the 7 is so high.

Papa Bear if Channing Hill doesn't butcher the ride too bad

That was a freaking awesome ride by Coa. Argh @ Raynicks Fan coming so close at that price.

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

That was a freaking awesome ride by Coa.

How much did the 7 lose by?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav

How much did the 7 lose by?

Long neck.

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Long neck.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav

How much did the 7 lose by?

More about how the track held the winner together than how much the 7 lost by. On a 'fair' turf, the 7 is supposed to blow by him. Inside is the place to be these days on the turf.